Core Viewpoint - The current global crisis is fundamentally a shift of power from the West to the East, suggesting that the situation may persist until effective solutions are found [1] Group 1: Historical Context - Signs of global chaos emerged as early as 2008, when the political elite in the U.S. lost confidence, coinciding with China's rise [5] - The year 2016 marked a critical point in the collapse of Western hegemony, with a significant shift in U.S. policy towards China following Trump's election [5] Group 2: Economic Strategies - The U.S. is repeating historical patterns similar to the 1929 crisis, where it initiated a tariff war out of fear of losing its dominant position, leading to global economic fragmentation [7] - The current U.S. approach, characterized by tariffs, is seen as a desperate measure against a changing global landscape, unlike the past when the U.S. had substantial gold reserves [8] Group 3: China's Economic Strength - China accounts for 30% of global manufacturing output, demonstrating significant influence in the global supply chain [10] - China's semiconductor exports are projected to exceed one trillion by 2024, showcasing its growing independence in technology despite U.S. pressure [10] Group 4: Global Economic Dynamics - Some developing countries remain overly reliant on the U.S. market, failing to recognize the diminishing significance of the U.S. in the global economy [11] - China's Belt and Road Initiative is fostering global economic connections, indicating a shift away from dependence on the U.S. [11] - The future is expected to see China in a more advantageous position compared to the U.S., marking a significant shift in global power dynamics [11]

Group 1 - The current global situation is characterized by instability and uncertainty, largely due to the U.S. government's policies under Trump, which aim to create a chaotic environment [1][4] - The essence of the ongoing crisis is the shift of global power from the West to the East, particularly the rise of China, which has been evident since 2008 [1][3] - The historical context of the crisis can be compared to the post-1929 situation in the UK, where the U.S. felt threatened by Britain's rise, leading to trade wars and economic fragmentation [3] Group 2 - There is optimism regarding China's rise, as it is seen as responding effectively to global challenges, positioning itself advantageously compared to the U.S. in the long term [3][4] - China has become the world's largest manufacturing country, accounting for 30% of global manufacturing products, indicating its significant economic influence [4] - The reliance of some developing countries on the U.S. market is viewed as a potential source of uncertainty, as they may not fully recognize the diminishing importance of the U.S. in the current global landscape [4]