证券研究报告：环保 | 公司点评报告 发布时间：2025-10-31 股票投资评级 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 公司基本情况 | 最新收盘价（元） 4.15 | | | --- | --- | | 总股本/流通股本（亿股）52.19 | / 48.97 | | 总市值/流通市值（亿元）217 | / 203 | | 52 周内最高/最低价 4.75 | / 2.92 | | 资产负债率(%) | 53.4% | | 市盈率 | 21.84 | | 第一大股东 | 桐庐源桐实业有限公司 | 研究所 分析师:杨帅波 SAC 登记编号:S1340524070002 Email:yangshuaibo@cnpsec.com 浙富控股(002266) 业绩不及预期，看好抽蓄和核电行业的景气提升 l 投资要点 事件：2025 年 10 月 29 日，公司发布 2025 年三季报。 2025Q1-3,公司营收 161.6 亿元，同比+5.9%；归母净利润 7.4 亿 元，同比-4.8%；其中2025Q3公司营收55.1亿元，同环比分别+11.4%/- 3.4%，归母净利润 1.7 亿，同环比分别-40.7%/-41.6 ...

Industry Trends - The global natural uranium market continues to maintain a tight supply-demand balance, with a projected supply-demand gap of 6,000 tons by 2030 and 31,000 tons by 2035 according to UxC [1] - Supply-side challenges include a 9.3% reduction in nominal production from Kazakhstan's uranium mines for 2026 and delays in new mining projects in Niger and West Africa, increasing supply uncertainty [1] - On the demand side, China's nuclear power approvals remain steady, and the U.S. plans to start construction on 10 large nuclear power plants by 2030, driven by surging electricity demand from AI [1] - Global uranium inventories are decreasing, with UxC predicting secondary supply will drop from 11,000 tons in 2025 to 6,000-7,000 tons by 2030, reinforcing the view of a tight supply-demand situation [1] Market Activity - Since May, the natural uranium spot market has seen increased activity, with long-term contract prices showing signs of rising, reflecting expectations of future supply-demand gaps [2] - In the first half of 2025, the spot transaction volume of natural uranium was approximately 10,000 tons, nearing the total volume for 2024, driven by U.S. tariff policy and increased procurement by Sprott Fund [2] - Nuclear power owners accounted for 35% of the spot transaction volume in the first half of the year, as difficulties in long-term contract negotiations pushed them towards the spot market [2] - The expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September may lead traders and financial institutions to increase procurement, potentially raising spot prices closer to long-term contract prices [2] Company Trends - The international trade segment's impact may have been concentrated in the first half of the year, with expectations for the second half to recover from previous losses [3] - The company reported a net profit of -68 million HKD in the first half of 2025, a 160% year-on-year decline, primarily due to price fluctuations in international trade contracts and inventory accounting methods [3] - Approximately 55% of contracts delivered in the first half were signed at low prices between 2021-2023, with an average selling price of 48 USD per pound, below the weighted average cost of 60-70 USD per pound [3] - The company anticipates an increase in high-priced contract deliveries starting in the second half of 2025, with 4,256 tons of unsold contracts signed at an average price of 80.8 USD per pound, indicating significant future profit growth potential [3] - The company has adjusted its international trade contracting strategy to shorten delivery cycles, reducing risks associated with price fluctuations and mismatches [3] - Profit forecasts for the company indicate a recovery in net profit for 2025-2027, with expected figures of 348 million, 1.039 billion, and 1.123 billion HKD, corresponding to year-on-year growth rates of +1.84%, +198.42%, and +8.04% [3]

证券研究报告 中广核矿业 (1164 HK) 2025 年 8 月 29 日│中国香港 其他金属非金属新材料及加工 8 月 28 日中广核矿业（1164 HK）出席了我们组织的 2025 年秋季策略会， 会上公司就天然铀供需格局、现货/长协市场交易量与铀价趋势、公司国际 贸易板块重点分析，以及对未来展望进行了交流。 盈利预测与估值 公司 25H1 国际贸易业务亏损系一次性影响，且 25H2 起公司高价订单交付 和签约策略调整下盈利修复可期，我们维持 25-27 年归母净利 3.48、10.39、 11.23 亿港币（同比+1.84%、+198.42%、+8.04%），对应 EPS 为 0.05、 0.14、0.15 港币。我们参考 Visible Alpha 可比公司 2026 年估值中枢 （22.1xPE），考虑未来现货铀价波动仍存在不确定性，维持公司 2026E 21.5xPE 估值，目标价 3.01 港币。 风险提示：核电事故风险，行业需求不及预期。 2025 年秋季策略会速递—— 国际贸易跨期合约 25H2 起预期改善 核心观点： 华泰研究 动态点评 投资评级(维持): 增持 目标价(港币): 3.0 ...