全球信用货币体系稳定性动摇
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再创历史新高,涨幅远超黄金,白银为何也“狂飙”?
Yang Shi Wang· 2025-12-17 01:44
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant rise in silver prices, driven by multiple factors including expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, global supply constraints, and its inclusion in the U.S. critical minerals list, with silver reaching a historic high of $65.163 per ounce, marking a nearly 110% increase this year, outperforming gold and platinum [1][2][6] Group 2 - The surge in demand for precious metals is attributed to rising debt levels in major Western economies and the risk of currency devaluation, with supply shortages becoming a key support for silver prices [2][5] - The structural supply constraints in the silver market are emphasized, with about 70-80% of silver production being a byproduct of mining for other metals, indicating that supply cannot quickly expand even if prices rise [3][5] - The anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are seen as supportive for precious metals, with a recent slight decrease in the probability of a rate cut to 87.4% not diminishing investor interest in silver [6][7] - Analysts suggest that while silver prices may experience high volatility and potential corrections in the short term, the long-term outlook remains bullish due to structural supply-demand imbalances [8]
财经观察丨涨幅远超黄金!白银首次涨破60美元创历史新高,后市怎么走?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-12-10 12:21
Core Viewpoint - Silver futures prices on the New York Mercantile Exchange surpassed $60 per ounce for the first time on the 9th, with a year-to-date increase of 102%, significantly outpacing gold's nearly 60% rise [1][3] Group 1: Price Movements - On the 9th, spot silver rose over 3%, reaching a peak of $60.895 per ounce, marking a historical high [3] - As of the morning of the 10th, spot silver was trading at $61.302 per ounce, continuing to set new historical highs [3] - COMEX silver futures also hit a record high of $61.295 per ounce, marking the first time it crossed the $61 threshold [5] Group 2: Supply and Demand Factors - The surge in silver prices is attributed to multiple factors, including a weaker dollar, changes in U.S. tariff policies, and a shortage in silver supply [1] - The World Silver Association forecasts a continued annual deficit in the silver market through 2025 due to limited production and rising industrial and investment demand [7] - Structural supply constraints are highlighted, with approximately 70-80% of silver production being a byproduct of mining for other metals, limiting the ability to increase supply rapidly [7] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Economic Indicators - Expectations of a rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve have increased, which may further depress the dollar and support higher silver prices [1][11] - Analysts note a "dual-driven" pattern in the recent price increase, linked to the instability of the global credit monetary system and the dynamic changes in the gold-silver price ratio [9][10] - The demand for precious metals has surged due to rising debt levels in major Western economies and the associated risks of currency devaluation [7] Group 4: Future Outlook - UBS has raised its silver price target for 2026 to between $58 and $60 per ounce, with a possibility of reaching $65 [6] - Market analysts suggest that while silver may experience high volatility, the underlying long-term trend remains upward due to structural supply-demand imbalances [12]