Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential for the Chinese yuan (RMB) to become a "quasi-safe haven" currency amid increasing global economic uncertainties and the declining attractiveness of traditional safe-haven assets like the US dollar and US Treasury bonds [2][7]. Group 1: Current Financial Market Context - The complexity of China's financial market is partly due to the RMB not being fully convertible and capital controls still in place, which can deter foreign investment during periods of market volatility [1][15]. - The demand for foreign investment in China is increasing, but trade protectionism has led to a cautious international capital sentiment [1][8]. Group 2: Safe Haven Currency Characteristics - Safe haven currencies typically appreciate during global financial crises due to inflows of risk-averse capital, with historical examples including the Swiss franc and Japanese yen [4][5]. - The formation of a safe haven currency requires political stability, sound economic fundamentals, and a high degree of currency usability [5][6]. Group 3: RMB's Potential as a Quasi-Safe Haven Currency - The RMB has begun to exhibit characteristics of a quasi-safe haven currency, supported by China's substantial foreign exchange reserves and a consistent current account surplus [9][10]. - In 2024, foreign investment in RMB-denominated bonds increased significantly, indicating a growing perception of RMB assets as core international assets [10][12]. Group 4: Challenges to RMB's Safe Haven Status - Despite improvements, the RMB's global allocation remains low compared to traditional safe haven currencies, which limits its international appeal [12][15]. - The RMB's exchange rate stability and interest rate attractiveness are better than those of the yen and Swiss franc, but its global market presence is still underdeveloped [12][14]. Group 5: Policy Recommendations for Enhancing RMB's Safe Haven Status - To enhance the intrinsic value of RMB assets, China should focus on maintaining economic growth, managing potential risks, and ensuring policy transparency [17][18]. - Improving cross-border capital flow management and simplifying investment processes for foreign investors can attract more long-term capital [19][20]. - Expanding the offshore RMB market and increasing the variety of RMB-denominated financial products can enhance liquidity and attractiveness [20][21]. - Developing a robust RMB derivatives market will provide investors with necessary risk management tools [22]. - Promoting the use of RMB-denominated bonds as collateral in global markets can significantly enhance their liquidity and appeal [23]. - Engaging in international financial cooperation to establish the RMB's role in a multi-currency system can further solidify its status as a safe haven asset [24].

Group 1 - The central bank of China has increased its gold reserves for eight consecutive months, reaching 73.9 million ounces by the end of June [1] - This strategy aligns with a global trend where over 90% of surveyed central banks predict continued gold accumulation in the next 12 months [2] - The primary objective of increasing gold reserves is to optimize the structure of foreign exchange reserves, reducing reliance on U.S. dollar assets [2][7] Group 2 - The U.S. Treasury Secretary has expressed a desire to engage China in discussions beyond trade, potentially related to U.S. debt issues [4][6] - The U.S. is facing economic challenges, including inflation and rising debt, which may prompt it to seek support from China, a major holder of U.S. Treasury bonds [6] - China's approach to U.S. debt will be based on market principles and risk management, focusing on asset allocation needs rather than unilateral concessions [6][7]

Group 1 - The gold recycling market shows a diverse pricing system, with the standard price for pure gold at 756 RMB per gram, while prices vary significantly based on purity levels [1] - The international gold price is currently at 3314 USD per ounce, while domestic prices are around 767.3 RMB per gram, indicating a notable difference in pricing strategies among various brands [2] - The Shenzhen Shui Bei gold market offers a range of products with slight price variations based on purity, with prices for different gold types reflecting market dynamics and consumer preferences [3] Group 2 - Central banks globally are increasing their gold reserves as a response to declining confidence in the US dollar and rising geopolitical risks, with significant purchases reported from countries like Poland and Azerbaijan [4] - In the first half of the year, gold has emerged as a favored asset class, with a year-to-date increase exceeding 25%, outperforming other major asset categories [6] - The paper platinum market shows slight price variations among major banks, with quotes for platinum differing marginally, reflecting market competition and pricing strategies [7]

瑞银集团委托进行的一项对央行储备管理者的调查发现，近半数受访者认为美国进行债务重组是一个可 能的情景。 或许正因如此，多元化仍然是储备管理者们所坚持的一项基本信条，他们中几乎所有人都看好黄金， 67%的受访者认为黄金是当前至本十年末表现最佳的资产类别，而2024年的调查中这一比例仅为21%。 没有受访者计划在未来12个月内减少其黄金敞口，略超三分之一的受访者报告在去年增加了持有量。 对美国风险资产来说，一个更积极的消息是，80%的受访者预测美元仍将是世界储备货币，但同时也观 察到，储备多元化的驱动力正变得更强。话虽如此，去年美元持有量的平均份额实际上还增加了一个百 分点，达到56%。 其他可能令投资者警惕的发现包括，三分之二的受访者对美联储的独立性感到担忧，近半数受访者对美 国经济数据的质量以及法治正在减弱的看法感到不安。 尽管地缘政治仍是各国央行的主要关切，但它已被特朗普政府对贸易和国际联盟的政策所产生的潜在影 响所取代，成为首要风险，有74%的受访者提到了这一点。他们可能想到了4月份，当时特朗普在宣布 其"解放日"关税时，断言贸易战的进行和取胜都"简单直接"。令人惊讶的是，考虑到这个受访群体，经 济问题被 ...

