晨会纪要 证券研究报告 2025 年 09 月 26 日 核心结论 分析师 【基金】行业主题基金专题研究（五）-下篇：周期主题基金研究框架及产 品优选 复盘周期历史行情，细分板块分化，有色金属、公用事业、交运估值处于低 位。深度详解七大板块/44 只周期指数的编制规则、行业分布、成分股、风 险收益及相关系数，建议关注跟踪稀土、有色金属、细分化工等指数的基金， 如嘉实中证稀土产业 ETF、国泰中证有色金属 ETF、南方中证申万有色金 属 ETF、鹏华中证细分化工产业主题 ETF、华宝化工 ETF。 【电力设备】TCL 中环（002129.SZ）跟踪报告：硅片价格压制业绩，半导 体业务发展迅速 投资建议：考虑到硅片价格仍在较低水平，我们预计公司 25-27 年归母净利 润-53.09/5.14/24.59 亿元，同比 45.9%/109.7%/378.9%，对应 EPS 分别为 -1.31/0.13/0.61 元，维持"增持"评级。 【北交所】北交所市场点评——20250924：北证 50 指数放量上涨 2.03%， 科技主线引领市场普涨 短期建议关注以下几点：（1）短期关注成交量能否持续放大；（2）半导体板 块 ...

Company Overview - Longi Green Energy focuses on technological innovation, constructing business segments including monocrystalline silicon wafers, battery modules, distributed photovoltaic solutions, ground photovoltaic solutions, and hydrogen equipment, forming products and solutions that support global zero-carbon development with "green electricity" and "green hydrogen" [1] - The company has established production bases in China, Vietnam, and Malaysia, and sales offices in over 160 countries and regions, including the United States, Japan, India, Australia, the UAE, and Thailand [1] Energy Management Practices - Longi Green Energy monitors the efficiency of energy and resource usage, implementing various management documents such as the "Energy Management Manual" and "Energy Data Management Measures," and has established a leadership group for energy management led by the chairman [2] - The company conducts annual carbon verification and updates its greenhouse gas emission inventory, achieving third-party certification for five consecutive years [2] - Key measures include carbon emission accounting, energy management, and the construction of clean energy facilities, with the implementation of a comprehensive carbon emission data online management system [2] Energy Efficiency Initiatives - In 2024, Longi Green Energy will undertake 477 energy-saving technical transformation projects, expected to save approximately 426 million kWh of electricity annually, thereby reducing greenhouse gas emissions [2] - The company actively promotes energy-saving awareness and training among all employees, with specialized training for senior management [2] Zero Carbon Factory Development - In 2024, Longi Green Energy's Jiaxing base became the first zero-carbon factory in the industry, deploying a smart energy management system and advanced automated production equipment [3] - The unit product energy consumption at the Jiaxing base decreased by 24.6% year-on-year, with 26 energy-saving projects expected to save about 13 million kWh of electricity, equivalent to a reduction of 7,600 tons of carbon [3] - The rooftop solar power station at the Jiaxing base has a capacity of 17.03 MW, generating approximately 16 million kWh of electricity, accounting for 10.2% of total electricity consumption, resulting in a carbon reduction of 9,558 tons [3] Water Resource Management - Longi Green Energy focuses on the water footprint of its products, developing management plans to monitor water consumption intensity and exploring the construction of "zero discharge" factories [4] - In 2024, the company achieved a significant reduction in water consumption intensity across its production processes, particularly in the battery segment, with a decrease of 44.5% compared to 2023 [4] Expert Commentary - Longi Green Energy utilized 4.746 billion kWh of renewable electricity in 2024, resulting in a carbon reduction of over 2.54 million tons, with its Jiaxing base recognized as the first "lighthouse + zero carbon" factory in the photovoltaic industry [4]

智通财经APP获悉，国金证券发布研报称，光伏产业链价格和盈利底部明确，"反内卷"推进以来参与主 体持续扩大、产品价格修复效果显著，该行认为光伏行业有望通过顶层支持+市场化淘汰+技术迭代结 合的方式实现供给侧改善，预计后续关于产能、产品质量等相关的政策组合拳将陆续落地，驱动产业链 景气度持续修复。继续推荐低成本硅料、光伏玻璃、高效电池/组件、财务稳健的各环节龙头，及主业 经营扎实、有能力和意愿向电子半导体、机器人、AI算力等方向延伸的辅材、设备、逆变器企业。 国金证券主要观点如下： 2016-2017年供给侧改革复盘 行政力量主导坚定淘汰落后产能，国企推动兼并重组。2016-2017年供给侧改革在化解过剩产能、控制 供给等方面取得了显著效果，过程中国家对落后产能态度坚决，严格执行环保、能耗、质量、安全、技 术要求，依托行政化力量短期内出清了大量落后产能，同时国资企业加速并购重组，推动行业集中度提 升。 日本水泥行业出清复盘：政策引导产能快速收缩，市场化兼并重组提升集中度 光伏供给侧调整思路：能耗、质量或成为本轮政策抓手，关注多晶硅收储进度 综合以上对典型行业供给侧出清的复盘，考虑到光伏行业特点，该行认为光伏行业 ...

