炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 中国国内外的观察人士均认为，中国政府善于解读地缘政治格局变化。与美国总统特朗普不断加剧跨大 西洋联盟裂痕形成鲜明对比的是，北京将自身塑造成一个可预测的贸易伙伴。此外，中国的软实力也正 以前所未有的速度提升。 从电动汽车到风靡全球的拉布布玩偶，越来越多的中国品牌正在拓展西方市场。去年底公布的一项调查 显示，中国的全球形象正在迅速提升。这项对32个国家3.2万人的访谈调查显示，认为中国是未来世界 领导者的人数比例显著上升。 魅力攻势也转化为切实投资。在共建"一带一路"倡议框架下，中国已在亚洲、非洲和拉丁美洲投资建设 港口、公路、铁路和发电厂，构建起一个经济联系网络，从而巩固了其影响力。许多分析人士指出，这 种深耕厚植，加上长期以来不干涉他国内政和"不设政治前提条件"的合作理念，强化了中国作为务实伙 伴之选的形象。 中国将自身定位为负责任的全球参与者，这增强了它的地位，尤其是在全球南方国家中的地位。近期欧 洲领导人对北京的一系列访问也表明，全球北方也在倾听。 来源：参考消息 【今日导读】北京已经成为世界各国领导人年度访问行程中不可或缺的一站。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Ukraine has become a focal point in global political and economic dynamics, with President Zelensky employing a high-risk strategy by cutting off energy supplies to Europe, thereby escalating tensions on the continent [1] Group 1: Energy Supply Disruption - On January 27, 2023, the Ukrainian government announced that the Friendship oil pipeline infrastructure was damaged by Russian military attacks, halting oil supplies to Europe [3] - The Friendship pipeline is a crucial channel for Russian energy supplies to Europe, and its disruption has drawn strong reactions from countries like Hungary and Slovakia, accusing Ukraine of intentionally creating an energy crisis to force political concessions from Europe [3][5] Group 2: Regional Reactions and Implications - Hungary, which relies on Russian oil for 70% of its supply, with 80% transported through the Friendship pipeline, reacted strongly to Ukraine's actions, exacerbating already tense relations and challenging EU unity [5] - Zelensky's strategy appears aimed at pressuring Hungary to compromise on Ukraine's EU membership, but it risks alienating Hungary and other European nations, potentially deepening divisions between Europe and the U.S. [5] Group 3: Broader Energy Independence Efforts - Since the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, European countries have sought new energy supply channels to reduce dependence on Russian energy, leading to the establishment of new supply lines from the Middle East to the Americas [7] - However, these efforts may face challenges, as cutting off energy supplies could lead to soaring energy prices, economic downturns, and social hardships, potentially pushing European nations closer together rather than maintaining support for Ukraine [7] Group 4: Complexity of EU-Russia Relations - The situation highlights the complexity of EU-Russia relations, with ongoing efforts by France and the OSCE to engage Russia for post-war economic reconstruction and military cooperation, while Poland and Germany remain cautious of Russia as a potential threat [9] - Zelensky's actions represent a challenge to the intricate relationships within the region and provoke reflections on future geopolitical dynamics, emphasizing the need for the EU to understand the underlying challenges and opportunities presented by the energy crisis [9][10]

据英国《卫报》网站2月13日报道，根据一项最新分析，美国总统特朗普重返白宫加速了全球秩序的深 刻转变。 加拿大、韩国、日本、德国和英国2025年在联合国投票行为上与美国出现了显著分歧。 报道称，与此同时，中国继续与"盟友"保持密切关系，并开始发展新的合作关系。今年，加拿大总理和 英国首相时隔多年到访中国。 在地区层面，亚洲、非洲和南美洲往往在更大程度上靠近中国。 来源：参考消息 该公司的分析利用联合国大会的投票行为作为地缘政治结盟的指标：就有争议的决议始终投相同票的国 家往往拥有共同利益。 报道称，将特朗普执政的所有年份（包括第一任期）与他的前任奥巴马和拜登进行比较，报告发现，与 美国紧密结盟的国家数量已从46个锐减至仅7个。 尽管大多数坚定站在美国阵营的国家在投票时仍然与华盛顿保持一致，但它们近期与美国保持一致的频 率已经显著减少。 一些变化最大的国家是美国在欧洲、北美和亚洲的传统盟友，现在它们的投票立场不像以前那样经常与 华盛顿一致。 福卡尔数据研究公司的一份报告分析了联合国的投票记录，报告揭示了华盛顿的"美国优先"议程如何开 始重塑地缘政治格局。 ...

