一项埋藏在千页预算法案深处的"隐秘条款"，正悄然引发华尔街恐慌—— 这个被称为第899条的模糊税收条款，可能将贸易战升级为资本战，直接威胁外国投 资者持有的数万亿美元美国资产。 这项条款出现在上周美国众议院通过的《大漂亮法案》税收与支出议案中，其标题为"针对不公平外国税收的执法补救措施"。条款提出：对于被美国认定存 在"歧视性"税收政策的国家，将大幅提高该国企业和个人在美投资的税率。 具体而言，这项措施将对目标国家投资者在美国的被动收入（如利息和股息）征收递增式惩罚税， 首先提高5个百分点，然后每年再增加5个百分点，最高可达 法定税率基础上的20个百分点。 第899条款的风险在周三美国法院阻止特朗普对等关税后变得更加紧迫。 关税一直被视为资助特朗普减税计划的重要来源——而减税正是其《大漂亮法案》的 标志性内容。关税收入的不确定性，让政府更迫切地寻找替代资金来源。 这一策略与白宫经济顾问委员会主席Stephen Miran去年11月提出所谓海湖庄园协议高度吻合。 Miran当时呼吁对美国国债的外国投资者征收"使用费"，以削 弱美元并提高美国制造商竞争力。 如果该立法获得通过，它将有效引入自1984年《赤字削减法 ...

Core Viewpoint - The introduction of Clause 899 in the recent tax and spending bill poses a significant threat to foreign investors holding U.S. assets, potentially escalating the trade war into a capital war [1][2]. Group 1: Legislative Impact - Clause 899 aims to impose increased tax rates on investors from countries deemed to have "discriminatory" tax policies, starting with a 5% increase on passive income, escalating by 5% annually, up to a maximum of 20% [1]. - This legislation represents the most extensive unfavorable change to foreign capital tax treatment since the 1984 Deficit Reduction Act and the 1966 Foreign Investor Tax Act [2]. Group 2: Targeted Entities - The clause primarily targets countries that impose digital services taxes on large tech companies like Meta, including Canada, the UK, France, and Australia, as well as those utilizing global minimum corporate tax agreements [3]. - Affected parties include sovereign wealth funds, pension funds, government investment entities, retail investors, and companies holding U.S. assets [3]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Predictions - Analysts predict that the clause could disrupt bond markets even before it is utilized, as it is seen as a tool for the Trump administration to negotiate against digital services taxes [5]. - The clause is expected to receive broad Republican support, increasing its likelihood of being included in the final Senate reconciliation bill [5]. Group 4: Economic Consequences - If passed, Clause 899 could generate an estimated $116 billion in tax revenue over ten years, but it may also lead to a significant withdrawal of foreign investment from U.S. assets [6]. - The current market response appears calm, but U.S. assets have underperformed this year, with the S&P 500 rising only about 0.4%, compared to a 20% increase in the German benchmark index [6]. Group 5: Broader Implications - The clause's implementation could undermine the attractiveness of U.S. Treasury securities for foreign investors, further pressuring the dollar and potentially increasing long-term interest rates [7]. - The overall sentiment suggests that the U.S. may face challenges in maintaining its status as a favorable investment destination due to the adverse tax environment introduced by Clause 899 [7].