从西部戈壁的集中式光伏电站到城市屋顶的分布式光伏板，光伏发电已成为我国能源结构转型的重要力 量。然而随着早期光伏组件逐步进入服役末期，行业即将迎来大规模退役浪潮。 业内预计，2025年起光伏组件退役量将逐步显现，2030年进入快速增长期，到2040年退役量将突破千万 吨级别，对应的回收市场规模有望达到上千亿元。然而，新华财经记者调查发现，当前我国光伏回收产 业虽已吸引央国企、民营企业资本布局，但仍面临退役量不足、成本高企、技术路线待优化、行业规范 缺失等多重瓶颈，千亿市场的规范化、规模化发展亟待政策、行业、企业多方协同破解。 回收市场亟待释放 国家能源局数据显示，截至今年11月底，我国太阳能发电装机容量11.6亿千瓦，同比增长41.9%，连续 多年位居全球首位。然而光伏组件通常只有20年左右使用寿命，国内早期建设的光伏电站已逐步进入退 役周期。 据中国光伏行业协会预计，2025年我国将开始产生大批量退役光伏组件；2030年后，光伏组件废弃量将 迎来高峰期，约140万吨的废弃量；到2040年，光伏组件累计废弃量将达到253GW，约2000万吨。 中国循环经济协会副会长原庆丹表示，即将迎来光伏设备退役高峰期引发庞 ...

从西部戈壁的集中式光伏电站到城市屋顶的分布式光伏板，光伏发电已成为我国能源结构转型的重要力 量。然而随着早期光伏组件逐步进入服役末期，行业即将迎来大规模退役浪潮。 业内预计，2025年起光伏组件退役量将逐步显现，2030年进入快速增长期，到2040年退役量将突破千万 吨级别，对应的回收市场规模有望达到上千亿元。然而，新华财经记者调查发现，当前我国光伏回收产 业虽已吸引央国企、民营企业资本布局，但仍面临退役量不足、成本高企、技术路线待优化、行业规范 缺失等多重瓶颈，千亿市场的规范化、规模化发展亟待政策、行业、企业多方协同破解。 回收市场亟待释放 国家能源局数据显示，截至今年11月底，我国太阳能发电装机容量11.6亿千瓦，同比增长41.9%，连续 多年位居全球首位。然而光伏组件通常只有20年左右使用寿命，国内早期建设的光伏电站已逐步进入退 役周期。 据中国光伏行业协会预计，2025年我国将开始产生大批量退役光伏组件;2030年后，光伏组件废弃量将 迎来高峰期，约140万吨的废弃量;到2040年，光伏组件累计废弃量将达到253GW，约2000万吨。 中国循环经济协会副会长原庆丹表示，即将迎来光伏设备退役高峰期引发庞 ...

新华财经北京12月29日电（记者 沈寅飞） 从西部戈壁的集中式光伏电站到城市屋顶的分布式光伏板，光伏发电已成为我国能源结构转型的重要力量。然而 随着早期光伏组件逐步进入服役末期，行业即将迎来大规模退役浪潮。 图为新疆某光伏项目 沈寅飞摄 业内预计，2025年起光伏组件退役量将逐步显现，2030年进入快速增长期，到2040年退役量将突破千万吨级别，对应的回收市场规模有望达到上千亿元。然 而，新华财经记者调查发现，当前我国光伏回收产业虽已吸引央国企、民营企业资本布局，但仍面临退役量不足、成本高企、技术路线待优化、行业规范缺 失等多重瓶颈，千亿市场的规范化、规模化发展亟待政策、行业、企业多方协同破解。 回收市场亟待释放 早前发布的《2024年中国光伏回收和循环利用白皮书》指出，在提早退役场景下，2030年国内光伏回收累计市场规模预计达260亿元，2050年将突破4200亿 元。韦伯咨询数据显示，晶体硅光伏组件中玻璃、铝和半导体材料比重可达92%，还含约1%的银等贵金属，到2040年，累计可回收价值将高达1100亿元。 尽管退役潮前景明确，但不同机构对退役量的测算存在较大差异。不过，"光伏组件退役规模的增长前景已成为 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report Supply is increasing while demand is weakening, so the polysilicon market is expected to continue adjusting this week. Although prices are supported by costs and policies, the upside is limited by downstream acceptance, and prices are likely to show a volatile trend. Operational advice is to wait and see or arrange put options [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the main polysilicon contract was 51,800 yuan/ton, down 1,185 yuan; the open interest of the main contract was 136,055 lots, down 3,684 lots; the 11 - 12 spread of polysilicon was -2,905 yuan, up 315 yuan; the polysilicon - industrial silicon spread was 42,960 yuan/ton, down 1,025 yuan [2]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price of polysilicon was 47,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of polysilicon was -5,985 yuan/ton, down 2,195 yuan; the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was 4.94 US dollars/kg, unchanged. The average prices of cauliflower - type, dense - type, and re - feed polysilicon were 30 yuan/kg, 36 yuan/kg, and 34.8 yuan/kg respectively, all unchanged [2]. - **Upstream Situation**: The closing price of the main industrial silicon contract was 8,840 yuan/ton, down 160 yuan; the spot price of industrial silicon was 9,400 yuan/ton, unchanged. The monthly export volume of industrial silicon was 52,919.65 tons, down 12,197.89 tons; the monthly import volume was 2,211.36 tons, up 71.51 tons. The monthly output