Workflow
光伏产业规范
icon
Search documents
冠通期货资讯早间报-20250820
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-08-20 01:17
1. Overnight Night Market Trends - International precious metal futures generally closed lower. COMEX gold futures fell 0.57% to $3358.90 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures fell 1.84% to $37.33 per ounce [3] - Geopolitical easing expectations dampened crude oil demand. The main contract of US crude oil fell 1.12% to $62.00 per barrel, and the main contract of Brent crude oil fell 0.95% to $65.97 per barrel [4] - Most London base metals declined. LME aluminum futures fell 0.81% to $2567.50 per ton, LME nickel futures fell 0.60% to $15060.00 per ton, LME copper futures fell 0.50% to $9684.50 per ton, and LME zinc futures fell 0.25% to $2770.00 per ton [4] - As of the 23:00 close, most domestic futures main contracts were in the red. Methanol rose slightly, while soda ash and glass fell more than 4%, and butadiene rubber and coking coal fell more than 3% [4] - As of the 2:20 close, US soybeans fell 0.78%, US corn fell 0.98%, US soybean oil fell 2.93%, US soybean meal rose 2.43%, and US wheat fell 0.90% [5] 2. Important Information 2.1 Macroeconomic Information - A relevant person in charge of the China Futures Association suggested continuously expanding specific varieties and steadily expanding the "variety pool" of opening up [8] - A relevant person in charge of the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange stated that they are steadily promoting the research and development of innovative varieties such as the Baltic Panamax Dry Bulk Freight Index Futures (BPI Index Futures) [8] - In response to a question about China lifting restrictions on rare - earth exports to India, Mao Ning said she was unaware of the situation but was willing to strengthen dialogue and cooperation to maintain global supply - chain stability [8] 2.2 Energy and Chemical Futures - China's soda ash production in July 2025 was 3.099 million tons, a year - on - year decline of 4.5%. The cumulative production from January to July was 23.202 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.4% [10] - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange is actively promoting the overall opening up of polyester - sector varieties as specific varieties [10] 2.3 Metal Futures - A zinc smelter in the northwest plans to continue its maintenance plan from September to October, with the expected impact to be made up from November to December [13] - Tianjin restricted transportation vehicles below National V emission standards starting at midnight last night. Some galvanizing small factories have stopped production due to transportation problems [13] - Indonesia's refined tin exports in July were 3792.22 tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.24% and a month - on - month decrease of 15.07%. The cumulative exports from January to July were 29,900 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 64.4% [13] - Jiangte Motor's subsidiary will resume production soon after equipment maintenance [13] - In July 2025, China's lead concentrate production was 68,500 metal tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.66% and a year - on - year increase of 10.97% [14] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments deployed work to standardize the competition order in the photovoltaic industry [14] 2.4 Black - Series Futures - The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China was 144.424 million tons, an increase of 418,200 tons from the previous Monday [17] - Some independent strip steel rolling enterprises in Tangshan received environmental protection production suspension notices from August 20 to September 3, which may reduce the daily output by about 5,000 tons [17] - Shanxi Meijin Iron and Steel plans to resume production on August 22, increasing the daily hot - metal output by about 3,000 tons [18] 2.5 Agricultural Product Futures - India cancelled the 11% cotton import tariff and the Agricultural Infrastructure and Development Cess from August 19 to September 30 [20] - The soybean crushing profit in Mato Grosso from August 11 to 15 was 392.46 reais per ton [20] - ProFarmer's crop inspection estimated higher corn yields and more soybean pods in Ohio and South Dakota in 2025 compared to 2024 [21] - Brazil's competition management agency plans to investigate the signatories of the "Soybean Moratorium Plan" [23] - The Malaysian Palm Oil Council expects palm oil prices to remain above 4300 ringgit [23] - Zhengshang Institute adjusted the cotton warehouse receipt premium standards [23] - Although the arrival of imported soybeans was large, the soybean crushing volume of oil mills increased for two consecutive weeks, and the coastal soybean inventory decreased slightly last week [23] - A US private exporter reported selling 228,606 tons of soybeans to Mexico for delivery in the 2025/2026 season [24] 3. Financial Market 3.1 Finance - On Tuesday, the A - share market was in a narrow - range consolidation with reduced trading volume. The three major indexes closed down, while the Beizheng 