【参考消息：#美国铁杆盟友仅剩7个#】#留给美国的盟友不多了#据参考消息，英国《卫报》网站2月13 日报道，根据一项最新分析，美国总统特朗普重返白宫加速了全球秩序的深刻转变。福卡尔数据研究公 司的一份报告分析了联合国的投票记录，报告揭示了华盛顿的"美国优先"议程如何开始重塑地缘政治格 局。该公司的分析利用联合国大会的投票行为作为地缘政治结盟的指标：就有争议的决议始终投相同票 的国家往往拥有共同利益。报道称，将特朗普执政的所有年份（包括第一任期）与他的前任奥巴马和拜 登进行比较，报告发现，与美国紧密结盟的国家数量已从46个锐减至仅7个。尽管大多数坚定站在美国 阵营的国家在投票时仍然与华盛顿保持一致，但它们近期与美国保持一致的频率已经显著减少。一些变 化最大的国家是美国在欧洲、北美和亚洲的传统盟友，现在它们的投票立场不像以前那样经常与华盛顿 一致。加拿大、韩国、日本、德国和英国2025年在联合国投票行为上与美国出现了显著分歧。（参考消 息；视频为央视此前相关报道） ...

然而，莫迪这两项外交成果虽然看似攻下了欧盟和美国，但其中的利弊得失并不那么简单。首先，与欧盟签署的自贸协议虽然让印度享受到了关税优惠和市 场准入，但这也意味着印度必须进一步开放自己的市场。这对印度国内的产业来说，尤其是那些依赖关税壁垒保护的行业，可能带来巨大的冲击。以印度的 汽车产业为例，在没有关税保护的情况下，像塔塔集团等本土车企可能会面临被欧洲大型车企挤压的风险，竞争压力骤增。 过去一周，莫迪先后推动了两项轰动世界的外交事件。1月27日，莫迪在新德里与欧盟领导人冯德莱恩签署了期待已久的自由贸易协定。这个协议对印度来 说可谓是一次重大的突破：欧盟同意对96.6%的印度输欧商品减免关税，最终将覆盖近99%的印度出口。这一协议为印度的对外贸易打开了一扇重要的大 门，彻底扫清了印度商品进入欧洲市场的障碍。 紧接着，2月2日，莫迪又与特朗普达成了关税共识。经过近一年的谈判，美国同意将对印度输美商品的关税大幅削减，从之前的50%下降至18%。这两项外 交成果无疑为莫迪政府的外交政策增添了不少亮点，从国际政治的角度来看，这两项协议可能会成为改变全球地缘政治格局的重要环节。 首先来看欧盟与印度的贸易协议。这份协议涉及的市 ...

智通财经APP获悉，美国与伊朗高层官员预计将于2026年2月6日在土耳其伊斯坦布尔举行关键性会谈。 此次会晤由土耳其担任主要协调方，旨在重启陷入僵局的核协议谈判并缓解日益升级的中东局势。此次 会谈被全球金融市场视为避免地区性冲突的"最后窗口"，其成败将直接影响全球原油供应安全及黄金等 避险资产的波动走势。 据直接知情人士透露，伊斯坦布尔峰会将由美国特使史蒂夫·维特科夫、总统唐纳德·特朗普的女婿贾里 德·库什纳，伊方则由外交部长阿巴斯·阿拉格齐出席。这些人士表示，土耳其外长哈坎·菲丹预计部分地 区大国也将加入，因事涉敏感而要求不具名。 上月伊朗当局对大规模抗议活动实施致命镇压以来，特朗普一直威胁要打击伊朗。伊朗最高领袖阿里· 哈梅内伊周日警告称，若其国家遭袭，将引发"地区战争"。 从资本市场角度看，美伊关系的缓和迹象对近期大幅波动的国际能源市场起到了一定的安抚作用。市场 分析人士认为，伊斯坦布尔会谈的举行初步释放了德黑兰与华盛顿愿意通过对话管控危机的信号。 然而，双方在铀浓缩限额、导弹开发及制裁解除等核心议题上仍存巨大分歧，谈判的前景仍充满变数。 投资者目前正密切关注2月6日会谈是否能产出实质性的框架备忘录，这 ...