Summary of the Solar Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The solar industry is experiencing initial success in combating internal competition, with the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) emphasizing the need to address low-price competition [1][2] - The price of rod silicon has slightly increased to 55,000 RMB, improving the profitability of leading companies, while downstream prices for silicon wafers and battery components are also rising [1][4] Key Points and Arguments - The cancellation of export tax rebates is expected to lead to adjustments in overseas component prices, with discussions on futures contracts aiding price transmission [1][5] - The industry is focusing on capacity governance, production and sales restrictions, and price management, with potential mergers and acquisitions expected to be finalized in October [1][6] - A reduction in production plans has been implemented by silicon material companies, with an expected decrease in total industry capacity from 3.5 million tons to over 2 million tons by 2026, aligning with a demand of over 600 GW [1][8] Price Trends and Market Dynamics - The solar industry chain has seen a slight price increase, with significant price hikes in component procurement bids from major companies like China Resources and Huadian [1][4] - The industry anticipates further price increases in Q4 due to policy support and a gradual recovery in domestic demand driven by the implementation of detailed regulations [1][9] Future Development Directions - The future development of the solar industry will focus on capacity governance, production and sales restrictions, and price management, with legal measures being considered if market-based approaches do not yield expected results [1][6][7] - The industry is expected to see positive changes by the end of the year, similar to supply-side reforms in the steel industry [7] Production and Sales Outlook - Current production is estimated between 125,000 to 130,000 tons, with total production potentially reaching 500,000 tons if this level is maintained from September to December [1][8] - Sales are expected to be constrained, but effective monthly demand anchoring and strict planning will support supply-demand balance [1][8] Investment Opportunities - The solar sector's stock prices are currently low, with a more favorable fundamental outlook compared to the same period last year [1][12] - Investment opportunities are seen in leading silicon material companies and new technology representatives, as well as integrated component leaders [1][12][13]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call on the Photovoltaic Industry Industry Overview - The photovoltaic industry is currently experiencing a significant improvement in cash flow, with operational cash flow turning positive in Q2 2025. However, capital expenditures have slowed down, with only a few companies like Tongwei, Trina, and Jinko showing some capital spending [1][4] - The industry is facing challenges related to low-price sales and overcapacity, prompting regulatory measures from six ministries to control the market and prevent price wars [1][5] Core Insights and Arguments - **Cash Flow and Capital Expenditure**: The operational cash flow of photovoltaic companies improved significantly in Q2, but capital expenditures have decreased. Leading companies had positive net cash inflows in Q1, while second-tier companies continued to weaken [1][4] - **Silicon Material Pricing**: The price of silicon material needs to reach approximately 70,000 yuan/ton for the industry to achieve a profit of around 19 billion yuan, with only about 5 billion yuan remaining after debt repayment [1][7] - **Battery Component Pricing**: To achieve a reasonable return on equity (ROE) of 10%, the price of battery components must increase to 0.94 yuan/watt, while the current price is about 0.74 yuan/watt [1][9] - **Market Dynamics**: The photovoltaic market is currently characterized by a focus on high-power products, which are expected to command a premium in the coming years. High-power components are projected to account for over 50% of the market share by 2026 [2][11] Additional Important Content - **Industry Consolidation**: The industry may need to rely on mergers and acquisitions to stabilize and exit non-competitive companies and capacities. However, the specifics of such plans are still under development [1][4][11] - **Glass and Film Market**: The photovoltaic glass market is currently tight, with prices rising to 13 yuan/square meter. The overall capacity utilization in the glass industry is around 68%, with leading companies performing better than the average [14][17] - **Future Trends**: The photovoltaic industry is expected to continue growing, supported by government policies and the increasing importance of high-power products. The anticipated market dynamics suggest a potential for significant profit margins for companies that can adapt effectively [6][13] Conclusion - The photovoltaic industry is at a critical juncture, with improving cash flows and regulatory measures aimed at stabilizing prices. The focus on high-power components and potential consolidation through mergers and acquisitions could shape the future landscape of the industry.

