Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the recent volatility in gold and silver prices, driven by geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties, particularly in the U.S. [2][3][5] - Gold prices experienced a dramatic reversal on October 9, with international gold prices dropping below $4000, while silver prices initially surged above $50 before retreating [2][3][6] - The recent surge in gold prices, which have increased over 52% this year, is attributed to factors such as the U.S. government shutdown and rising global demand for safe-haven assets [5][6] Group 2 - Analysts suggest that the ongoing geopolitical tensions and the U.S. government's fiscal challenges are likely to sustain the bullish outlook for gold in the long term [4][5] - The demand for silver is also expected to rise, driven by its industrial applications, particularly in electronics and renewable energy sectors [6][8] - The volatility in silver prices is noted to be more pronounced than in gold due to its smaller market size, making it more susceptible to rapid price changes [7][8] Group 3 - The Cboe volatility indices for both gold and silver have shown significant increases, indicating potential for price adjustments in the near future [4][8] - UBS and Fidelity have expressed a positive long-term outlook for gold, predicting prices could reach $4200 per ounce in the coming months [5][9] - The relationship between gold and silver prices is highlighted, with gold's performance often influencing silver's market dynamics [9]

机构HashKey Group的首席分析师丁（Jeffrey Ding）告诉第一财经，黄金最近一波上涨背后的一个因素 是，在美国两党就预算案的谈判再次破裂后，联邦政府自10月1日起进入技术性停摆。同时，9月非农就 业数据因政府关门而延迟发布，加剧了市场对美国经济数据盲区的焦虑。"资本市场随即给出直观反 应：黄金与比特币双双突破前高，全球资金避险情绪高涨。此外，中东局势持续紧张，OPEC近期宣布 增产，但增幅低于预期，加之全球需求放缓、北美原油供应增加，原油价格反而短期内走弱。"他解释 道，"美元因此失去了其传统的石油支撑锚，使黄金作为无主权硬通货的相对吸引力迅速上升。黄金的 强势更多源于全球央行资产配置的再锚定，尤其是在美元财政可持续性被质疑的背景下，其战略储备地 位得到系统性提升。" 但短期来看，他坦言，10月7日纽约联储公布的一年期与五年期通胀预期双双高于市场预期，打压了资 金风险偏好，令美股和比特币当日双双回落。这表明市场对于通胀反复与政策收紧预期重启的担忧仍未 解除。 "接下来，美国是否能够尽快结束联邦政府的停摆危机、关键经济数据能否及时发布，以及原油价格能 否有效回升，将成为市场方向选择的关键变量。 ...