本文字数：3316，阅读时长大约5分钟 作者 |第一财经 后歆桐 2025.10.10 价格屡创新高的金银9日经历戏剧性的盘中逆转。 刚刚过去的9日，以色列哈马斯之间的和谈进展令美元指数上涨0.72%，突破99高位，创两个多月新 高。贵金属则随即转跌，国际金价跌破4000美元，跌幅达1.7%；现货白银历史性地自1980年来首次涨 破50美元关口，上探51美元，但随后一度回落超5.6%。但期金和现货黄金盘中均曾扭转涨跌幅，反映 市场依然看好贵金属长期结构性、周期性牛市前景。 10日午间，COMEX黄金期货报3987.60美元，COMEX白银期货报47.40美元，均已较9日低位反弹。 黄金上涨趋势不改 9日美股盘前，金价一度连续第四日创盘中最高纪录，COMEX 12月黄金期货接近4078美元，日内涨近 0.2%，现货黄金逼近4058美元，日内涨近0.4%，但午盘刷新日低，期金跌至3958美元下方，日内跌近 2.8%，现货黄金跌至39451美元，日内跌2.4%。 机构HashKey Group的首席分析师丁（Jeffrey Ding）告诉第一财经，黄金最近一波上涨背后的一个因素 是，在美国两党就预算案的谈判再次破裂 ...

新华财经悉尼10月3日电（记者李晓渝）金融分析公司标普全球（S&P Global）公布的最新数据报告显 示，2025年9月标普全球澳大利亚综合PMI（S&P Global Australia Composite PMI）从前一个月的55.5点 回落至52.4点，为今年6月以后的最低水平。 这表明澳大利亚私营经济的整体产出连续第12个月升高，但增幅较前两个月有所下降。 就服务业而言，服务业商业活动指标从8月的55.8点升至52.4点，达到今年6月以后最低水平。这也让此 项指标连续20个月的时间里都高于50点枯荣线，说明澳大利亚服务业在这段时间里持续扩张。 标普全球经济学家潘婧怡表示，数据显示，在新增业务再次强劲增长的支撑下，澳大利亚服务业在9月 继续扩张。在新增销售和商业活动持续增长的刺激下，服务业企业积极增加用工。尽管如此，澳服务业 商业活动指标3个月来首次下降，这是因为在经历了2个月的强劲扩张之后，服务业新增业务的增长速度 有所放缓。出于对市场状况的担忧，服务业企业对未来的商业活动乐观程度有所下降。价格方面，服务 业产品销售价格涨幅下降是一个可喜的进展，对市场需求形成了支撑，并为澳大利亚央行在年底前进一 步 ...

报告显示，澳大利亚私营经济的商业活动增长在9月有所放缓，背后原因是出口订单重新减少导致整体 的新增订单增长放缓，企业乐观情绪也降至一年来的最低水平。但澳私营企业继续稳步增加用工，以应 对现有工作量并清理现存订单。 标普全球速览澳大利亚综合PMI是标普全球速览制造业PMI产出指标和速览服务业PMI商业活动指标的 GDP加权平均值，高于50点枯荣线说明澳大利亚私营经济正在扩张，低于50点则显示该国私营经济萎 缩。 报告还指出，9月澳大利亚制造业PMI指数从8月的53点下降至51.6点，9月澳大利亚制造业PMI产出指标 从53.8点下降到52.9点。 新华财经悉尼9月23日电（记者李晓渝）金融分析公司标普全球（S&P Global）公布的最新数据报告显 示，2025年9月标普全球速览澳大利亚综合采购经理指数（S&P Global Flash Australia PMI Composite Output Index）从8月的55.5点下降至52.1点。 （文章来源：新华财经） 价格方面，9月澳大利亚私营企业的平均投入品成本价格继续以高于平均水平的速度增长，而产品销售 价格的涨幅则略有减小。 标普全球经济学家潘婧怡表示 ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices stabilized around $3,650 following a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which hinted at further easing in the coming months, but did not meet the dovish expectations of investors [1] Group 1: Market Sentiment - Market sentiment remains bullish but has noticeably cooled, as the Federal Reserve did not provide the dovish guidance needed to push gold prices higher [1] - The prediction of only one rate cut in 2026 exceeded market pricing, leading to increased yields and a stronger dollar [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - A reversal of the current trend is necessary to support gold prices in breaking through the $3,700 level [1] - Weak U.S. economic data could act as a catalyst for this reversal [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the increasing probability of an economic recession in the U.S., currently estimated at 48% according to Moody's Analytics, with historical data suggesting that once the probability reaches this level, a recession is likely to follow [2][5]. - Moody's analysis indicates that the housing market data is a critical component of their economic indicators, with building permit volumes identified as a key predictor of economic downturns. Recent trends show a decline in building permits, which have fallen to their lowest level since the pandemic lockdowns [5][10]. - The article notes that in July, the seasonally adjusted annualized total of residential building permits was reported at 1.35 million units, reflecting a month-over-month decrease of 2.8% and a year-over-year decrease of 5.7% [5][10]. Group 2 - Despite a decrease in the 30-year fixed mortgage rate from nearly 7% to approximately 6.3%, it remains uncertain whether this will sufficiently boost builder confidence or how much further rates may decline [8]. - The Federal Reserve has expressed concerns regarding the housing market, as indicated in the minutes from their July meeting, where they noted worries about weak housing demand, rising supply, and falling home prices [9]. - Residential investment, as a strong predictor of economic recession, has also shown negative trends, with a reported decline of 4.7% in the second quarter, worsening from a 1.3% drop in the first quarter [10].

