新华财经上海8月13日电（记者杨溢仁）本周前三天，债券市场延续震荡盘整格局，"股债跷跷板"效应 是重要影响因素之一。银行间利率债收益率在上行两日之后有所回落，10年期国债收益率在13日尾盘下 行0.75BP至1.72%。 多家机构分析认为，短期内10年期国债收益率预计将在1.65%至1.75%区间内波动。至于收益率能否有 效突破1.65%甚至创出新低，市场普遍认为可能需要等待国内实质性的降息政策落地提供更强驱动。 股债资金分流持续扰动债市 "近期股市展现出一定的赚钱效应，"一位券商固收部门负责人向记者表示，"7月以来，前期风险资产价 格上涨等因素，促使部分投资者转向看多股市。这种观点一旦形成，容易带动市场对未来盈利预期改善 等积极情绪的涌现。" 该负责人认为，当前股市的赚钱效应驱动模式与去年债市情况有相似之处。"目前10年期国债收益率处 于1.73%水平，较去年末上行5.2BP。当投资者更看好股市时，部分债市资金向股市转移是自然现象。" 进一步分析，当前税收政策调整可能推升一级市场发行利率。为确保新券平稳发行，央行或释放稳定信 号，甚至不排除重新开展公开市场操作以维护短期市场节奏的连贯性。 资金的这种跨市场流 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the week from July 20th to July 26th, among the 49 updated high - frequency indicators in Guojin Securities' fixed - income fundamental monitoring system, the number of "bullish" and "bearish" indicators is 27 and 22 respectively. "Bullish" factors are mainly reflected in the start - up rates of most industries, real estate transaction areas, consumption, travel, exports, and most agricultural product prices, while "bearish" factors are mainly shown in coal consumption, crude steel production, real estate prices, industrial product inventory and demand, etc. [2][17] - The signals released by the ten interest rate synchronous indicators are mainly "bearish", accounting for 6/10. Compared with last week, the US dollar index sent a "bearish" signal. [3][19] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Thermometer - **Overview**: Among the 49 updated high - frequency indicators, 27 are "bullish" and 22 are "bearish" for the bond market. [2][17] - **High - frequency Indicator Tracking**: - **Absolute Value Tracking**: Many indicators are monitored, such as economic growth (e.g., daily coal consumption and crude steel production), industrial production (e.g., start - up rates of various industries), real estate (e.g., housing and land transaction areas), infrastructure, inventory, consumption, travel, and inflation. The qualitative judgment for each indicator is provided, with some being "bullish" and some "bearish". [14] - **Monthly Year - on - Year Tracking**: Similar to the absolute value tracking, various economic aspects are covered, and the year - on - year changes and qualitative judgments for each indicator are presented. [16] 3.2 Interest Rate Synchronous Indicators - **Overview**: The signals released by the ten interest rate synchronous indicators are mainly "bearish", with a proportion of 6/10. The US dollar index sent a "bearish" signal compared with last week. [3][19] - **Specific Indicators**: - **Enterprise Medium - and Long - Term Loan Balance Growth Rate**: 8.3%, lower than the previous value of 8.4%, "bullish". [3][18][19] - **Building Materials Composite Index**: 113.9, higher than the previous value of 111.3, "bearish". [3][18][19] - **BCI: Enterprise Recruitment Prospective Index**: 49.1%, lower than the previous value of 50.5%, "bullish". [3][18][19] - **Unemployment Benefit Eligibility Internet Search Index Year - on - Year (6MMA)**: 105.2%, lower than the previous value of 105.7%, "bearish". [3][18][19] - **PMI New Export Orders Trend Value**: - 0.25%, lower than the previous value of - 0.24%, "bullish". [3][18][19] - **PMI Supply - Demand Balance Trend Value**: 0.17%, higher than the previous value of 0.16%, "bearish". [3][18][19] - **Durable Goods Price**: 0.943, lower than the previous value of 0.944, "bullish". [3][18][19] - **Bill Financing**: 14.7 trillion, lower than the previous value of 15.1 trillion, "bearish". [3][18][19] - **US Dollar Index**: 97.5, lower than the previous value of 98.4, "bearish". [3][18][19] - **Copper - Gold Ratio**: 17.0, higher than the previous value of 16.6, "bearish". [3][18][19]