Core Viewpoint - TCL Technology has made a significant move in the semiconductor display sector by signing a project cooperation agreement to build an 8.6-generation printed OLED display panel production line with a total investment of approximately 29.5 billion yuan [2][4]. Investment and Project Details - The project, referred to as the "t8 project," will involve a total investment of about 29.5 billion yuan, with TCL Huaxing contributing 8.85 billion yuan [2][4]. - The t8 project aims to produce approximately 22,500 glass substrates per month, targeting applications in flat panels, laptops, and monitors [4][5]. - The construction period for the t8 project is planned for 24 months, with an expected operational start in November 2025 [5]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, TCL Technology reported revenue of 85.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.7%, and a net profit of 1.88 billion yuan, up 89.3% [7]. - The semiconductor display business generated revenue of 57.55 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 15.38%, and accounted for 67.26% of the company's total revenue [7][8]. - TCL Huaxing, a core subsidiary, achieved revenue of 50.43 billion yuan, a 14.4% increase, and a net profit of 4.32 billion yuan, up 74.0% [3][7]. Market Position and Competitive Advantage - TCL Technology has strengthened its market position in large-size products, achieving a market share of 24%, an increase of 4 percentage points year-on-year [8]. - The company has also seen significant growth in the sales of LCD products across various segments, including a 71% increase in notebook sales and a 61% increase in automotive displays [8]. - TCL Technology's OLED business has continued to grow, with a year-on-year sales increase of 8.7% and revenue growth of 9.2% [8]. Technological Capabilities - TCL Huaxing has over 9,700 OLED patents, including more than 1,200 related to printed OLED technology, indicating strong technological capabilities [5][6]. - The t8 project will utilize proprietary technology developed by TCL Huaxing, ensuring a competitive edge in the high-generation printed OLED market [5][6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 85.56 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 6.65%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.883 billion yuan, up 89.26% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items reached 1.559 billion yuan, marking a 178.96% increase. Operating cash flow was 27.274 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 115.9% [2][6] - The report highlights a significant potential for dividend increases due to a clear upward trend in dividend yield, as capital expenditures decrease and the profit statement recovers. The stock price has already reflected the temporary drag from the photovoltaic business, indicating substantial room for long-term valuation increases [2][12] Business Segment Summary - In the semiconductor display segment, TCL Huaxing achieved a revenue of 50.43 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.4%, with a net profit of 4.32 billion yuan, up 74.0%. This segment contributed 2.63 billion yuan to the net profit attributable to TCL Technology, a 51% increase year-on-year. The display business showed strong performance in the second quarter, driven by high growth in niche markets such as NB, automotive, and mobile [12] - The semiconductor silicon wafer business reported a revenue of 2.74 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 38.2%. In the renewable photovoltaic segment, TCL Zhonghuan's revenue was 9.87 billion yuan, down 28.0% year-on-year, with crystalline wafer revenue at 5.77 billion yuan, a 7.1% decrease quarter-on-quarter [12] - Other businesses, primarily TV OEM, generated a revenue of 10.39 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16%, maintaining the global leading position in TV OEM volume [12] Financial Projections - The company is projected to have earnings per share (EPS) of 0.29, 0.45, and 0.52 yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 15.23, 9.72, and 8.35 [12][18]

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing severe overcapacity due to rapid expansion outpacing demand growth since the global carbon neutrality push in 2020, leading to significant price declines and financial losses across the supply chain [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Overview - Since 2020, the photovoltaic supply chain has expanded significantly, with nominal capacities exceeding 1200 GW, far surpassing global installation demand, resulting in severe overcapacity [1]. - Prices for silicon materials have plummeted from 300,000 RMB/ton in 2022 to 35,000 RMB/ton by mid-2025, with similar declines in prices for wafers, cells, and modules [1]. - The main industry chain companies reported a cumulative net loss exceeding 10 billion RMB in Q2 2025, marking seven consecutive quarters of losses [1]. Group 2: Policy and Market Response - The industry is undergoing a "de-involution" process, guided by top-down directives and self-regulation, with recent meetings aimed at standardizing competition and reinforcing anti-involution efforts [2]. - Positive market signals have emerged, with prices for polysilicon recovering since July, including an increase to 55 RMB/kg for rod silicon and 49 RMB/kg for granular silicon by September 1 [2]. Group 3: Company Performance - In Q2 2025, the