Core Viewpoint - The global economic uncertainty has led investors to seek safe-haven assets, resulting in a surge in gold prices, which reached a new high of over $3500 per ounce on September 2, 2023 [1][4]. Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - Gold prices hit $3501.59 per ounce during Asian trading, surpassing the previous record of $3500.10 set in April [1]. - The rise in gold prices is attributed to a weak dollar and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, as inflation in the U.S. accelerates [2][5]. - Concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve have intensified, prompting investors to sell dollars and buy gold as a hedge [2][4]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Influences - The price of silver also reached a 14-year high at $40.76 per ounce, driven by similar market sentiments [4]. - The pressure from former President Trump on the Federal Reserve and the recent court rulings regarding tariffs have contributed to the volatility in the market [2][4]. - Analysts note that geopolitical uncertainties, inflation worries, and concerns about the health of the U.S. economy have collectively driven gold prices up by 33% this year [6][7]. Group 3: Broader Economic Context - The expectation of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve is reinforced by the recent personal consumption expenditures report, which aligns with analyst forecasts [5]. - Central banks around the world are increasing their gold reserves as a strategy to diversify away from the dollar, further supporting the rise in gold prices [6].

Group 1 - The S&P Global Australia Composite PMI rose to 55.5 in August 2025, marking the highest level since April 2022, indicating continuous growth in the private sector for 11 consecutive months [1][2] - The overall new business in the Australian private sector grew at the fastest pace in 40 months, driven by the recovery of new export business [2] - The services sector's business activity index increased from 54.1 in July to 55.8 in August, also reaching the highest level since April 2022, indicating sustained expansion in the services sector [2] Group 2 - Private enterprises in Australia accelerated hiring to address backlog orders, reflecting improved business confidence compared to July [2] - Despite strong demand, the growth rates of cost prices and product prices in the services sector have moderated [2] - The data suggests a strong and broad-based growth in the Australian economy in August, increasing the likelihood of positive GDP growth in the third quarter [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights concerns regarding the credibility of the Bank of England's recent interest rate cut amidst persistent inflation pressures, particularly in the services sector and wage growth [1] - Analyst Lale Akoner suggests that the current economic slowdown and weak labor market do not justify the rapid rate cut, advocating for a more gradual approach to monetary policy [1] - There is significant uncertainty regarding whether the Bank of England will continue to lower rates in November, with potential risks of exacerbating inflation if the central bank is perceived as softening its stance on inflation control [1] Group 2 - Key support levels for GBP/USD include the dense trading area at 1.2938 and the April low along with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level slightly above 1.2700 [2] - The GBP/USD is currently testing resistance near the June low and the 50% Fibonacci retracement level around 1.3370, with critical resistance zones formed by the 20-day EMA (1.3392) and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level (1.3420) [2]

Core Insights - The S&P Global Australia Composite PMI rose from 51.6 in June to 53.8 in July 2025, marking the highest level since April 2022, indicating a continuous increase in the private sector output for the tenth consecutive month [1][2] Economic Performance - The acceleration in Australia's private sector output in July was driven by increased business activity in the services sector and a recovery in manufacturing output [2] - The services sector business activity index increased from 51.8 in June to 54.1 in July, indicating sustained expansion above the neutral 50-point mark for the past 18 months [2] - The manufacturing PMI rose to 51.3 in July from 50.6 in June, remaining above the 50-point threshold for the seventh consecutive month, with overall new orders in manufacturing recovering despite a decline in new export orders [2] Employment and Pricing - Private enterprises accelerated hiring in July to address backlog orders, while facing ongoing cost pressures, leading to the largest price increase in nearly two years due to strong demand [2] - Business confidence in the manufacturing sector reached its highest level in over three years, reflecting optimism despite challenges [2] Future Outlook - While there are positive growth signs in the services sector, future activity indicators suggest a slight weakening in business optimism for the coming months [3] - The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to implement further interest rate cuts, but inflationary pressures in the services sector have intensified, warranting close monitoring of future price trends [3]

Core Viewpoint - The latest data from S&P Global indicates that Australia's private sector is experiencing accelerated growth in July 2025, driven by a recovery in manufacturing output and increased activity in the services sector [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The S&P Global Flash Australia PMI Composite Output Index rose from 51.6 in June to 53.6 in July, indicating expansion in the private sector [1]. - The manufacturing PMI output index increased from 50.6 in June to 51.6 in July, while the services PMI activity index rose from 51.8 to 53.8 [3]. - New orders in the private sector saw the largest increase in over three years, particularly in manufacturing, which experienced its highest growth in two and a half years [2]. Group 2: Employment and Business Sentiment - Private enterprises increased hiring in response to the growth in new orders, although business optimism has weakened, reaching an eight-month low [2]. - Despite the increase in new orders, manufacturing employment growth has slowed, and procurement activities have decreased, indicating a cautious outlook among manufacturers [2]. Group 3: Inflation and Monetary Policy - Price pressures faced by private enterprises intensified in July, suggesting a potential rise in inflation in the coming months, which adds uncertainty to the monetary policy outlook of the Reserve Bank of Australia [2].