Investment Rating - The industry rating for precious metals is "Overweight" (Maintain) [7] Core Insights - The report highlights that the long-term increase in gold holdings by central banks is driven by concerns over the creditworthiness of dollar assets, the need for stable exchange rates in extreme scenarios, and geopolitical risks. It is projected that central banks will continue to increase their gold reserves, stabilizing at around 800 tons per year from 2026 to 2030 [2] - The report anticipates that the average gold price could rise to between $5,400 and $6,800 per ounce from 2026 to 2028, driven by a potential increase in the investment allocation of gold in global financial assets [6] Summary by Sections Section 1: Gold Price Projections - The average gold price is expected to reach $6,800 per ounce by 2028, with projections for 2026 and 2027 being $5,463 and $6,059 per ounce respectively. This is based on historical distribution of gold allocation and structural shifts due to de-dollarization and geopolitical factors [6][12] Section 2: Central Bank Demand - Central banks are expected to maintain a long-term increase in gold holdings, with the proportion of gold in reserves projected to rise to 21.4% by mid-2025. If this proportion reaches the historical median of 34% by 2035, the demand for gold could continue to grow [2] Section 3: Non-Investment Demand - Non-investment demand for gold, primarily from jewelry and industrial uses, is expected to stabilize. Jewelry demand is projected to average around 1,951 tons per year, while industrial demand is expected to remain steady at approximately 332 tons per year [3] Section 4: Investment Demand - The report estimates that the stock of gold allocated for personal and institutional investment will gradually increase, with projections for 2026, 2027, and 2028 being 85,713 tons, 86,642 tons, and 87,953 tons respectively [4] Section 5: Financial Asset Allocation - There is still room for increased allocation of gold in global financial assets, with the expected market value of investable gold reaching approximately $15.1 trillion, $16.9 trillion, and $19.3 trillion in 2026, 2027, and 2028 respectively [5][16]

在重要且极为火爆的重大风险转移(SRT)市场中，投资者正越来越倾向于为欧洲银行背负的、规模超 2000亿欧元(约2325亿美元)且持续恶化的商业房地产贷款提供对冲，但这一过程需付出高昂代价。 陷入困境的德国抵押贷款银行股份公司(Deutsche Pfandbriefbank AG)——该机构正急于剥离其在美国商 业地产债务中的各类敞口——于去年12月首次涉足SRT市场。据知情人士透露，这笔具有里程碑意义的 交易充分表明，为高风险商业房地产贷款提供保险的投资者，能够获得极其可观的利差回报。 据上述人士透露，在PBB(德国抵押贷款银行股份公司)的SRT交易评估中，最初有20余家机构受邀参与 考察，其中约三分之二的机构最终提交了无约束力报价。此次需求超预期的核心原因在于：参考贷款组 合规模较小(涵盖不到30笔贷款)，且高度集中于美国写字楼领域——其中多笔贷款已被划入第二阶段(即 信用风险显著上升但尚未违约)。 这家总部位于加兴的银行最终于2025年12月22日发布公告，正式敲定由布鲁克菲尔德集团旗下的橡树资 本管理公司为其20亿美元贷款提供信用风险对冲。在此次由Alvarez&Marsal Financial Se ...