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黄金交易提醒:地缘缓和+美元飙升,金价高位“跳水”
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-10 02:56
驱动此轮下跌的直接诱因,是美元指数的持续走强以及中东地区紧张局势的暂时缓和。美元指数连续四 个交易日上涨,创下近两个月新高,使得以美元计价的黄金对于海外买家而言变得更加昂贵。而以色列 与哈马斯达成停火协议,则削弱了黄金作为地缘政治避险资产的光芒,促使部分投机者选择"落袋为 安"。周五(10月10日)亚市早盘,现货黄金震荡微涨,目前交投于3987.60美元/盎司附近,涨幅约 0.34%。 地缘政治缓和引发的获利回吐风暴 汇通财经APP讯——在万众瞩目中,黄金价格本周一度历史性地突破了每盎司4000美元的心理大关,然 而市场的欢呼声尚未平息,一场突如其来的"获利了结潮"便席卷而来。金价在触及4059.05美元的历史 新高后急转直下,周四(10月9日)下跌近2%,最终失守4000美元关口,收于3976美元附近。与此同 时,其"姐妹金属"白银也从51.22美元的历史高位应声回落,收报于49.23美元。这场高位"跳水"行情, 如同一盆冷水,浇醒了沉浸在牛市狂欢中的投资者。 回顾今年,黄金作为非孳息资产,在全球不确定性加剧的背景下被视为对冲工具,吸引了大量资金流 入,但停火协议的达成犹如一盆冷水,浇灭了短期投机热情,导致 ...
FPG财盛国际:黄金突然暴力回调的原因在这!如何交易?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-10 02:21
●FPG最新市场脱水消息: 1. 美元指数周四攀升0.6%,至接近两个月高点的水平,这代表以美元计价的黄金对海外买家来说,变得相对昂贵。 2. 根据美国存托信托公司(DTCC)数据,本周每日看涨美元的结构性交易量都超过看跌头寸,显示市场信心迅速转向支持美元 3. 哈马斯表示,已达成协议以结束加沙战争,确保以色列撤军,并实现人质与囚犯的交换。哈马斯呼吁特朗普及担保国确保以色列落实加沙停火协 议。 ●FPG fortune prime global分析师观点: FPG特约分析师(Felix)观点: | 黄金 (XAUUSD) | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日图 K 线呈现: 偏空 | 日内方向 | | | | 3987 阻力 | | 4000 | 4011 | | 3950 支撑 | | 3941 | 3928 | | 动能 | 动力强(实时变化)全品种量化周期大于3年,参考价值≥67.1% | | | | 欧元兑美元 (EURUSD) | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日图 K 线呈现: 偏空 日内方向 | | | | | 1.15 ...
惠誉警告,全球主权债务前景恶化,新兴市场面临双重挤压
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-06-11 04:07
Group 1: Global Sovereign Debt Outlook - Fitch Ratings has downgraded the global sovereign debt outlook for 2025 from "neutral" to "deteriorating" due to escalating global trade wars and extreme policy uncertainty [1] - The global GDP growth rate is expected to slow from 2.9% in 2024 to 2% in 2025, driven by significant adverse global economic shocks [1] - The report highlights a vicious cycle of uncertainty affecting global trade volumes, supply chains, and investment environments, which may create a more complex market environment than the trade tensions of 2018 [1] Group 2: Oil Market Impact - Fitch predicts that Brent crude oil prices will decline from $79.5 per barrel in 2024 to $65 per barrel in 2025, putting significant pressure on major oil-exporting countries' economies and finances [2] Group 3: Emerging Markets Risks - The reduction of U.S. international aid will expose already vulnerable emerging markets to additional risks [3] - However, the depreciation of the dollar may serve as a "lifeline" for some emerging markets, easing their debt burdens and providing central banks with more room to cut interest rates to stimulate their economies [4] Group 4: Structural Economic Challenges - Global public finances are expected to remain under pressure in 2025, particularly in developed markets, due to rising defense spending, high interest costs, aging populations, weak economic growth, and ongoing social pressures [5] - The median global government debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to rise from 54.1% at the end of 2024 to 54.5% at the end of 2025, indicating an increasing debt burden [5] Group 5: Geopolitical Risks - Geopolitical risks remain high, with ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, intensifying U.S.-China strategic competition, and fluctuating U.S. foreign policy adding complexity to the situation [6] Group 6: Rating Outlook - Despite numerous challenges, Fitch's mid-2025 rating outlook remains relatively balanced, with 13 countries receiving positive outlooks, slightly higher than the 10 countries with negative outlooks [7] - A series of rating downgrades since 2020 has created "headroom" for some countries, enhancing their resilience against deteriorating credit conditions [8] - The effectiveness of policy responses will be crucial in determining the direction of ratings, with timely interventions potentially supporting sovereign credit ratings [9]