Macro News - The Shanghai gold futures price is reported at 860.00 CNY per gram, with an increase of 1.03%, opening at 861.34 CNY per gram, reaching a high of 862.10 CNY and a low of 853.74 CNY [1] - The preliminary value of the US September S&P Global Manufacturing PMI is 52, matching expectations but down from the August final value of 53. The Services PMI preliminary value is 53.9, and the Composite PMI preliminary value is 53.6, both below expectations and marking a three-month low [1] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that many indicators, such as stock prices, are currently overvalued, but he stated that it is not a time of high financial stability risk. He did not provide any hints regarding potential interest rate cuts in the upcoming October meeting, disappointing the market [1] Institutional Views - There is some internal disagreement within the Federal Reserve regarding potential interest rate cuts for the remainder of the year, but the newly appointed member supports continued rate cuts. The next Federal Reserve Chair is expected to lean towards the accommodative stance of the Trump administration, leading to market optimism about two rate cuts this year [2] - The risk of a government shutdown in the US has increased due to the rejection of funding proposals. Global political risks remain, particularly with several countries supporting Palestinian statehood, which may suppress risk appetite [2] - Short-term volatility risks in stock markets, including China, are rising, potentially leading to changes in investment direction. The favorable performance of precious metals may attract more investment [2]

Fundamental Analysis - The price of spot gold reached a new historical high of $3508.74 per ounce, driven by increasing global economic uncertainty and strong expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut this month [1][3] - On September 1, spot gold surged to over a four-month high, peaking at $3489.78 per ounce, closing at $3476.08 per ounce, reflecting investor sentiment towards a potential 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve [1][3] - The CME FedWatch tool indicates a 90% probability of a rate cut this month, with expectations of cumulative cuts of about 100 basis points by fall 2026, influenced by dovish comments from San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly [1][3] Dollar Influence - The continuous decline of the US dollar has been a key catalyst for the rise in gold prices, with the dollar index hitting a five-week low of 97.52 and closing at 97.66, down approximately 0.17% [3] - The dollar has accumulated a decline of 2.2% as a result of a court ruling deeming many of Trump's tariff measures illegal, which has weakened the dollar's strong position [3] Global Political Risks - Political uncertainty in Europe, particularly with rising support for populist and far-right parties in the UK, France, and Germany, has further supported gold and silver prices [3][4] - The potential for political instability due to the inability to address immigration and cost of living issues has raised market concerns, contributing to a flight to safe-haven assets like gold [4] Market Sentiment - The strong performance of gold is attributed to a combination of Federal Reserve rate cut expectations, a weakening dollar, trade policy changes, and global political risks, enhancing the appeal of precious metals as safe-haven assets [4] - Traders are expected to focus on upcoming US employment data this week, which may influence market sentiment [4] Technical Analysis - The daily chart indicates that gold prices are approaching previous historical highs, suggesting potential for further upward movement if the $3500 level is breached [6] - Short-term trading strategies suggest attempting long positions in the range of $3485-$3490, with targets set around $3520-$3535 [7]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have surged past $3500 per ounce, reaching a historical high, driven by strong expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut, a weakening dollar, trade policy changes, and global political risks [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The recent rally in gold prices reflects heightened investor sentiment regarding potential Federal Reserve rate cuts, particularly in light of the recent announcement of a possible dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook by Trump, raising concerns about the independence of the Fed [1][2]. - Gold has recorded five consecutive days of gains, with the market exhibiting extreme emotional behavior, particularly during the Asian trading session [2]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - Technically, gold is currently overbought, and the recent price movements are not supported by conventional indicators, suggesting a need for caution regarding potential short-term corrections [2]. - The recommendation for trading is to wait for price corrections to support levels before entering long positions, rather than chasing high prices, to optimize risk-reward ratios [2][3]. Group 3: Trading Recommendations - The suggested trading strategy includes buying gold at the range of $3487-$3488 with a stop loss at $3479 and a target of $3500-$3520, while advising to consider short positions if prices drop below $3480 [3].

Group 1: Fundamental Analysis - The expectation of a Federal Reserve rate cut is a key driver, with a 90% probability of a 25 basis point cut in September and a high likelihood of a cumulative 100 basis point cut by fall 2026 [2] - The weakening dollar is exacerbated by trade policy changes, with the dollar index hitting a five-week low of 97.52, influenced by a court ruling against Trump's tariffs [4] - Strong industrial demand and tight supply are driving silver prices, supported by a low interest rate environment that reduces holding costs [5] Group 2: Technical Analysis - Gold has formed a strong bullish trend with five consecutive daily gains, supported by the moving average system, with key support levels at 3440 and 3437 [9] - The four-hour analysis indicates that gold is in a five-wave upward structure, with attention needed on potential resistance at 3500 and 3520 [10] Group 3: Market Sentiment - Rising global political risks, including the rise of far-right parties in Europe, are increasing safe-haven demand for precious metals [6] - Investor sensitivity to geopolitical risks is heightened, further boosting demand for gold and silver as hedges against uncertainty [6]