法新社报道称，新德里几十年来一直依赖莫斯科提供关键军事装备，近年来，印度试图通过进口多元化 和发展国内制造业来减少对俄罗斯的依赖。欧盟近期已与加拿大和英国签署了类似的协议，旨在加强国 防工业的合作，因为欧盟正面临着"咄咄逼人"的俄罗斯， 同时对美国总统特朗普领导下的美国是否可 靠产生了担忧。 新德里电视台称，目前，印欧联合声明及全新战略议程的谈判仍面临诸多挑战，对此，卡拉斯坦言峰会 筹备工作并非一帆风顺。但她强调，在"峰会必须在快速变化的地缘政治格局中取得实质成果"这一共识 的推动下，各方筹备工作目标明确，与印度合作伙伴的协作也卓有成效。 【环球时报报道 记者 杜天琦】法国国际广播电台21日报道称，欧盟外交与安全政策高级代表卡拉斯当 天表示，欧盟准备与印度签署一项防务安全协议。这份协议将深化双方在海上安全、网络安全和反恐等 领域的合作。卡拉斯在欧洲议会宣布了这一消息。这份协议有望在下周举行的欧盟-印度峰会上正式签 署。 据印度新德里电视台21日报道，卡拉斯在欧洲议会发表演讲时表示，印度正成为欧洲经济韧性建设 中"不可或缺"的存在，欧盟已准备好与印度推进一项涵盖贸易、安全、科技及人文交流的全新重磅合作 议程。此 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government has officially initiated a global sales plan for Venezuelan oil, asserting indefinite control over the country's future oil exports and revenues, marking a significant shift in the management of Venezuela's oil resources following the ousting of President Maduro [1][6][7]. Group 1: U.S. Control Over Venezuelan Oil - The White House has begun selling Venezuelan oil globally, with proceeds deposited into U.S.-controlled bank accounts, allowing the government to decide on the distribution of funds [1][6]. - Energy Secretary Dan Brouillette emphasized that the U.S. will indefinitely control the sales of Venezuelan oil, including both existing stock and future production, focusing on controlling the flow of funds rather than seizing the oil itself [7][8]. - The initial oil sales will come from accumulated stockpiles due to U.S. sanctions, with the aim of stabilizing and increasing Venezuelan oil production [8][9]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Implications - Following the announcement, WTI crude oil prices fell below $55.80, reflecting a decline of approximately 2.4%, while Brent crude also saw a decrease of nearly 1.5% [2]. - The U.S. military has intensified actions against sanctioned oil tankers, including the seizure of two vessels linked to Venezuela, which could significantly impact global energy markets and geopolitical dynamics [5][10]. Group 3: Infrastructure and Investment Plans - The Trump administration is pushing for U.S. oil companies to rebuild Venezuela's oil infrastructure, with discussions already underway with several firms [5][9]. - The U.S. government is considering a compensation mechanism for American oil companies investing in Venezuela, as it aims to restore the country's oil production to previous levels, which may require substantial investment [9][8].

Core Insights - The recent withdrawal of India from oil cooperation with Russia has led to a significant increase in energy trade between China and Russia, reflecting subtle changes in global geopolitics [1][5] Group 1: Energy Supply and Demand Dynamics - At least five tankers loaded with Urals crude oil are currently waiting to unload at a port in the Yellow Sea, indicating a notable increase in Russian oil exports to China [1] - China's typical preference for higher quality and lower-cost blended crude oil has shifted due to substantial discounts offered by Russia, with prices dropping from an expected $69 per barrel to below $30, igniting renewed interest from Chinese buyers [3] Group 2: Geopolitical Implications - India's exit from the Russian oil market is closely linked to international sanctions, particularly those imposed by the U.S. on Russia's largest oil companies, prompting Indian refineries to halt cooperation to protect their own operations [3] - The current situation allows Russia to offload oil at discounted prices, which, while economically detrimental, sends significant geopolitical signals [3][5] Group 3: Future Cooperation and Strategic Alliances - The energy collaboration between China and Russia may pave the way for enhanced cooperation in other sectors, such as the construction of a pipeline to supply natural gas to China, potentially increasing imports to 12 billion cubic meters annually by 2027 [5] - Analysts suggest that the strengthening of Russia-China relations in the energy sector could lead to new geopolitical dynamics, particularly affecting energy security in Europe and prompting other oil-producing nations to reassess their strategies with China [6][8] Group 4: Broader Economic Context - The evolving energy cooperation between China and Russia is seen as both a historical necessity and a contemporary choice, with implications for global energy competition and potential price wars in the international market [8]

Core Viewpoint - French President Macron calls for European nations to consider restoring direct dialogue with Russian President Putin to facilitate a political resolution to the Ukraine crisis [1][3] Group 1: Dialogue and Negotiation - Macron emphasizes the need for Europeans and Ukrainians to establish an effective model for comprehensive negotiations, warning against fragmented discussions with Russia that could lead to stagnation [1] - The recent phone call between Macron and Putin marked a partial restoration of high-level dialogue, addressing various international issues including the ongoing Ukraine conflict [3] - The Kremlin spokesperson described the dialogue as "substantive," indicating a willingness to maintain communication despite significant differences [3] Group 2: Support for Ukraine - The EU will continue to provide necessary financial aid and support to Ukraine to uphold its sovereignty and territorial integrity [1] - Macron's statements reflect a dual-track strategy among some European nations, advocating for strong support for Ukraine while maintaining essential diplomatic contact with Russia [3] Group 3: Future Challenges for the EU - Balancing support for Ukraine with maintaining dialogue with Russia is identified as a significant challenge for the EU in the near future [4] - Ongoing discussions within the EU and among member states have yet to yield a fully unified stance on this issue [4]