新华财经北京7月3日电 调查显示，未来一年，净6%的受访央行计划增加欧元持仓，而人民币则以25% 的净比例位居榜首。此外，加拿大元、英镑和日元也受到部分央行的青睐。这种多元化趋势反映了全球 央行对单一储备货币的依赖正在减少，全球金融体系可能正迈向一个更加多元化的新阶段。 欧洲交易时段，美元交投稳定，在美国关键的非农就业报告公布前，投资者持观望态度。摩根资产管理 表示，这可能会让经济增长担忧"重新成为焦点"，并加大美联储加快降息时间表的压力。不过，他表 示，相较于就业数据而言，通货膨胀离目标水平更远，因此美联储在降息方面应会保持谨慎立场。 市场调查显示，预计美国6月非农就业岗位仅增加11万个，失业率将攀升至4.3%，创下三年半以来的最 高水平。与此同时，薪资增长保持稳定，但经济学家们对未来的就业趋势表达了担忧。市场已开始为潜 在的政策转向做好准备。由于7月4日美国独立日假期，劳工部将提前在周四发布备受瞩目的6月就业报 告。 景顺固定收益分析师强调了当前美国就业市场中出现的裂痕。尽管整体经济环境看似稳定，但近期美国 劳动力市场的数据已显示出多个警示信号，表明美联储应当采取"主动出击"的策略，即提前采取行动以 应对 ...

Group 1 - Gold has emerged as the best-performing asset in the first half of 2025, with a year-to-date increase of over 25%, despite a recent decline to around $3,300 per ounce [1] - In contrast, major U.S. stock indices like the Nasdaq and S&P 500 have shown less than 5% growth, while A-shares have increased by less than 3% [1] - Recent geopolitical tensions, such as the Israel-Iran conflict, have not significantly boosted gold prices, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment towards gold [2] Group 2 - Global gold demand reached 1,206 tons in Q1 2025, a 1% year-on-year increase, marking the highest level for the same period since 2016 [3] - Gold ETF inflows surged by 170% year-on-year, totaling 552 tons, while central bank purchases decreased by 21% to 244 tons [3] - Despite a 7% quarter-on-quarter decline in gold demand, the total monetary value of gold demand nearly matched the historical record of $111 billion due to rising prices [3] Group 3 - Central banks are expected to continue purchasing gold, driven by factors such as the weakening of the dollar's credibility and the need for diversified foreign exchange reserves [4] - In Q1 2025, Poland, Azerbaijan, and China were the top three countries increasing their gold reserves, with purchases of 48.58 tons, 19 tons, and 12.75 tons, respectively [4] - The Chinese central bank is likely to continue increasing its gold reserves in June 2025 due to ongoing geopolitical risks and economic uncertainties [4] Group 4 - Citibank has revised its outlook on gold prices, predicting a decline to below $3,000 in the coming quarters, with a potential range of $2,500 to $2,700 by mid-2026 [6] - Despite an 80% increase in gold prices since 2023, the core logic driving gold prices remains unchanged, supported by policy uncertainties and the long-term credit adjustment of the dollar [6] - Short-term fluctuations in gold prices are influenced by geopolitical risks and trade tensions, with potential for price adjustments to be viewed as buying opportunities [6][7] Group 5 - Long-term analysis suggests that ongoing policy uncertainties and geopolitical risks will sustain market demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [7] - The U.S. fiscal deficit is expected to continue growing, exacerbating dollar credit risks and prompting central banks to strengthen their gold reserves [7] - Inflationary pressures from tariff policies are anticipated to support gold prices, reinforcing its anti-inflation properties [7]

7月1日，站在2025年年中节点上，回顾上半年全球各类资产表现，黄金作为受到各路资金关注的热 门品种，牢牢地坐在了"最佳涨幅"的宝座上。 文/曹萌 需要注意的是，虽然2025年一季度的黄金需求在数量上较2024年四季度环比下降7%，但由于金价 在今年年初的明显上涨，使得今年一季度黄金需求总金额几乎追平了去年四季度1110亿美元的历史 纪录。 通过上述数据，不难发现，作为过去几年黄金最大买家的央行，在2025年一季度的购买力度出现下 降。 不过，根据世界黄金协会2025年6月公布的最新调查问卷显示，全球央行继续保持了对黄金储 备良好的购金意愿。其中，72%的央行预计未来5年内，全球央行将增持黄金储备。相较之下， 73%的央行预计全球央行将减持美元储备，而这一数据高于2024年统计的62%。 南华期货贵金属新能源研究组负责人夏莹莹表示，未来全球央行仍将继续保持购金方角色，尽管金价 的快速上涨可能阶段性抑制央行购金幅度。但央行购金是在美元信誉减弱、全球去美元化、经济贸易 逆全球化以及地缘政局复杂性等趋势的背景下发生的，各国对外汇储备多元化配置的需求上升，以应 对全球货币体系变革、增加金融体系稳定性、促进外汇储备保值 ...