50 hit a new high [26] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell 0.21%, with the Hang Seng Tech Index down 0.67% and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index down 0.3%. Southbound funds had a large - scale net purchase [28] - Brokers are competing for customers, with some offering low commission rates [28] - As of August 18, the margin trading balance exceeded 2.1 trillion yuan, reaching a 10 - year high [28] - Foreign institutions are accelerating their positions in Chinese stocks. As of August 18, QFIIs appeared in the top ten tradable shareholders of over 70 listed companies [29] - As of August 19, social security funds appeared in the top ten tradable shareholders of 89 stocks, with 20 newly added [29] - As of August 19, 432 out of 666 A - share listed companies that disclosed their 2025 semi - annual reports had year - on - year growth in net profit [29] - XPeng Motors' Q2 revenue increased by 125.3% year - on - year, and it expects to deliver 113,000 - 118,000 vehicles in Q3 [31] - Pop Mart's H1 revenue and net profit exceeded the whole of last year [32] - Shein is considering moving its headquarters back to China to pave the way for a Hong Kong IPO [33] - IQIYI has hired banks to arrange its secondary listing in Hong Kong, which may raise $200 - 300 million [34] 3.2 Industry - Six departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology deployed work to standardize the competition order in the photovoltaic industry [35] - Shanghai released a plan to promote the development of "AI + Manufacturing" [35] - A number of major science and technology industrial projects with a total investment of over 40 billion yuan landed in Shanghai Lingang [36] - Guangdong Province introduced 21 measures to promote the development of the commercial space industry [36] - Heilongjiang adjusted the consumer goods trade - in subsidy policy [38] - In July, the newly registered private equity funds had a scale of 107.427 billion yuan [39] 3.3 Overseas - US President Trump said the US would help Ukraine defend but not send ground troops, and Ukraine would not join NATO. The US is planning a tri - partite meeting [40] - The US added 407 product categories to the steel and aluminum tariff list with a 50% tariff [40] - Japan and the US plan to closely consult on implementing a $550 - billion investment in the US [40] - US new home starts in July increased by 5.2% month - on - month to 1.428 million units [40] - S&P affirmed the US "AA +/A - 1+" sovereign credit rating with a stable outlook [41] - A former Japanese foreign minister called on the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates [43] - The Bank of Korea will consider various factors when formulating monetary policy next week [43] - South Korea's July auto export value increased by 8.8% year - on - year [43] 3.4 International Stock Markets - US stocks closed mixed, with the Dow up 0.02%, the S&P 500 down 0.59%, and the Nasdaq down 1.46% [44] - European stocks closed up, driven by peace expectations [44] - Intel's valuation increased by $25 billion due to potential government investment and SoftBank's plan [44] - BHP's 2025 fiscal year attributable profit increased by 14% year - on - year, while adjusted attributable profit decreased by 26% [45] - Home Depot's Q2 adjusted EPS was slightly lower than expected, and it reaffirmed its full - year guidance [47] 3.5 Commodities - The LME's Hong Kong delivery warehouse was officially inaugurated, which may promote RMB settlement in commodity trading [48] - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange is promoting the research and development of innovative varieties and the opening up of polyester - sector varieties [48] - International precious metal futures generally fell, affected by factors such as Fed officials' remarks and geopolitical situation [48] - Crude oil prices fell due to geopolitical easing expectations [48] - Most London base metals declined, as US inflation data affected market expectations for Fed rate cuts [49] 3.6 Bonds - The bond market stabilized. The central bank conducted large - scale reverse repurchase operations, and most yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market declined [51] - Guangdong Province will issue 2.5 billion yuan of offshore RMB local government bonds in Macau in late August [51] - The second batch of science and technology innovation bond ETFs is about to be submitted, with 14 fund companies involved [51] - US Treasury yields fell across the board [51] 3.7 Foreign Exchange - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed down at 7.1820 on Tuesday, and the offshore RMB also declined slightly [52] - The US dollar index rose 0.12%, and most non - US currencies fell [52] 4. Upcoming Economic Data and Events 4.1 Economic Data - Key economic data to be released include Japan's July trade balance, China's August LPR, and Germany's July PPI [55] 4.2 Events - Important events include the New Zealand central bank's interest - rate decision, the European Central Bank President's speech, and the Fed's release of monetary policy meeting minutes [57]