这表明澳大利亚私营经济的整体产出连续第十五个月升高，但12月增幅较11月有所下滑，且降至七个月 以来最低水平。 新华财经悉尼1月6日电（记者李晓渝）金融分析公司标普全球（S&P Global）公布的最新数据报告显 示，2025年12月标普全球澳大利亚综合PMI（S&P Global Australia Composite PMI）从前一个月的52.6点 下降至51点。 标普全球澳大利亚综合PMI是标普全球澳大利亚服务业采购经理指数商业活动指标（S&P Global Australia Services PMI Business Activity Index）与标普全球澳大利亚制造业采购经理指数产出指标 （S&P Global Australia Manufacturing Output Index）的加权平均值，与标普全球澳大利亚制造业采购经 理指数（S&P Global Australia Manufacturing PMI）不直接相关。 2025年12月，澳大利亚制造业产出与服务业商业活动增长速度均放缓，但新增业务增速却有所上升，原 因是服务业的新增订单加速增长。受此影响，澳大利亚私营企业当月增加用工，让 ...

新华财经悉尼1月2日电（记者李晓渝）金融分析公司标普全球（S&P Global）公布的最新数据报告显 示，2025年12月标普全球澳大利亚制造业采购经理指数（S&P Global Australia Manufacturing PMI）保持 在51.6点不变。 此外，澳大利亚制造业的商业信心在12月保持积极。企业普遍期待新产品推出和业务扩张计划将在未来 12个月推动销售和产出增长。商业信心水平达到4个月来的最高点。 标普全球经济学家潘婧怡表示，12月澳大利亚制造业继续扩张，这主要是由国内需求走强所推动的，当 月的外贸销售仍然低迷。她说，尽管12月新增订单和产出增速均有所放缓，但企业信心的提高以及用工 和采购活动的增加仍是积极信号，反映出制造业企业对2026年产出增长抱有更乐观的预期。 （文章来源：新华财经） 新增订单上升和生产需求增加仍然带动企业进一步增加用工，用工增速达到9个月来最高水平。未完成 工作量因此进一步下降。同时，虽然一些企业增加了采购活动以补充库存，但总体来看，制造业的投入 品库存在12月仍小幅下降，这是该项指标连续第3个月下滑。 价格方面，12月制造业的平均投入成本价格继续上升。此外，受投入品 ...

2025年那场创纪录的美国政府停摆，导致旅客航班取消、联邦政府工作人员薪资停发，还拖累了美国的 经济增长。如今，这一切乃至更多糟糕状况是否会再度上演？ 美国国会将于下周初复会，新一轮部分政府停摆的风险确实存在。就在2025年末那场长达43天的停摆刚 刚结束之际，议员们又要面对1月30日这一避免停摆的关键截止日期。 即便如此，议员们在1月6日重返华盛顿后，仍将面临艰巨的工作任务。道明考恩集团（TD Cowen）分 析师克里斯・克鲁格（Chris Krueger）指出，参议院已准备好交通、国防、医疗等领域的拨款法案。其 他领域的支出则可能需要临时预算来覆盖。美国政府的完全运转需要通过12项独立的拨款法案。 克鲁格在一份报告中表示："通过的拨款法案越多，新一轮政府停摆可能造成的冲击就越小。" 政府停摆并不意味着所有政府服务都会中断。美军将继续执行任务，美国邮政署也会正常运营，社会保 障金与联邦医疗保险的发放同样不受影响。 上一轮创纪录的政府停摆，源于民主党与共和党就《平价医疗法案》补贴问题的激烈争执。这些强化补 贴于2025年年底到期，国会计划在1月份重新审议相关议题。 特朗普及其他共和党官员将这场创纪录的停摆归咎 ...

Group 1 - The former Bank of Japan policy committee member Yutaka Harada emphasizes the need for a cautious approach to interest rate hikes while advocating for stronger fiscal, monetary, and tax policies to stimulate the economy [1][6] - Harada suggests that the current government under Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi should aim for a "high-pressure economy" to drive growth through comprehensive demand stimulation [1][6] - He notes that current inflation in Japan is partly driven by supply-side factors, such as rising rice prices, indicating that further interest rate hikes may have limited effectiveness in controlling this type of inflation [1][6] Group 2 - Moody's chief economist Mark Zandi expresses skepticism about the underlying economic conditions in the U.S., despite strong third-quarter GDP data [2][7] - Zandi believes that the U.S. economy is on the brink of recession, and the latest GDP report has not renewed his confidence in the economic outlook [2][8] - He points out that while actual GDP growth appears significant, a deeper analysis reveals a growth rate closer to 2%, which is insufficient for job creation as the unemployment rate continues to rise [2][8]