main industry chain continues to face widespread losses, although specialized companies are performing better than integrated ones [3]. - The battery and module sectors show some improvement, but overall profitability remains elusive, with net profit margins across companies exceeding -10% [3]. - Leading companies in various segments possess stronger pricing power and profitability, indicating a potential for recovery as supply and demand dynamics improve [3]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Companies to watch include Tongwei Co., GCL-Poly Energy, Daqo New Energy, and Xinte Energy, particularly in relation to silicon material storage progress and price sustainability [4]. - Integrated companies with low-cost silicon advantages, such as Hongyuan Green Energy, are also recommended for attention [4]. - Other notable companies include Aiko Solar, LONGi Green Energy, and leading firms in auxiliary materials like Foster, Flat Glass, and Xinyi Solar, which are expected to benefit from favorable market conditions [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [7] Core Views - The company reported a significant recovery in gross margin in Q2 2025, alongside the announcement of a stock option incentive plan and employee stock ownership plan, indicating confidence in its future [4][11] - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 23.905 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 36.01%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of -2.58 billion yuan [2][4] - The company plans to repurchase 200 to 400 million yuan worth of shares within the next 12 months for employee stock ownership or incentive plans, representing approximately 0.35% to 0.70% of total share capital [3][4] Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company reported revenue of 13.232 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 38.12%, but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 23.99%, with a net profit of -942 million yuan [2][4] - The company’s battery module shipment volume reached 33.79 GW in H1 2025, with overseas shipments accounting for approximately 45.93% [11] - The gross margin in Q2 2025 improved significantly by 5.76 percentage points to -0.95% due to increased operating rates and price recovery [11] - The company had cash reserves exceeding 26 billion yuan in Q2 2025, with a debt ratio reduced by 0.4 percentage points to 75.9% [11] Incentive Plans - The 2025 stock option incentive plan targets 1,975 individuals, including directors (excluding independent directors), senior management, core technical personnel, and key staff, with the proposed stock options accounting for 4.89% of the total [5] - The employee stock ownership plan for 2025 includes a maximum of 57 participants, with the stock involved representing approximately 1.28% [5]

Group 1: Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 85.6 billion CNY in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 6.7% [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders reached 1.88 billion CNY, a significant increase of 89.3% year-on-year [2] - Operating cash flow amounted to 27.3 billion CNY, showing a remarkable growth of 115.9% [2] Group 2: Semiconductor Display Business - The global retail demand for LCD TVs remained stable, with a focus on large-size panels driven by national subsidy policies [2] - TCL Huaxing reported a revenue of 50.43 billion CNY, up 14.4% year-on-year, and a net profit of 4.32 billion CNY, reflecting a 74.0% increase [2] - The company continues to optimize its business and product structure, enhancing its competitive advantage in the semiconductor display industry [2] Group 3: Semiconductor Wafer Business - The company achieved a revenue of 2.74 billion CNY in the semiconductor wafer segment, marking a year-on-year increase of 38.2% [2] - The company is confident in maintaining growth in the second half of the year, bolstered by improved product quality and stable supply to major domestic integrated circuit manufacturers [2] Group 4: New Energy Photovoltaic Business - The photovoltaic business reported a revenue of 9.87 billion CNY, down 28.0% year-on-year, with crystalline wafer revenue declining by 7.1% [2] - The company aims to enhance its competitive position and navigate through the industry cycle by improving operational conditions [2] Group 5: Future Demand and Market Outlook - Demand for TV panels is expected to rebound in the second half of the year, driven by major shopping events [3] - The long-term demand for large-size LCD panels is projected to grow steadily, supported by increasing average screen sizes [4] Group 6: Production and Operational Updates - The T9 production line is operating at high capacity, with a strong demand for various products [6][7] - The T11 production line, acquired from LGD, is expected to contribute positively to the company's performance as operational efficiencies improve [5] Group 7: Cash Flow and Capital Expenditure - The company reported a net operating cash flow of 27.3 billion CNY, primarily from TCL Huaxing [10] - Future capital expenditures are expected to decline, with a focus on increasing ownership stakes in panel production lines and managing financial costs [11] Group 8: Industry Trends and Pricing - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing a recovery in pricing, with a focus on maintaining healthy price levels across the supply chain [11]