Investment Rating - The investment rating for the insurance industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][7][28] Core Viewpoints - As of the end of Q2 2025, the balance of insurance funds in China reached 36.2 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.4% [2][3] - The insurance sector is increasing its allocation to long-term bonds to optimize asset-liability duration matching amid a backdrop of declining 10-year government bond yields and a scarcity of high-yield assets [9][24] - The stock investment scale for life insurance companies reached 2.7 trillion yuan, an increase of 605.2 billion yuan since the beginning of the year, while property insurance companies' stock investment scale reached 195.5 billion yuan, an increase of 35.4 billion yuan [2][24] Summary by Sections Insurance Fund Utilization - The insurance fund utilization balance reached a historical high of 36.2 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 17.4% [2][3] - Life insurance companies accounted for 90% of the total insurance fund utilization balance, with a year-on-year growth of 17.7% [6] - Property insurance companies had a fund utilization balance of 2.3 trillion yuan, growing 11.3% year-on-year [6] Bond and Equity Investments - The bond allocation for the insurance industry reached 17.9 trillion yuan, accounting for 49.3% of total investment, marking a historical high [11] - Life insurance companies' bond allocation was 16.9 trillion yuan, up 26.6% year-on-year, while property insurance companies' bond allocation was 0.95 trillion yuan, up 19.9% [11][24] - The stock allocation for the insurance sector reached 3.1 trillion yuan, with life insurance companies increasing their stock investments significantly [13][24] Asset Allocation Efficiency - The asset allocation efficiency of insurance funds decreased in Q2 2025, with a fund turnover rate of 35%, the lowest since Q3 2023 [22][24] - The report anticipates that the adjustment of preset interest rates and short-term behaviors will lead to an expansion in the industry's short-term premium scale, which may increase the asset allocation demand of insurance funds [24] Regulatory Changes - Recent regulatory adjustments have simplified the asset allocation standards for insurance funds, allowing companies with strong solvency to increase their equity investment limits [14][15] - The new regulations aim to enhance the investment space for leading insurance companies while maintaining strict controls for those with lower solvency [14][15]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the past three years, the re - allocation of insurance funds may have been an important factor in the flattening of the interest rate curve. When the supply of high - yield assets such as non - standard assets shrank, insurance funds favored ultra - long - term interest - rate bonds [5][28]. - The impact of the "premium开门红" on the bond market has weakened. Premium income is not the only factor determining the rhythm of insurance bond allocation. Insurance institutions often time their bond allocations, and high new premiums do not necessarily lead to high bond - allocation scales [5][34]. - After the reduction of the scheduled interest rate, the cost of new insurance liabilities will decrease, and the criteria for high - dividend assets to enter the pool may be lowered. Insurance may gradually focus on overseas income - generating assets [6][61]. - Due to the change in accounting standards and the pursuit of risk - return ratio and profit - smoothing mechanisms, insurance funds prefer high - dividend assets. Under the new accounting standards, most bonds are placed in the FVOCI account, and the trading attributes and the characteristic of realizing profits at the end of the quarter have been amplified [6][86]. - The "Solvency II" has higher requirements for the duration and transparency of insurance assets, but for most insurance institutions, the level of risk factors alone is difficult to affect the allocation preference of insurance funds [6][118]. - The net secondary - market purchases of treasury bonds, policy - bank bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds (excluding policy - bank bonds) by insurance institutions are highly correlated with the actual changes in their holdings, which is worthy of tracking [6]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 In recent years, insurance funds may have been an important factor in the flattening of the interest rate curve - Premiums are an important source of insurance funds. The long - term nature of insurance liabilities makes insurance funds prefer long - term assets. The proportion of life insurance premiums in total premiums has increased from 52% in 2022 to 56% in 2024 [25]. - When the supply of high - yield non - standard assets shrank, insurance funds re - allocated to ultra - long - term interest - rate bonds, resulting in the flattening of the interest rate curve. From 2022Q2 to 2025Q1, the proportion of non - standard assets in total insurance funds decreased from 26.9% to 19.3%, and the term spread between 30Y and 10Y treasury bonds changed from "mean - reversion" to "downward - trend" after 2020 [28]. 