Core Insights - S&P Global's latest report indicates that the S&P Global Australia Composite PMI rose to 52.6 in November, the highest level since August, up from 52.1 in the previous month [1][2] - The overall output of Australia's private sector has increased for the fourteenth consecutive month, with a notable rise in growth compared to the previous two months [1][2] Economic Indicators - In November, Australia's manufacturing output returned to growth, and service sector business activity accelerated, contributing to the overall increase in private sector output [2] - New business in the private sector also rose in November, driven by a first increase in manufacturing new orders in three months [2] Employment and Costs - Private enterprises increased hiring in November, leading to a reduction in backlogs of orders [2] - Despite these positive trends, the level of business confidence among private enterprises remained nearly unchanged compared to October, and both input costs and selling prices saw slight increases [2] Sector Performance - The service sector benefited from rising domestic demand and significant improvements in international demand, particularly due to a rebound in tourism activities, which contributed to a noticeable increase in business activity compared to October [2] - The recovery in manufacturing output also played a crucial role in supporting the overall expansion of Australia's private economy [2]

Core Insights - BTC remains stable in the $80,000 range, with improved risk sentiment pushing the probability of a rate cut in December to 85% [1] - Inflation remains high and labor data is weakening, with upcoming unemployment claims and ADP data set to further test macro expectations [1] - Crypto fund flows are weak, with ETFs continuing to see net outflows, and most products below $1 million NAV [1] - Year-end BTC faces significant downward hedging pressure, with supply-side factors potentially suppressing price increases towards $90,000, while the $80,000 to $82,000 range remains a critical support zone [1]

Core Insights - THPX Signal Source is an advanced financial analysis tool that focuses on real-time monitoring of gold price trends through XAUBTC, helping investors efficiently seize market opportunities [1][7] - The combination of gold (XAU) and Bitcoin (BTC) signals provides a unique perspective for analyzing global markets, reflecting both traditional and emerging asset dynamics [1][3] Functionality and Mechanism - The XAUBTC real-time signal operates by analyzing the correlation between gold and Bitcoin price movements, with gold influenced by traditional economic indicators and Bitcoin more sensitive to technological developments [3] - THPX Signal Source collects paired data and uses pattern recognition technology to identify dominant signals for gold trends, filtering out noise to highlight key trend signals [3][5] - The system enhances analysis efficiency and reduces decision-making errors, as evidenced by increased trading success rates reported by users [3][5] Positive Impacts - THPX Signal Source plays a crucial role in risk management by providing real-time alerts that lower the probability of significant losses from overexposure [5][7] - It supports intelligent decision-making, allowing investors to customize strategies and optimize asset allocation for stable returns [5][7] - Historical performance indicates that accurately capturing gold trends can lead to long-term compound growth, while also hedging against risks in the digital market [5][8] Future Directions - The tool aims to enhance market transparency, enabling individual and small investors to gain insights similar to professional institutions, thereby reducing information asymmetry [5] - Future optimizations may include integrating more real-time sources, such as social media data, to improve trend prediction comprehensiveness [5][8]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Moody's achieved record quarterly revenue exceeding $2 billion for the first time, marking an 11% increase from the same quarter last year [6] - Adjusted operating margin reached almost 53%, up over 500 basis points year-over-year, indicating significant operating leverage [6] - Adjusted diluted EPS was $3.92, reflecting a 22% increase from the previous year [6] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Ratings business (MIS) reported a 12% revenue growth, surpassing $1 billion in quarterly revenue for the third consecutive quarter [7] - Transaction revenue in MIS rose 14%, with recurring revenue increasing by 8% year-over-year [20] - Moody's Analytics (MA) experienced a 9% revenue growth, with ARR reaching nearly $3.4 billion, up 8% compared to last year [12][26] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The issuance pipeline remains robust, with demand for debt financing strong in private credit, AI-powered data center expansion, and infrastructure development [8][9] - Refunding needs over the next four years are projected to exceed $5 trillion, indicating a compound annual growth rate of 10% from 2018 to 2025 [9] - Spec-grade bond maturities in the U.S. increased by over 20%, while EMEA spec-grade bonds and loans rose by approximately 20% [10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Moody's is focused on investing in scalable solutions across high-growth markets while simplifying its product suite [12] - The company is expanding its presence in emerging markets, including acquiring a majority interest in Meris, a leading ratings agency in Egypt [18] - Partnerships, such as with Salesforce, are crucial for embedding data into partner ecosystems, enhancing customer integration and retention [16] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the issuance environment heading into 2026, citing tight spreads and potential Fed easing as positive factors [58] - The company anticipates continued growth in private credit and a robust M&A environment, with expectations for M&A issuance to increase by 15% to 20% for the full year 2025 [25][58] - Risks remain, including ongoing tariff negotiations and potential impacts from a prolonged government shutdown [26] Other Important Information - Moody's is increasing its full-year guidance across almost all metrics, reflecting strong growth and operating leverage [5][19] - The company is raising its adjusted diluted EPS guidance to a range of $14.50 to $14.75, implying roughly 17% growth at the midpoint compared to last year [34] - Free cash flow is anticipated to be approximately $2.5 billion, with share