Core Insights - The People's Bank of China conducted a survey in 50 cities, revealing a decline in income and employment sentiment among urban residents in the second quarter of 2025 [1][2] Income and Employment Sentiment - The income perception index stands at 45.0%, down by 1.2 percentage points from the previous quarter, with 10.2% of residents feeling their income has "increased" [1] - The employment perception index is at 28.5%, a decrease of 1.8 percentage points, with 6.4% believing "the situation is good, and employment is easy" [1] Price and Housing Expectations - The price expectation index for the next quarter is 56.4%, down by 0.7 percentage points, with 20.3% expecting prices to "rise" [1] - For housing prices, 8.9% of residents expect "an increase," while 21.7% anticipate a "decrease" [2] Consumer Behavior and Investment Preferences - 23.3% of residents prefer "more consumption," a decrease of 0.5 percentage points, while 63.8% lean towards "more savings," an increase of 1.5 percentage points [2] - The top five preferred investment methods are "bank non-principal guaranteed wealth management," "fund trust products," "stocks," "bonds," and "non-consumption insurance," with respective preferences of 34.8%, 24.7%, 16.3%, 15.3%, and 9.8% [2] Future Spending Plans - The top five items residents plan to increase spending on in the next three months are travel (32.1%), education (31.9%), healthcare (29.3%), social culture and entertainment (24.0%), and large goods (21.1%) [2]

德国8月消费者信心意外回落 储蓄意愿升至一年半新高 金十数据7月24日讯，周四公布的调查显示，在经济持续不确定的背景下，德国家庭支出意愿进一步萎 缩，德国8月Gfk消费者信心指数从7月的-20.3点意外降至-21.5点，市场预期将微升至-19.2点。纽伦堡市 场决策研究所（NIM）消费者分析师罗尔夫·布尔克指出："消费者信心复苏一再推迟，储蓄意愿再度攀 升"，目前已达到近一年半来的最高水平。他补充称："普遍不确定性、对困难局面的预防性需求，尤其 是食品等商品的高价格是主要原因。" ...

Group 1 - The core consumer willingness index for Q2 2025 is 120.2, which is a decrease of 1.2 points from the previous quarter and a decline of 7.1 points compared to the same period last year [5][6] - The contribution rate of final consumption expenditure to economic growth in the first half of the year reached 52%, up from 49.9% in the first three quarters of last year [3][12] - The report indicates a significant drop in consumer expectation willingness, which is attributed to the complex domestic and international economic situation, leading to increased risk aversion and a higher savings willingness among consumers [5][6] Group 2 - The phenomenon of rising savings willingness among consumers is noteworthy, with savings being the primary use of disposable income, followed by education for children, travel, mortgage repayment, and medical expenses [6][7] - The "old-for-new" consumption policy has driven sales of 2.9 trillion yuan, benefiting approximately 400 million consumers, and has contributed to the growth of the retail sector [9][10] - Experts express concerns about the diminishing effectiveness of the "old-for-new" policy in the second half of the year, suggesting the need for further adjustments to consumption promotion policies [10][12] Group 3 - The restaurant industry has shown a decline in revenue growth, with June's year-on-year growth rate dropping to 0.9%, indicating potential challenges for the sector [13] - Recommendations for the restaurant industry include stabilizing growth, employment, and expectations to boost consumer confidence, as well as tax relief for small and medium-sized enterprises [13]

Core Insights - The report indicates that consumers are primarily allocating their surplus funds towards savings, children's education, travel, mortgage repayments, and healthcare, with savings being the top priority [1][4]. - Despite a slight recovery in consumer sentiment in Q1, overall consumption willingness remains weak, prompting discussions on where to focus efforts to stimulate consumption [1][4]. Consumer Spending Behavior - The survey, which included 5,000 consumers across various cities and rural areas, revealed that 48.8% of surplus funds are directed towards savings, followed by 45.5% for children's education, 33.1% for travel, 32.6% for mortgage repayments, and 29.3% for healthcare [4]. - A notable 10.4% of consumers reported having no surplus funds for additional spending [4]. - High-income consumers exhibit a stronger inclination towards saving compared to their lower-income counterparts [4]. Travel and Emotional Spending - There is a robust demand for travel, indicating a trend of consumption structure upgrading, as consumers seek to relieve stress amid uncertainties [4]. - Younger consumers are increasingly willing to spend on experiences that enhance their happiness and emotional well-being [4]. Factors Influencing Consumer Spending - Key factors that could lead to increased consumer spending include income growth (72.3%), stable employment (46.2%), lower prices (43.7%), improved social security (40.6%), and reduced mortgage pressure (32.7%) [5][6]. - Compared to the previous quarter, there has been a slight increase in the percentage of consumers citing favorable macroeconomic conditions and rising stock prices as motivators for spending [6]. Challenges to Consumer Spending - The report attributes the overall lack of consumer spending willingness to cautious expectations, which have led to a sustained high savings rate [7]. - Heavy burdens from children's education and mortgage repayments are also identified as constraints on other spending [7]. Recommendations for Stimulating Consumption - Experts suggest stabilizing consumer expectations through measures such as promoting stock market recovery, curbing the decline in the real estate market, and enhancing macroeconomic stimulus to boost domestic demand [8]. - Consumers have proposed various measures to enhance spending confidence, including improving social security, increasing macroeconomic policy support, and providing consumption vouchers [8]. Impact of External Factors - The report highlights the challenges faced by small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) due to external pressures, such as tariffs imposed by the U.S., which have led to reduced orders and financial difficulties [9]. - SMEs are encouraged to pivot towards domestic markets to mitigate risks associated with external market fluctuations [9].