Economic Policy & Trade - Nearly 50 prominent economists, including former Federal Reserve chairs, are urging the Supreme Court to overturn most of the Trump administration's global tariffs [1] - Economists argue that the Trump administration's tariff policies are based on a misunderstanding of the global economy [1] - Economists believe trade deficits are common historically and globally, not an "unusual and special" threat to US national security or economy [1] - Trade deficits are essentially the same as foreign investment surpluses and not necessarily harmful [1] - Tariffs are ineffective at addressing overall trade deficits, primarily affecting trade flows rather than the deficit itself, which is determined by macroeconomic factors like national savings and domestic investment [1] - The scale of these generally applicable tariffs could trigger the "major questions principle," requiring clear authorization from Congress, which the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) does not provide [1]

Core Viewpoint - Mattel's third-quarter results fell short of analysts' expectations, primarily due to ongoing global tariffs impacting sales in North America, leading to a 4% drop in shares after hours [1][3]. Financial Performance - For the quarter ended September 30, net income was reported at $278 million, or 88 cents per share, down from $372 million, or $1.09 per share, a year earlier [2]. - Adjusted earnings per share were 89 cents, compared to the expected $1.07 [8]. - Net sales decreased by 6% to $1.74 billion, missing Wall Street's expectations of $1.83 billion [3][8]. Sales Breakdown - North American sales fell by 12%, with the most significant declines in the infant, toddler, and preschool categories [5]. - Global sales for Barbie decreased by 17%, and Fisher-Price sales dropped by 19%, while Hot Wheels sales increased by 8% [5]. Future Guidance - The company provided full-year guidance, projecting net sales growth between 1% and 3% and earnings per share between $1.54 and $1.66 [4]. - CEO Ynon Kreiz noted that orders from U.S. retailers have significantly accelerated since the beginning of the fourth quarter [4]. Strategic Initiatives - Mattel is focusing on expanding its entertainment offerings and leveraging new technology, including a partnership with Hasbro and Netflix to launch products tied to the movie "KPop Demon Hunters" [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - The impact of global tariffs on U.S. inflation and Federal Reserve policy remains unclear, complicating predictions for future monetary policy adjustments [1] Group 1: Economic Outlook - UBS's Sergio Ermotti expresses confidence in continued U.S. economic growth despite uncertainties surrounding inflation and its effects on Federal Reserve policy [1] - There is speculation that the Federal Reserve may lower interest rates during the meeting on September 16-17, with changing investor expectations regarding the extent of policy adjustments [1] Group 2: Tariff Implications - Ermotti highlights that the real impact of tariffs will be felt by consumers, emphasizing the need for clarity on whether tariffs will trigger inflation in the U.S., which is currently uncertain [1] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The global economy is exhibiting a bifurcation, driven by technology and AI on one side, and more traditional sectors on the other, with noticeable effects in regions like Hong Kong's thriving IPO market [1] - Overall, Ermotti describes the current market situation as positive, but notes the complexity of various influencing factors and the intricate geopolitical environment [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of a U.S. appellate court ruling that deemed most of the global tariffs imposed by the Trump administration illegal, and Trump's intention to appeal to the Supreme Court to overturn this decision [1][4][10]. Group 1: Legal and Economic Implications - Trump plans to appeal the appellate court's ruling to the Supreme Court, emphasizing the urgency of a quick resolution due to the tariffs' impact on the nation's financial structure [3][4]. - The appellate court's decision indicates that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) does not grant the President the authority to impose tariffs, which could significantly affect U.S. trade policy [4][10]. - If the Supreme Court upholds the lower court's ruling, it would severely limit Trump's ability to impose tariffs, undermining his economic strategy to compel companies to invest in the U.S. [10][11]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the announcement of the appellate court's ruling, U.S. stock markets experienced declines, with the S&P 500 down approximately 1% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping over 380 points [1][4]. - Trump attributes the market downturn to uncertainty surrounding the tariff situation, suggesting that a favorable ruling could lead to a significant market rally [1][4]. Group 3: Alternative Legal Strategies - The U.S. Treasury Secretary expressed confidence that the Supreme Court would support Trump's use of IEEPA for imposing tariffs but is also preparing alternative legal strategies in case of a loss [9][10]. - If the Supreme Court rules against Trump, the administration may resort to other legal frameworks, such as the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act, to impose tariffs, albeit with less efficiency [9][10]. Group 4: Potential Consequences of Ruling - Legal experts warn that a Supreme Court ruling against the tariffs could lead to significant economic repercussions, including potential financial collapse due to the loss of tariff revenue, which totaled $159 billion as of July [10][11]. - The ruling could also set a precedent affecting the balance of power between the executive branch and Congress regarding trade policy [10][11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas macro: The US economic fundamentals remain stable in the short - term, but there are employment and inflation pressures in the medium - term. High - interest rates impact consumption, there is a differentiation in CPI and PPI expectations, and inflation may rebound in autumn, affecting the Fed's decision - making. In the short - term, market risk appetite is expected to remain strong [6]. - Domestic macro: In July, the growth rate of economic data slowed down, with consumption, investment, and credit demand weakening. Exports were the main support for the domestic economy. August exports may remain resilient, but there may be pressure starting from September [6]. - Asset views: In late August, China enters the verification period of the seasonal peak of fixed - asset investment and consumption, and the global central bank summit is a game window for Fed policy. The rise of risk assets is driven by tariff and geopolitical risk mitigation and loose liquidity expectations. As economic growth slows, short - term market volatility may increase [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Essentials - Overseas: The US economic fundamentals are stable in the short - term, with pressure in the medium - term. High - interest rates affect consumption, CPI and PPI expectations are different, and inflation may rebound in autumn [6]. - Domestic: July economic data growth slowed, with exports as the main support. August exports may be resilient, but September may face pressure [6]. - Assets: Late August is a key period for investment, consumption, and Fed policy. Risk assets are driven by positive factors, and short - term market volatility may increase as the economy slows [6]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Financial - Stock index futures: Growth opportunities are spreading, and the short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend [7]. - Stock index options: An offensive strategy is recommended, with a short - term judgment of a volatile upward trend [7]. - Treasury bond futures: The bond market is still under pressure, with a short - term judgment of a volatile trend [7]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - Gold/Silver: Precious metals are expected to strengthen with volatility, with a short - term judgment of a volatile upward trend [7]. 3.2.3 Shipping - Container shipping to Europe: Attention is paid to the game between peak - season expectations and price - increase implementation, with a short - term judgment of a volatile trend [7]. 3.2.4 Black Building Materials - Steel products: Inventory is accumulating, and prices are falling from high levels, with a short - term judgment of a volatile trend [7]. - Iron ore: Fundamentals are healthy, and prices are slightly回调 after sentiment cools, with a short - term judgment of a volatile trend [7]. - Other products (such as coke, coking coal, etc.): All are expected to show a volatile trend in the short - term [7]. 3.2.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - Copper, aluminum, etc.: Most metals are expected to show a volatile trend in the short - term, with factors such as supply, demand, and policies affecting prices [7]. - Industrial silicon: It is expected to show a volatile upward trend in the short - term [7]. - Lithium carbonate: It is expected to show a wide - range volatile trend in the short - term [7]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: Supply pressure exists, and the short - term judgment is a volatile downward trend [9]. - Other chemicals: Most are expected to show a volatile trend in the short - term, affected by factors such as supply, demand, and cost [9]. 3.2.7 Agriculture - Oils and fats: Palm oil is leading the rise, with a short - term judgment of a volatile upward trend [9]. - Other agricultural products: Most are expected to show a volatile trend in the short - term, affected by factors such as weather, supply, and demand [9].