repurchase guidance increased to at least $1.5 billion [34] Q&A Session Summary Question: Thoughts on AI in the analytics business - Management indicated that AI is being embedded into various workflow solutions and that they have developed over 50 domain-specific agents leveraging proprietary data [38][40] Question: Impact of third quarter's record issuance - Management noted that pull forward activity is more prevalent in spec-grade than in investment-grade issuers, with healthy maturity walls expected [44] Question: Proprietary data sets in KYC solutions - Management highlighted the unique data sets used in KYC solutions, including Orbis and politically exposed persons data, which provide a comprehensive view of business relationships [47][49] Question: Differences in refi walls portrayal - Management clarified that the article referenced a decline in U.S. spec-grade refi walls, which is a subset of broader maturities, and emphasized the overall favorable refinancing environment [52][54] Question: Outlook for issuance in 2026 - Management expressed optimism about the issuance environment, citing more tailwinds than headwinds, including tight spreads and a robust M&A pipeline [58][60] Question: Concerns about private credit health - Management acknowledged potential credit stress in the private market but emphasized the importance of independent credit assessments and the flow back into public markets [70]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Moody's achieved record quarterly revenue exceeding $2 billion for the first time, marking an 11% increase from the same quarter last year [6] - Adjusted operating margin reached almost 53%, up over 500 basis points year-over-year, indicating significant operating leverage [6] - Adjusted diluted EPS was $3.92, reflecting a 22% increase from the previous year [6][34] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Moody's Investors Service (MIS) reported a 12% revenue growth, surpassing $1 billion in quarterly revenue for the third consecutive quarter [7][20] - Revenue from private credit grew over 60% in the third quarter, driven by strong demand in fund finance and business development companies [11] - Moody's Analytics (MA) revenue grew 9% year-over-year, with an ARR of nearly $3.4 billion, up 8% from last year [12][26] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The issuance pipeline remains robust, with projected refunding needs exceeding $5 trillion over the next four years, a 10% compound annual growth rate from 2018 to 2025 [9] - Spec-grade bond maturities in the U.S. increased by more than 20%, indicating a favorable backdrop for future issuance [10] - Investment-grade revenue declined by 17% year-over-year, reflecting a 6% drop in issuance, but overall activity remained solid due to large M&A transactions [22] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on investing in scalable solutions across high-growth markets while simplifying its product suite [12][13] - Moody's is expanding its presence in emerging markets, acquiring a majority interest in Meris, a leading ratings agency in Egypt [18] - The strategy includes embedding AI into workflows and enhancing partnerships, such as with Salesforce, to drive growth [16][17] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the issuance environment heading into 2026, citing tight spreads and potential Fed easing as positive factors [56] - The company anticipates mid-single-digit issuance growth for the full year, with M&A activity expected to contribute positively [25] - Risks remain from ongoing trade negotiations and potential government shutdown impacts, but the updated guidance accounts for plausible scenarios [26] Other Important Information - The company is increasing its full-year guidance across almost all metrics, reflecting strong growth and operating leverage [5][19] - Free cash flow is anticipated to be approximately $2.5 billion, with share repurchase guidance increased to at least $1.5 billion [34] Q&A Session Summary Question: Thoughts on AI in the analytics business - Management indicated that AI is seen as an opportunity rather than a threat, with plans to embed AI into various workflow solutions and applications [37][39] Question: Impact of record issuance in Q3 - Management noted that pull forward activity is more prevalent in spec-grade than investment-grade issuers, with healthy maturity walls expected [43][44] Question: Proprietary data sets in KYC solutions - Management highlighted unique data sets such as Orbis and politically exposed persons data, which enhance the value of KYC solutions [46][48] Question: Differences in refi walls perception - Management clarified that the article referenced a decline in U.S. spec-grade refi walls, which is a subset of broader maturities that remain healthy [50][51] Question: Outlook for issuance in 2026 - Management expressed optimism about the issuance environment, citing tight spreads and a potential increase in M&A activity as tailwinds [56][60] Question: Growth expectations for Moody's Analytics - Management confirmed that the medium-term outlook for MA is high single-digit growth, with ongoing investments in strategic areas [72]

Core Viewpoint - The Euro is showing an upward trend against the US Dollar, with the latest exchange rate at 1.1623, reflecting a 0.07% increase. Despite a bleak economic outlook, the European Central Bank (ECB) is unlikely to cut interest rates in the coming months [1]. Economic Outlook - The Eurozone's GDP for Q3 is expected to show slight growth of approximately 0.1%, which is more optimistic than the ECB's own forecast of flat GDP for the quarter [1]. - The ECB may view the current economic weakness as temporary, primarily impacted by a significant decline in manufacturing output [1]. Technical Analysis - The Euro/USD pair experienced a short-term upward adjustment after a previous decline, breaking through four-hour resistance levels, leading to a strong closing on the last trading day [1]. - On a monthly basis, the Euro is supported at the 1.1100 level, indicating a long-term bullish outlook above this position [2]. - Weekly analysis shows that the Euro is under pressure at the 1.1680 level, which serves as a critical support and resistance point for medium-term trends [1][2]. Short-term Analysis - Daily resistance for the Euro against the Dollar is at the 1.1680 level, with ongoing pressure below this point [2]. - Short-term support is identified in the 1.1590-1.1600 range, with expectations for adjustments based on this support level [2].