Group 1 - The report highlights a deepening global credit risk differentiation, with France's sovereign rating downgraded to A+ and increasing default pressure on US corporations, suggesting a focus on extending duration and upgrading ratings in investment strategies [1][6][29] - The global bond market is driven by three main themes: monetary policy outlook, structural changes in sovereign debt, and international financial system reforms [6][8] - The report indicates that emerging market bonds are showing significant differentiation, with major markets enhancing resilience through dollar and local currency issuance, while frontier markets face sustainability pressures [6][8] Group 2 - The report notes that the US Treasury yield curve has shifted to a bull steepening shape, with the 10-year yield dropping to 4.011% and the 2-year yield declining even more significantly [8][9] - European sovereign bond yields have also seen substantial declines, with the UK 10-year yield plummeting by 25.83 basis points and Germany's 10-year yield falling by 14 basis points [9][10] - The credit market is showing a clear differentiation, with investment-grade corporate bonds performing strongly and high-yield bonds under pressure, as evidenced by the G-spread narrowing for investment-grade bonds while widening for high-yield bonds [11][28] Group 3 - The report emphasizes the need for defensive and structural opportunities in current investment strategies, recommending a moderate extension of duration and an overweight in investment-grade bonds [6][11] - The report suggests increasing allocations to emerging market dollar bonds while avoiding frontier market foreign currency debt, highlighting the resilience of major emerging markets [6][11] - The report also points out the narrowing of the offshore RMB bond yield spread, indicating improved liquidity and demand for RMB assets [15][24]

远东研究·债市研究 2025 年 10 月 17 日 作 者：冯祖涵，FRM 邮 箱：research@fecr.com.cn 信用债利差整体走阔，长久期城投债信用分化缓解 ——2025 年第三季度债券市场信用利差分析 摘 要 2025 年第三季度，债券市场各期限各等级信用利差整体呈走阔趋势。从等 级利差差值上看，各期限 AA-利差与 AAA 级利差的差值整体呈下降走势，说明 第三季度末各期限信用债信用分化程度有所下降。 从产业债角度来看，第三季度行业信用利差变动不一，但整体波动幅度较 小。其中，其中，休闲服务、综合、建筑装饰、机械设备、有色金属、采掘等行 业信用利差明显上行，银行与房地产行业信用利差有所收窄。房地产行业中等信 用等级（AA 级）行业利差继续走阔，或因房地产市场供求关系仍待改善，弱资 质房地产企业仍面临较高的信用风险。 从城投债角度来看，第三季度各期限各级别城投债信用利差整体呈走阔趋 势，但涨幅相对有限。7 月 30 日，中共中央政治局会议指出，要持续防范化解 重点领域风险，积极稳妥化解地方政府债务风险，严禁新增隐性债务，有力有序 有效推进地方融资平台出清。在地方化债持续推进、融资平台加速出清 ...