of industrial silicon was 305,200 tons, up 5,500 tons; the total social inventory was 552,000 tons, up 10,000 tons [2]. - **Industry Situation**: The monthly output of polysilicon was 95,000 tons, down 1,000 tons; the monthly import volume was 1,113 tons, up 320 tons. The weekly spot price of imported polysilicon in China was 6.3 US dollars/kg, up 0.01 US dollars; the monthly average import price was 2,190 US dollars/ton, down 140 US dollars [2]. - **Downstream Situation**: The monthly output of solar cells was 67,386,000 kilowatts, down 3,183,000 kilowatts; the average price of solar cells was 0.82 RMB/W, up 0.01 RMB. The monthly export volume of photovoltaic modules was 88,975,860 pieces, down 14,424,120 pieces; the monthly import volume was 11,095,900 pieces, down 1,002,590 pieces; the monthly average import price was 0.31 US dollars/piece, down 0.01 US dollars. The weekly photovoltaic industry composite price index (SPI) for polysilicon was 27.86, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Industry News - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association predicted that by 2025, the cumulative decommissioned photovoltaic modules in the country will reach about 9GW, and the decommissioned modules in that year will exceed 2.7GW, equivalent to 210,000 - 270,000 tons of waste. The Photovoltaic Recycling Industry Development Cooperation Center of the Photovoltaic Special Committee of the China Green Supply Chain Alliance predicted that by 2030, the cumulative decommissioned scale of photovoltaic modules in the country will reach 1 million tons, and by 2040, it will reach 12 million tons [2]. - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association is soliciting opinions on the "Draft Amendment to the Price Law (Exposure Draft)". In terms of polysilicon, from the supply side, some polysilicon enterprises that previously reduced or suspended production due to losses or equipment maintenance are more motivated to resume production as the market sentiment improves and the policy - end "anti - involution" measures are promoted. The resumption plans of individual enterprises in Yunnan, Xinjiang, and Qinghai are gradually being implemented [2]. 3.3 Key Factors Affecting the Market - **Supply Side**: Some polysilicon enterprises are resuming production, increasing supply [2]. - **Demand Side**: Downstream battery enterprises have different acceptance levels for silicon wafer price increases. Some small and medium - sized battery enterprises have weak procurement willingness due to cost pressure, which limits the further growth of demand in the silicon wafer segment. The overall operating rate of the silicon wafer industry has decreased slightly, weakening the demand support for polysilicon. Some mainstream - specification component prices have been lowered, indicating that the terminal market has low acceptance of high - price components. Component enterprises are more cautious in purchasing upstream polysilicon to control costs, resulting in a bottleneck in the growth of polysilicon demand [2].