【文/观察者网 张菁娟】在全球贸易分裂和地缘政治动荡下，美元主导地位逐渐减弱，各国央行盯上黄 金、欧元和人民币。 据路透社当地时间24日报道，官方货币与金融机构论坛（OMFIF）当晚将发布报告。根据报告，剔除 计划减持的央行后，三分之一管理着总计5万亿美元资产的央行计划在未来一到两年内增持黄金，这一 比例达到了至少五年来的最高水平。 这项对75家央行的调查于3月至5月进行，首次揭示了美国总统特朗普4月2日"解放日"关税的影响——该 政策引发了市场动荡，并导致避险资产美元和美国国债下跌。 各国央行已在以创纪录速度增持黄金，40%的央行计划在未来十年增加黄金持有量。"在央行黄金购买 量连年创下历史新高之后，储备管理者正加倍押注这种贵金属。" 黄金IC photo 报道称，OMFIF调查的受访者预计，10年后，欧元在全球储备中的份额将达到22%左右。 OMFIF称，去年在受访央行中位列最受欢迎货币的美元，今年已跌至第七位。高达70%的受访央行表示 美国的政治环境阻碍了他们投资美元。 在货币方面，欧元和人民币从央行减持美元、转向多元化配置中获益最大。 OMFIF调查的央行中，16%表示计划在未来12至24个月内增持欧 ...

Group 1: Gold Market Insights - Spot gold prices surpassed $3,370 per ounce, currently at $3,372.26, with a 0.52% increase [1] - Gold ETF (159937) rose by 1.01%, with a turnover rate of 0.57% and a transaction amount of 163 million yuan [1] - Gold has become the second-largest reserve asset globally, with its share in foreign exchange reserves rising to 20%, surpassing the euro [3] - The dollar's market share in global reserves is declining, projected to drop by 2 percentage points in 2024, while the euro's share slightly increases [3] Group 2: Economic and Trade Developments - The first meeting of the China-U.S. economic and trade negotiation mechanism took place in London, achieving a consensus on key economic issues [4] - Both sides aim to enhance cooperation and reduce misunderstandings following the recent discussions between the two countries' leaders [4] Group 3: Inflation and Monetary Policy - The U.S. CPI rose by 2.4% year-on-year and 0.1% month-on-month in May, with core CPI at 2.8% year-on-year, both figures below expectations [5] - Following the CPI data, there is increased speculation on potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with a 75% probability of a cut before September [5] Group 4: Jewelry Market Trends - Gold jewelry prices have exceeded 1,000 yuan per gram, with various brands reporting prices between 1,003 and 1,009 yuan per gram [6] - Gold futures prices have retreated about 2% from the historical high set in April, with forecasts suggesting gold prices could reach $4,000 per ounce by mid-next year [6] - Long-term investment in gold ETFs is recommended due to their low cost and diverse trading options, as well as their role in hedging against economic downturns [6]

Core Viewpoint - The report from the European Central Bank indicates that gold has surpassed the euro to become the second-largest reserve asset globally, following the US dollar, as central banks diversify their foreign exchange reserves to mitigate geopolitical risks [1][2]. Group 1: Central Bank Gold Purchases - In 2024, central banks' net gold purchases reached 1,045 tons, marking the third consecutive year exceeding 1,000 tons, which is double the average annual purchase in the 2010s [2]. - The total gold holdings of central banks have now reached 36,000 tons, with demand remaining at historical highs, accounting for over 20% of global demand [2][4]. - A survey indicated that 29% of participating central banks plan to increase their gold reserves in the next 12 months, the highest level since the survey began in 2018 [4]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Economic Factors - The current gold bull market is driven by concerns over the declining creditworthiness of the US dollar, geopolitical tensions, and fears of economic recession, similar to the conditions during the 1970s and 1980s [3]. - The actual gold price in 2024 has surpassed the peak during the 1979 oil crisis when adjusted for inflation, indicating strong market support for gold [2]. - 69% of surveyed central banks believe that gold's share in global reserves will increase over the next five years, while 62% expect a decrease in the dollar's share [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The demand for gold from central banks is expected to continue in the medium to long term, particularly in light of potential risks associated with US debt and geopolitical uncertainties [5]. - There remains significant room for increasing the share of gold reserves in foreign exchange reserves, with developed economies holding approximately 17.3% and emerging markets around 10.4% [6].