3.2 The impact of the "premium开门红" on the bond market has weakened, and currently, insurance asset allocation values the risk - return ratio more - In the past, due to the lack of long - term government bond issuance in January, insurance funds flowed into the secondary market in the early part of the year. However, in recent years, the supply of long - term government bonds in the primary market has increased, and the influence on the secondary market has weakened [34]. - Premium income is not the only factor determining the rhythm of insurance bond allocation. The reasons include sufficient primary - market supply, relatively high deposit returns, and the importance of timing bond allocation to increase returns in a low - interest - rate environment [41]. - Before the reduction of the scheduled interest rate, insurance institutions usually try to boost premiums but time their bond allocations. Although the reduction of the scheduled interest rate on August 31, 2025, was greater than expected, the "premium - boosting" phenomenon was not obvious, and the preference for bond market allocation weakened. After the reduction, the cost of new insurance liabilities decreased, and the attractiveness of 30Y treasury bonds and 20Y and above local government bonds increased when their YTM was higher than 2% [51][61]. - Insurance may focus on overseas fixed - income assets. The expansion of the scope of eligible investors for the Southbound Bond Connect is imminent, which may increase the proportion of overseas investment by insurance institutions and help improve investment returns [64]. 3.3 Stock - bond rebalancing and the switch between old and new accounting standards make high - dividend assets more popular - As the domestic long - term bond yield may remain low for a long time, insurance companies may seek high - yield fixed - income assets overseas and increase their allocation of equities [73]. - Under the new accounting standards, most bonds are placed in the FVOCI account, and the trading attributes and the characteristic of realizing profits at the end of the quarter have been amplified. Insurance institutions prefer to buy high - dividend assets and re - classify them into the FVOCI account to smooth profit fluctuations [86][97]. - High - dividend equity assets can support investment returns when bond yields are low. Their full - return index has performed better than ultra - long - term treasury bonds since 2019 [103]. 3.4 "Solvency II" has higher requirements for the duration and transparency of insurance assets - Since 2023, the solvency adequacy ratio of insurance institutions has been steadily increasing. As of 2025Q1, the comprehensive solvency adequacy ratio of Chinese insurance companies reached 204.5%, and the core solvency adequacy ratio reached 146.5% [110]. - "Solvency II" requires a higher degree of matching between asset and liability durations. If the asset duration is less than the liability duration, the minimum capital for interest - rate risk will increase rapidly under stress - testing scenarios [113]. - Holding assets such as trusts, real estate, and non - standard assets will increase the risk factor, raise the minimum risk capital, and lower the solvency adequacy ratio. However, for most insurance institutions, the level of risk factors alone is difficult to affect their asset - allocation preferences [118]. 3.5 Insurance focuses on primary - market subscriptions and supplements with secondary - market transactions 5.1 Which types of bonds in the cash - bond trading data of insurance institutions are worthy of high - frequency tracking - The net secondary - market purchases of treasury bonds, policy - bank bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds (excluding policy - bank bonds) by insurance institutions are highly correlated with the actual changes in their holdings. In 2024, insurance institutions showed more obvious trading behaviors in the secondary market [119]. 5.2 Rules for insurance trading of treasury bonds - Insurance institutions tend to increase their net purchases of long - term treasury bonds at the end of the quarter and sell them at the beginning of the next quarter. Since 2023, their net purchases of 30Y treasury bonds have increased significantly [125]. - Although there are obvious rules for insurance institutions' trading of treasury bonds at the end of the quarter, it is difficult for a single type of investor to affect the bond - market trend [136]. 5.3 Insurance trading of local government bonds: The spread can be used as a leading indicator - The supply pressure of local government bonds affects the spread, which in turn affects the net secondary - market purchases of local government bonds by insurance institutions. The spread of local government bonds is an important indicator for judging the net - buying power of insurance institutions in the secondary market. When the spread increases by 5 - 6bp within a month, the net - buying scale of insurance institutions may increase significantly [138]. 5.4 Insurance trading strategy for Tier 2 and perpetual bonds - Since May 2024, insurance institutions have continuously sold medium - and long - term Tier 2 and perpetual bonds because these bonds cannot pass the cash - flow test and most are re - classified into the FVTPL account, which has a greater impact on current profits [152].

