Report Information Report Title - "National Debt Daily" [1] Report Date - August 1, 2025 [2] Researchers - He Zhuoqiao (Macro Precious Metals), contact: 18665641296, email: hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com, futures qualification number: F3008762 [3] - Huang Wenxin (National Debt and Container Shipping), contact: 021 - 60635739, email: huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com, futures qualification number: F3051589 [3] - Nie Jiayi (Stock Index), contact: 021 - 60635735, email: niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com, futures qualification number: F03124070 [3] Key Points Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Report Core View - Since mid - late July, market risk preference has significantly increased. The strong performance of the stock market, the recovery of commodities, and the rising inflation expectations have pressured the bond market. However, the bond market did not experience a panic - driven decline. The long - term bullish environment for the bond market remains unchanged due to the potential economic downturn and the room for monetary easing. The third quarter is likely a policy observation period [11][12] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Performance**: Commodity price drops dragged down cyclical stocks and the stock market, cooling inflation expectations and leading to a full - line rebound in national debt futures. The yields of major term interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market all rose by about 1 - 2bp, while the yield of the 10 - year active bond 250011 dropped by 1.6bp to 1.7040% [8][9] - **Funding Market**: Cross - month funds were abundant, and the central bank shifted to a net withdrawal. There were 3310 billion yuan of reverse repurchases due, and the central bank conducted 2832 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 478 billion yuan. Short - term interest rates rose slightly but remained at a loose level, and medium - and long - term funds were stable and abundant [10] - **Conclusion**: The bond market adjustment was not a panic - driven decline. The sustainability of the rally in cyclical stocks and commodities is questionable. If economic growth and inflation expectations are revised, the bond market will recover. In the long run, the bullish environment for the bond market remains unchanged, but the third quarter is likely a policy observation period [11][12] 2. Industry News - **Macro Data**: China's official non - manufacturing PMI in July was 50.1, down 0.4 percentage points month - on - month but still above the critical point. The official manufacturing PMI was 49.3, down 0.4 percentage points, and the composite PMI output index was 50.2, down 0.5 percentage points, indicating that overall business activities remained in an expansionary range [13] - **Macro Policy**: The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee decided to hold the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee in October. It emphasized maintaining policy continuity and stability, implementing a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, and taking various measures to support the economy and resolve risks [14] 3. Data Overview - **National Debt Futures Market**: Data on trading, including opening prices, closing prices, settlement prices, price changes, trading volumes, open interests, etc., of various national debt futures contracts on July 31 were presented [6] - **Money Market**: Information on SHIBOR term structure changes, SHIBOR trends, inter - bank pledged repurchase weighted interest rate changes, and silver - deposit inter - bank pledged repurchase rate changes was provided [28][32] - **Derivatives Market**: Information on Shibor3M interest rate swap fixing curves and FR007 interest rate swap fixing curves was provided [34]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records primarily discuss the Chinese bond market and its relation to macroeconomic factors, including trade tensions, fiscal policy, and consumer behavior [1][2][4][5]. Key Points and Arguments Economic Growth and Investment - The impact of the trade war has led to a decline in exports, although the decline was less severe than expected. The "rush to export" effect has already been realized, and a significant slowdown in growth is anticipated in Q3 [1][2]. - Investment in Q3 will rely on new policy financial tools designed to reduce initial funding burdens on local governments and enhance project execution, aiming for a GDP growth target of around 5% for the year [1][2][5]. - The probability of further incremental stimulus policies is low due to the completion of GDP progress exceeding expectations from January to July [3][5]. Consumer Behavior - Consumer subsidy management is stricter this year, resulting in a slower pace compared to last year, but it still provides a buffer for economic data. There is potential for revitalizing durable goods consumption [1][2][5]. Real Estate Market - The probability of the real estate market becoming a significant driver of economic growth this year is low, based on current fundamentals and policy environment analysis [6]. Monetary Policy and Inflation - There is a cautious expectation for U.S. inflation to decline, with Q3 CPI likely stabilizing, which may accelerate the interest rate cut process. The weakening of the U.S. dollar index could alleviate depreciation pressure on the Chinese yuan [4][5]. - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has suggested increasing the intensity of monetary policy adjustments, but market reactions have been muted, indicating limited room for maneuvering by year-end [12]. Fiscal Policy - China's fiscal policy is increasingly focused on efficiency, with deficit space being utilized to support growth and key expenditures, including consumption and modernization of the industrial system [5]. - The issuance of special bonds is expected to increase, with government financing significantly exceeding last year's levels, which will support domestic demand and positively impact the bond market [5]. Bond Market Dynamics - The bond market is expected to remain bullish in the medium to long term, despite short-term profit-taking pressures due to rising bond fund durations [7][10]. - Quantitative models indicate a significant negative correlation between the yield spreads of 10-year and 3-year bonds with the yield of 1-year bonds, suggesting that monitoring these spreads can provide insights into future yield movements [8][9][16]. Predictions for July 2025 - The predicted central yield for the 10-year government bond in July 2025 is 1.68%, with historical data supporting the model's predictive power [14]. - The market is expected to exhibit stability with narrow fluctuations, and short-term opportunities may arise, particularly in the short-end of the yield curve [17]. Additional Important Insights - The overall economic fundamentals remain under pressure, with fixed asset investment growth at 3.7% from January to May, indicating ongoing economic challenges [11]. - The analysis suggests that while there may be short-term fluctuations, the long-term outlook for the bond market remains positive, driven by structural factors and policy support [10][17].

Core Viewpoint - The 30-year Treasury ETF is experiencing active trading and liquidity, with recent monetary policy announcements from the central bank exceeding market expectations, indicating a potential bullish environment for the bond market in the long term [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of May 9, 2025, the 30-year Treasury ETF has increased by 0.08%, with the latest price at 124.43 yuan [1]. - The ETF's trading volume reached 36.53 billion yuan, with a turnover rate of 22.49%, reflecting active market participation [1]. - The average daily trading volume over the past month was 90.05 billion yuan [1]. - The current size of the 30-year Treasury ETF is 16.236 billion yuan [1]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Impact - The central bank announced a comprehensive monetary policy package, including interest rate cuts and the expansion of structural tools, which has implications for the bond market [1]. - Analysts suggest that while the current market may reflect a bearish sentiment in the short term, the fundamental trading logic indicates a bullish environment for the bond market over a longer time frame [1]. Group 3: Investment Characteristics - The 30-year Treasury ETF closely tracks the China Bond 30-Year Treasury Index, serving as a benchmark for this category of bonds [2]. - The ETF is considered a valuable tool for portfolio management, offering low trading thresholds and high trading efficiency, with a minimum transaction unit of 100 shares, approximately 10,000 yuan [2]. - The ETF benefits from ample liquidity provided by multiple market makers, allowing for immediate transactions and efficient trading [2].