来源：智昇财论 黄金市场遭遇了"黑色星期三"，现货黄金价格单日下跌超过1.5%，盘中最低触及3268.02美元/盎司，创下6月30日以来新低。美联储维持利率不 变、鲍威尔鹰派讲话打压降息预期，以及美国公布的超预期经济数据，共同构成了金价下挫的"完美风暴"。与此同时，美元指数强势上涨约1%， 达到5月29日以来最高点99.99，进一步加剧了黄金的压力。周四（7月31日）亚市早盘，现货黄金小幅反弹，目前交投于3281.76美元/盎司附近， 投资者还将关注国际贸易局势和美国6月份PCE等数据，周五还将公布非农就业报告。 美联储"鹰爪"撕裂黄金多头 美联储在7月30日的会议中以9:2的投票结果，决定将联邦基金利率维持在4.25%-4.50%的区间不变，这是连续第五次维持利率稳定。然而，会议结 果中两位理事的反对票成为市场焦点。特朗普任命的金融监管副主席鲍曼和理事沃勒明确表示支持降息25个基点，这不仅是30多年来反对票最多 的一次，也反映出美联储内部对政策路径的分歧。美联储主席鲍威尔在随后的新闻发布会上进一步浇灭了市场对9月降息的期待。他明确表示，美 联储尚未就9月会议做出任何决定，并强调将根据未来经济数据谨慎行事。鲍 ...

Fundamental Analysis - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at 4.25%-4.50% and Powell's comments reduced the expectation of a rate cut in September from 65% to 45%, which weakened gold's appeal and increased downward pressure on gold prices [3] - The ADP employment report showed a higher-than-expected increase in private sector jobs for July, and the second quarter GDP growth rate was 3.0%, both of which diminished market expectations for Fed easing and led to gold sell-off [3] - The global macro environment has seen the Trump administration reach several trade agreements and impose high tariffs, which alleviated concerns about the U.S. withdrawing from global affairs, boosting confidence in the dollar but increasing global economic uncertainty [3] Technical Analysis - On the daily chart, gold experienced a significant decline after a brief correction, indicating a continued weak trend. The 5-day moving average has crossed below multiple longer-term averages, suggesting a bearish outlook [6] - Key resistance is identified at 3310, and as long as gold prices remain below this level, a bearish stance is advised. The primary support level is at 3268, with further support at 3248/3245 if this level is breached [6][7] - On the four-hour chart, gold failed to hold above the previous low of 3302/3301 and instead broke lower, necessitating close monitoring of the downward trend. The key level to watch is 3334, which, if surpassed, could indicate a potential reversal [7]