Regulatory Dynamics - The Financial Regulatory Bureau has issued guidelines to prevent excessive competition in dividend levels for insurance products, requiring justification for proposed dividend levels under certain conditions [7][8]. - The Financial Regulatory Bureau, in collaboration with the Shanghai Municipal Government, has released an action plan to support the construction of Shanghai as an international financial center [9]. - The Financial Regulatory Bureau has recognized China Reinsurance (Group) Corporation as an internationally active insurance group, aiming to enhance its risk management and international competitiveness [10]. - The Central Financial Committee has emphasized the need to innovate in shipping insurance and reinsurance businesses to align with the development of Shanghai as an international financial center [11]. - The Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security reported that the national enterprise annuity fund has surpassed 3.7 trillion, with a cumulative return rate of 7.46% over the past three years [12]. Company Dynamics - Ping An Life has increased its stake in Postal Savings Bank by acquiring 22.797 million shares, raising its holding to 12.07% [25]. - China Ping An has also increased its stake in Agricultural Bank of China by 2.58 billion HKD, bringing its holding to 13.12% [27]. - China Ping An announced a cash dividend of 1.62 CNY per share to be distributed on June 30 [32]. - Zhong Postal Insurance has been approved to increase its registered capital to 32.643 billion [29]. - China Life Insurance has launched its first guaranteed renewable 10-year medical insurance product [68]. Industry Dynamics - The Hong Kong insurance market is experiencing a surge in demand as customers rush to secure high-yield policies before new regulations take effect [56]. - New insurance products with a 1.5% guaranteed interest rate have been introduced, marking a shift in the market as companies adjust to lower interest rates [57]. - The proportion of newly launched dividend insurance products has increased to 37%, up 9 percentage points year-on-year [58]. - The IPE has released a list of the top 500 asset management companies for 2025, with 13 Chinese insurance institutions making the list [59]. - Over 90% of insurance asset management products have reported positive returns, with the highest returns exceeding 26% in the past six months [62].

Core Viewpoint - The overall economic operation in China is stable with progress in high-quality development, but external environments are increasingly complex and challenging for investment management [1] Investment Performance of Insurance Companies - As of the first quarter of 2025, five listed insurance companies in China reported a steady growth in investment assets, with varying investment yield performance due to capital market fluctuations [1] - China Life's investment assets reached 68,191.73 billion yuan, a 3.1% increase from the end of 2024, with total investment income of 537.67 billion yuan and an investment yield of 2.75% [1] - Ping An Insurance's investment portfolio exceeded 5.92 trillion yuan, growing by 3.3%, with a non-annualized comprehensive investment yield of 1.3%, up by 0.2% year-on-year [1] - China Pacific Insurance's investment assets were 28,102.08 billion yuan, a 2.8% increase, with a net investment yield of 0.8%, unchanged year-on-year, and a total investment yield of 1.0%, down by 0.3% [1] - New China Life's investment assets were 16,876.97 billion yuan, with an annualized total investment yield of 5.7% and an annualized comprehensive investment yield of 2.8% [1] - China Re did not provide specific investment details [1] Investment Strategies - China Life emphasizes long-term asset allocation management, focusing on fixed income investments and balanced equity investments for long-term growth [2] - Ping An actively responds to interest rate risks by adjusting its bond investments and increasing allocations in value and technology growth equities, while diversifying into alternative assets [3] - China Pacific focuses on long-term fixed income assets and actively manages equity investments to enhance performance [3] Market Trends and Regulatory Changes - Excluding China Re, the total investment assets of listed insurance companies grew by 3.2%, with New China Life showing the fastest growth at 3.6% [4] - The overall investment yield for most insurance companies declined, attributed to rising interest rates and falling bond markets [4] - In April, the Financial Regulatory Authority announced an increase in the upper limit for equity asset allocation, which is expected to optimize insurance fund asset allocation and provide more options for investment [4] - The new dynamic pricing mechanism for insurance products is anticipated to enhance the connection between assets and liabilities, leading to better duration matching and risk mitigation [4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent notification from the National Financial Supervision Administration aims to optimize the asset allocation of insurance funds, enhancing their role in supporting the real economy and promoting the development of strategic emerging industries [2][3]. Summary by Sections Adjustment of Equity Asset Allocation - The upper limit for equity asset allocation has been raised, simplifying the tiered standards and increasing the equity asset ratio corresponding to certain solvency adequacy levels by 5%, thereby expanding the investment space for equity and providing more equity capital for the real economy [2][3]. Encouragement of Investment in Venture Capital Funds - The notification emphasizes increasing the concentration ratio for investments in venture capital funds, guiding insurance funds to intensify their equity investments in national strategic emerging industries, thus effectively serving the new quality productivity [2][3]. Relaxation of Tax-Deferred Pension Ratio Regulations - The regulatory requirements for tax-deferred pension ratios have been relaxed, clarifying that the investment ratio for ordinary accounts of tax-deferred pension insurance will no longer be calculated separately, which supports the high-quality development of the third pillar of pension insurance [2][3].