Group 1 - The core issue is the internal power struggle within the White House, which has led to a loss of confidence in U.S. economic policies, causing market turmoil and capital flight [1][3][15] - The trade policies, particularly the tariffs, are strategically designed to isolate key global competitors while attempting to differentiate between allies and adversaries [5][7] - The U.S. reliance on China for rare earth elements poses a significant risk to its high-tech industries, highlighting the need for a domestic supply chain [7][15] Group 2 - President Trump's public attacks on the Federal Reserve and its Chairman Jerome Powell indicate a desire to undermine the independence of monetary policy [9][11] - The internal dissent within the Federal Reserve, particularly from Trump-appointed members, reflects a coordinated effort to pressure the Fed into lowering interest rates [11][13] - The conflict between Trump's political agenda and the broader national strategic interests has resulted in a detrimental impact on market confidence and economic stability [15]

Core Insights - Trump stated that global tariffs are expected to be around 15-20% [1] Summary by Categories - **Global Tariffs** - The anticipated range for global tariffs is projected to be between 15% and 20% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock indices are experiencing declines, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq down over 0.2% amid a significant legal challenge to tariffs imposed by former President Trump [1] Group 1: Legal Challenge - Two family-owned toy manufacturers have requested the U.S. Supreme Court to consider overturning the largest tariffs implemented by President Trump, marking a high-risk legal battle that could impact the global economy [1] - The lawsuit aims to expedite the case's review process, with hopes for a final ruling from the Supreme Court by the end of the year [1] - A federal appeals court indicated that these tariffs may remain in effect until the court hears arguments on July 31 [1] Group 2: Court Filings - The two companies submitted their documents to the Supreme Court on Tuesday, although the filings have not yet been published on the court's website [1]

Group 1 - Airbus predicts that the global commercial aircraft fleet will double in the next 20 years, reaching nearly 50,000 aircraft, driven by rapid growth in markets like India [1] - By 2044, the global active fleet is expected to increase by 24,480 aircraft, with significant contributions from single-aisle aircraft like the Airbus A320 and Boeing 737 [1] - Airbus anticipates that the Indian domestic aviation network will become the fastest-growing aviation market, while China will become the largest market in terms of capacity [1] Group 2 - Airbus CEO Christian Scherer noted that there has not been a fundamental shift in customer demand outside the U.S. domestic market, with continued interest in their products [2] - Despite easing supply chain disruptions from the pandemic, some components remain in short supply, affecting aircraft deliveries, particularly for the A320neo and A350 models [2] - India has emerged as the world's third-largest domestic aviation market, with a growing affluent population driving future aircraft demand, as evidenced by Indian airlines ordering 570 aircraft from Airbus and Boeing since 2023 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. International Trade Court (CIT) ruled that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) does not grant the President unlimited authority to impose tariffs, leading to the annulment of related tariff measures [1][7]. Group 1: Court Ruling Details - The CIT combined two cases, one initiated by the Liberty Justice Center on behalf of five small businesses challenging the "reciprocal tariffs" and another by the Oregon Attorney General representing twelve states against global tariffs, retaliatory tariffs, and fentanyl tariffs [3]. - The court confirmed that the IEEPA does not explicitly authorize the President to impose unlimited tariffs, which have significant economic and political implications [4][5]. - The ruling stated that the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration exceeded the authority granted by the IEEPA and violated constitutional principles [6][7]. Group 2: Implications for Trade Policy - The ruling could represent a significant policy shift, particularly benefiting small and medium-sized enterprises that struggle to absorb the costs of tariffs [6]. - The decision emphasizes that trade decisions should not be made unilaterally by the President without Congressional authorization, reaffirming the importance of legislative oversight [4][5]. - The CIT's ruling applies nationwide, affecting all importers, but does not address tariffs authorized under other laws, such as those related to steel and aluminum [7].