（数据来源：wind资讯，截至20250725） 消息面上，上周债市调整，利差有所走阔，1-3Y回到历史3%以内分位数，但还是低位，分析认为继续调整的可能性依然存 在。普通商金债利差也有走阔，1-5Y20%以内分位数，二级和永续的信用利差也有所修复，目前3Y回到历史15%左右分位 数，性价比凸显。 | 数据日期 | | 2025-07-25 | | | | | | | 分位数起始日期 | | 2017-01-03 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 信用债到期收益率 | (%) | | | | | 历史分位数 | | | | 评级/期限 | 0.5Y | 1Y | 1.5Y | 2Y | 2.5Y | 3Y | 5Y | 0.5Y | 1Y | 2Y | 3Y | 5Y | | 国开债 | 1.46 | 1.52 | 1.57 | 1.64 | 1.67 | 1.68 | 1.70 | 4.0% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.2% | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market currently shows a pattern of short - end repair and long - end differentiation. Short - term high - grade credit bonds are performing well, while long - term low - grade credit bonds still have room for spread repair. [2][6][15] - The liability - side stability of the wealth management market provides support for credit bond allocation. The net - loss ratio is low, and the scale fluctuation is narrowing. [7] - After the cross - month point, the capital market sentiment has eased, and the selling pressure on credit bonds has weakened. Different institutional behaviors have reshaped the market structure. [8] - It is recommended to adopt a progressive allocation strategy from short to long along the yield curve. [9][15] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Short Credit Repair, Long - Duration Waiting for Progressive Layout - From March 10th to 14th, short - term credit bonds showed relative advantages. The 1 - year - below AAA credit bond index rose by 0.05%, while the 10 - year - above treasury bond full - price index adjusted by - 1.12%. [16] - The short - end repair is in progress, but the long - end low - grade credit bond yield curve and spread repair are still lagging. As of the latest point, the yield of AA - rated 5 - year bonds has increased by about 10 basis points compared with the end of September last year, and the 5 - year AA - credit spread has widened by about 31 basis points. [17] 3.2 Wealth Management Net - Loss Ratio Shows Structural Differentiation and Seasonal Repair Characteristics - The current net - loss ratio of wealth management products is generally controllable. The net - loss ratios of state - owned and joint - stock wealth management subsidiaries are around 3%, and those of city and rural commercial banks are around 3.5% and 5% respectively. [19] - The scale of joint - stock wealth management subsidiaries has been gently expanding. The actual redemption pressure is controllable as the average redemption yield is higher than the lower limit of the performance benchmark. [21] 3.3 Capital Sentiment Eases, Credit Bond Selling Pressure Alleviates - After the cross - month point, the capital market sentiment index gradually declined. The selling pressure on credit bonds in the second half - week of March 10th - 14th decreased significantly, with the GVN of credit bonds dropping from 9156 on March 11th to 6322. [27][29] 3.4 Short - End Repair Momentum Strengthens and Long - End Spread Structure Adjusts in Parallel - The short - end pricing pressure of the bond market has been significantly relieved. For example, the yield of 1 - month commercial bank secondary capital bonds has decreased by 9 basis points from March 7th to 14th, and the yield of 1 - month urban investment bonds has decreased by 8 basis points. [34] - The medium - and long - term note market shows a term - differentiation feature. The yield of 3 - year varieties has decreased by 1 basis point, but the spread of 10 - year varieties has widened by 10 basis points. [34] 3.5 Medium - and Long - Duration Credit Bond Allocation Momentum Increases Structurally - Wealth management products show a characteristic of extending duration. From March 10th to 14th, the net purchase of 3 - year and 5 - year credit bonds was 340 million yuan and 260 million yuan respectively, and the purchase of 5 - year bonds increased by 150 million yuan compared with the previous week. [43] - Insurance institutions have increased their allocation of ultra - long - term bonds, with the net purchase of 10 - year credit bonds remaining at around 3 billion yuan. [43] - There is a game pattern of "insurance extending duration, funds shortening duration" among institutions. [45] 3.6 Progressive Allocation Strategy to Deal with Market Disagreements - Short - term high - grade credit bonds can provide an operation space for trading - type funds. Medium - term 3 - 5 - year varieties are suitable for allocation - type funds for bottom - position layout. Long - term oversold bonds need to select urban investment bonds in regions with strong fiscal strength. [9] - It is recommended to maintain a neutral portfolio duration and keep a dynamic balance between treasury bonds and credit bonds. [9]