因此，通过传统手段抑制通胀反而加剧了经济收缩的压力。许多政府如今面临"滞胀"威胁 —— 即经济衰退伴随通货膨胀。央行深知这种权衡关系：通胀下 降需以经济增长的相应收缩为代价。 作者：Jomo Kwame Sundaram，联合国前官员、马来西亚经济学家、亚太智库研究员 南非约翰内斯堡，国际新闻社。2025年9月23日，美国总统特朗普对美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔的尖刻抨击，重新唤起了人们对央行独立性的支持 —— 这种 独立性长期以来被强大的金融利益集团所滥用，损害了经济增长与公平性。 独立的中央银行本应提升货币政策的质量、公平性以及对经济增长的影响力。但如今，它们主要服务于强大的金融利益集团，其紧缩性和倒退性政策导致经 济缓慢且不均衡的增长。 独立于谁？ 中央银行的设立旨在通过制定货币政策来塑造金融环境，从而实现国家经济目标。近几十年来，新的政策共识认为独立的中央银行应制定货币政策。因此， 在较小规模的开放型发展中国家，这些银行往往受到强大金融利益集团（通常是外国势力）的裹挟。 过去半个世纪里，许多政府在国际金融势力影响下修改法律，确立中央银行独立于行政和立法部门与政府地位平等。与此同时，随着"通货膨胀目标制"成 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasizes a monetary policy framework that is primarily domestic-focused, supportive, and data-driven, distinguishing it from the inflation-targeting approaches of major developed economies [1][2][3]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Principles - The principle of "taking the initiative" in monetary policy means that adjustments will be based on domestic economic conditions rather than merely following global trends [1][2]. - The supportive stance of monetary policy indicates a low interest rate environment, similar to a phase of moderate easing [1][4]. - The "data-based" approach signifies that monetary policy adjustments will rely heavily on economic data, making it more complex due to multiple targets [1][6][7]. Group 2: Economic Context and Expectations - Following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, the PBOC has more room to maneuver its monetary policy, with some market participants anticipating potential rate cuts within the year [3][8]. - Recent economic data from July and August shows signs of weakness, prompting discussions about the likelihood of further rate cuts [8][10]. - Key economic indicators, such as retail sales and fixed asset investment, have shown a slowdown, reinforcing the need for supportive monetary measures [8][10]. Group 3: Future Policy Tools - The PBOC plans to utilize various monetary policy tools to ensure liquidity and support economic recovery, with a focus on reducing financing costs [8][9]. - The potential for new structural monetary policy tools has been highlighted, which could leverage commercial bank funding to stimulate investment [11].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current economic situation characterized by low inflation and its historical implications, emphasizing the need for coordinated macroeconomic policies to stimulate nominal economic growth and stabilize prices [2][4][5]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The CPI has fluctuated around 0% for 27 months, while the PPI has seen a decline of 3.6%, marking 33 consecutive months of negative growth [2]. - The GDP deflator index has been negative for nine consecutive quarters, surpassing the conditions seen during the 1998 Asian financial crisis [2]. - The sluggish price environment has led to a decline in nominal economic growth, reaching new lows since 2023, which has weakened market expectations and increased financial risks [2]. Group 2: Policy Recommendations - The article suggests a dual approach to boost nominal economic growth by addressing both supply and demand sides, including incorporating a broad price index into macroeconomic targets and implementing unconventional counter-cyclical policies [4]. - It emphasizes the importance of enhancing fiscal and monetary policies, particularly through increased fiscal spending and the use of unconventional monetary measures to combat low inflation [5]. - The need for real estate market stabilization is highlighted, advocating for the removal of restrictions in first-tier cities to stimulate demand and improve market confidence [6]. Group 3: Sector-Specific Insights - The article notes that the sluggish performance in real estate investment, combined with tariff impacts, has significantly affected the PPI, particularly through midstream chemical products, which account for over 60% of PPI fluctuations [2]. - It discusses the positive effects of recent regulations aimed at curbing price competition in emerging industries like new energy vehicles and lithium batteries, which have helped stabilize prices and alleviate operational pressures on companies [3]. Group 4: Consumer and Employment Strategies - To enhance service consumption, the article recommends stabilizing and expanding employment, particularly in sectors with high demand, and improving social security systems to support low-income groups [7]. - It advocates for increased fiscal investment in essential services and consumer subsidies to stimulate sustainable consumption growth [7]. - The article also emphasizes the importance of urbanization strategies that focus on human capital accumulation and consumption quality improvement as key drivers for future economic growth [8].

Group 1: Monetary Policy Challenges - The central theme of the central bank's annual meeting is "Monetary Policy and Its Challenges," focusing on the dual objectives of full employment and price stability faced by the Federal Reserve [1] - The Federal Reserve has been committed to achieving its dual mandate from Congress, aiming for sustainable economic growth in the U.S. [1][2] - The U.S. economy has entered its longest recorded growth cycle, with a significant decrease in unemployment rates and stable inflation around 2% until 2019 [2][3] Group 2: Historical Context and Economic Phases - The analysis framework divides U.S. economic development since World War II into three significant periods, each facing critical issues [3][4] - The first period (1950-1982) dealt with the challenge of maintaining price stability amidst economic fluctuations and inflation pressures [4][5] - The second period (1983-2009) saw a transition from "Great Moderation" to "Great Recession," raising concerns about financial excesses and the sustainability of economic growth [6][8] - The third period (2010-2019) is characterized by a new normal, with low inflation and interest rates, posing challenges for the Federal Reserve in achieving its dual objectives [9][10] Group 3: Key Issues in Monetary Policy - The first key issue is whether central banks can resist inflationary pressures while maintaining their inflation targets, with the Federal Reserve successfully keeping average inflation below 2% over the past 25 years [10][11] - The second issue revolves around whether long-term economic prosperity supported by monetary policy inevitably leads to financial excesses, highlighting the need for vigilant risk management [11][12] - The third issue focuses on how the Federal Reserve can achieve full employment and price stability in a low-inflation, low-interest-rate environment, emphasizing the importance of a robust monetary policy framework [12][13] Group 4: Trade Policy Uncertainty - Incorporating trade policy uncertainty into the monetary policy framework presents a new challenge, as trade policy is primarily determined by Congress and the federal government [13][14] - The Federal Reserve will closely monitor the impact of trade policy uncertainty on macroeconomic conditions, particularly in light of global economic slowdowns and low inflation [14][15] Group 5: Reevaluation of Monetary Policy Framework - The need to reassess the monetary policy framework arises from significant changes in the macroeconomic and financial landscape since the 2008 financial crisis [15][16] - Discussions are ongoing regarding the implications of low-interest-rate policies, the use of different policy tools in normal versus crisis periods, and improving communication mechanisms related to monetary policy [15][16]