1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas macro: The US economic fundamentals remain stable in the short - term, but there are employment and inflation pressures in the medium - term. High - interest rates impact consumption, there is a differentiation in CPI and PPI expectations, and inflation may rebound in autumn, affecting the Fed's decision - making. In the short - term, market risk appetite is expected to remain strong [6]. - Domestic macro: In July, the growth rate of economic data slowed down, with consumption, investment, and credit demand weakening. Exports were the main support for the domestic economy. August exports may remain resilient, but there may be pressure starting from September [6]. - Asset views: In late August, China enters the verification period of the seasonal peak of fixed - asset investment and consumption, and the global central bank summit is a game window for Fed policy. The rise of risk assets is driven by tariff and geopolitical risk mitigation and loose liquidity expectations. As economic growth slows, short - term market volatility may increase [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Essentials - Overseas: The US economic fundamentals are stable in the short - term, with pressure in the medium - term. High - interest rates affect consumption, CPI and PPI expectations are different, and inflation may rebound in autumn [6]. - Domestic: July economic data growth slowed, with exports as the main support. August exports may be resilient, but September may face pressure [6]. - Assets: Late August is a key period for investment, consumption, and Fed policy. Risk assets are driven by positive factors, and short - term market volatility may increase as the economy slows [6]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Financial - Stock index futures: Growth opportunities are spreading, and the short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend [7]. - Stock index options: An offensive strategy is recommended, with a short - term judgment of a volatile upward trend [7]. - Treasury bond futures: The bond market is still under pressure, with a short - term judgment of a volatile trend [7]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - Gold/Silver: Precious metals are expected to strengthen with volatility, with a short - term judgment of a volatile upward trend [7]. 3.2.3 Shipping - Container shipping to Europe: Attention is paid to the game between peak - season expectations and price - increase implementation, with a short - term judgment of a volatile trend [7]. 3.2.4 Black Building Materials - Steel products: Inventory is accumulating, and prices are falling from high levels, with a short - term judgment of a volatile trend [7]. - Iron ore: Fundamentals are healthy, and prices are slightly回调 after sentiment cools, with a short - term judgment of a volatile trend [7]. - Other products (such as coke, coking coal, etc.): All are expected to show a volatile trend in the short - term [7]. 3.2.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - Copper, aluminum, etc.: Most metals are expected to show a volatile trend in the short - term, with factors such as supply, demand, and policies affecting prices [7]. - Industrial silicon: It is expected to show a volatile upward trend in the short - term [7]. - Lithium carbonate: It is expected to show a wide - range volatile trend in the short - term [7]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: Supply pressure exists, and the short - term judgment is a volatile downward trend [9]. - Other chemicals: Most are expected to show a volatile trend in the short - term, affected by factors such as supply, demand, and cost [9]. 3.2.7 Agriculture - Oils and fats: Palm oil is leading the rise, with a short - term judgment of a volatile upward trend [9]. - Other agricultural products: Most are expected to show a volatile trend in the short - term, affected by factors such as weather, supply, and demand [9].

Group 1 - The core issue is the internal power struggle within the White House, which has led to a loss of confidence in U.S. economic policies, causing market turmoil and capital flight [1][3][15] - The trade policies, particularly the tariffs, are strategically designed to isolate key global competitors while attempting to differentiate between allies and adversaries [5][7] - The U.S. reliance on China for rare earth elements poses a significant risk to its high-tech industries, highlighting the need for a domestic supply chain [7][15] Group 2 - President Trump's public attacks on the Federal Reserve and its Chairman Jerome Powell indicate a desire to undermine the independence of monetary policy [9][11] - The internal dissent within the Federal Reserve, particularly from Trump-appointed members, reflects a coordinated effort to pressure the Fed into lowering interest rates [11][13] - The conflict between Trump's political agenda and the broader national strategic interests has resulted in a detrimental impact on market confidence and economic stability [15]

联邦上诉法院在另一起案件中表示，这些关税可能会持续有效，直至该法院小组于7月31日听取辩论。 这两家公司表示，他们已于周二提交了最高法院文件。该文件目前尚未在法院网站上发布。 美国三大股指目前悉数下跌，标普和纳指跌超0.2%。两家家族企业请求美国最高法院考虑推翻总统特 朗普实施的最大规模关税，这是一场事关全球经济、风险极高的诉讼首次提交最高法院审理。这项请求 源于两家益智玩具制造商在华盛顿提起的诉讼，旨在加快案件审理进程，并有望在年底前获得最高法院 的最终裁决。 ...

Group 1 - Airbus predicts that the global commercial aircraft fleet will double in the next 20 years, reaching nearly 50,000 aircraft, driven by rapid growth in markets like India [1] - By 2044, the global active fleet is expected to increase by 24,480 aircraft, with significant contributions from single-aisle aircraft like the Airbus A320 and Boeing 737 [1] - Airbus anticipates that the Indian domestic aviation network will become the fastest-growing aviation market, while China will become the largest market in terms of capacity [1] Group 2 - Airbus CEO Christian Scherer noted that there has not been a fundamental shift in customer demand outside the U.S. domestic market, with continued interest in their products [2] - Despite easing supply chain disruptions from the pandemic, some components remain in short supply, affecting aircraft deliveries, particularly for the A320neo and A350 models [2] - India has emerged as the world's third-largest domestic aviation market, with a growing affluent population driving future aircraft demand, as evidenced by Indian airlines ordering 570 aircraft from Airbus and Boeing since 2023 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. International Trade Court (CIT) ruled that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) does not grant the President unlimited authority to impose tariffs, leading to the annulment of related tariff measures [1][7]. Group 1: Court Ruling Details - The CIT combined two cases, one initiated by the Liberty Justice Center on behalf of five small businesses challenging the "reciprocal tariffs" and another by the Oregon Attorney General representing twelve states against global tariffs, retaliatory tariffs, and fentanyl tariffs [3]. - The court confirmed that the IEEPA does not explicitly authorize the President to impose unlimited tariffs, which have significant economic and political implications [4][5]. - The ruling stated that the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration exceeded the authority granted by the IEEPA and violated constitutional principles [6][7]. Group 2: Implications for Trade Policy - The ruling could represent a significant policy shift, particularly benefiting small and medium-sized enterprises that struggle to absorb the costs of tariffs [6]. - The decision emphasizes that trade decisions should not be made unilaterally by the President without Congressional authorization, reaffirming the importance of legislative oversight [4][5]. - The CIT's ruling applies nationwide, affecting all importers, but does not address tariffs authorized under other laws, such as those related to steel and aluminum [7].

现货黄金跌超1%，美元指数涨超0.5%，此前美国贸易法庭针对特朗普的全球关税作出禁制的裁定。 ...