Core Viewpoint - The current global crisis is fundamentally a shift of power from the West to the East, suggesting that the situation may persist until effective solutions are found [1] Group 1: Historical Context - Signs of global chaos emerged as early as 2008, when the political elite in the U.S. lost confidence, coinciding with China's rise [5] - The year 2016 marked a critical point in the collapse of Western hegemony, with a significant shift in U.S. policy towards China following Trump's election [5] Group 2: Economic Strategies - The U.S. is repeating historical patterns similar to the 1929 crisis, where it initiated a tariff war out of fear of losing its dominant position, leading to global economic fragmentation [7] - The current U.S. approach, characterized by tariffs, is seen as a desperate measure against a changing global landscape, unlike the past when the U.S. had substantial gold reserves [8] Group 3: China's Economic Strength - China accounts for 30% of global manufacturing output, demonstrating significant influence in the global supply chain [10] - China's semiconductor exports are projected to exceed one trillion by 2024, showcasing its growing independence in technology despite U.S. pressure [10] Group 4: Global Economic Dynamics - Some developing countries remain overly reliant on the U.S. market, failing to recognize the diminishing significance of the U.S. in the global economy [11] - China's Belt and Road Initiative is fostering global economic connections, indicating a shift away from dependence on the U.S. [11] - The future is expected to see China in a more advantageous position compared to the U.S., marking a significant shift in global power dynamics [11]

他坦言，当前挑战不少，"我们看到美国特朗普政府正在全球横冲直撞、推行各种关税政策等，试图制 造一种混乱、不确定性、担忧交织的氛围。" 2025年是英国著名学者、复旦大学中国研究院客座教授、伦敦政治经济学院亚洲研究中心高级客座研究 员马丁·雅克（Martin Jacques）开启中国研究的第32年。日前，80岁的他在第二届世界中国学大会期间 接受第一财经的采访，在他看来，当前全球局势处于非常不稳定的状态，危机正以罕见的形式发生。 "其实这一切早在2008年就已有迹可循。当时的情况已显示美国的政治精英已逐渐失去自信，同时世界 也见证了中国的崛起。"他说道，"2016年特朗普当选为美国总统，美国彻底转变了对中国的态度。不仅 仅是共和党人，这是两党的共识：试图通过各种途径遏制中国的崛起，或者改变这一趋势。" 他以1929年后英国所面临的情况进行为例，彼时面对英国的崛起，美国也有深刻的危机感。"此后，美 国政府在20世纪30年代触发关税战。如果没记错的话，彼时的世界被划分为英镑区、美元区和法郎区， 这些都是各国以邻为壑政策的产物，本质是分裂的货币集团。"他回忆道。 当被问及对未来前景的预期时，马丁·雅克说，他对中国的崛 ...