证券研究报告 中广核矿业 (1164 HK) 2025 年 8 月 29 日│中国香港 其他金属非金属新材料及加工 8 月 28 日中广核矿业（1164 HK）出席了我们组织的 2025 年秋季策略会， 会上公司就天然铀供需格局、现货/长协市场交易量与铀价趋势、公司国际 贸易板块重点分析，以及对未来展望进行了交流。 盈利预测与估值 公司 25H1 国际贸易业务亏损系一次性影响，且 25H2 起公司高价订单交付 和签约策略调整下盈利修复可期，我们维持 25-27 年归母净利 3.48、10.39、 11.23 亿港币（同比+1.84%、+198.42%、+8.04%），对应 EPS 为 0.05、 0.14、0.15 港币。我们参考 Visible Alpha 可比公司 2026 年估值中枢 （22.1xPE），考虑未来现货铀价波动仍存在不确定性，维持公司 2026E 21.5xPE 估值，目标价 3.01 港币。 风险提示：核电事故风险，行业需求不及预期。 2025 年秋季策略会速递—— 国际贸易跨期合约 25H2 起预期改善 核心观点： 华泰研究 动态点评 投资评级(维持): 增持 目标价(港币): 3.0 ...

Summary of Conference Call on Copper Market Dynamics Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the copper industry, particularly the demand and pricing dynamics influenced by various factors including AI electricity consumption and macroeconomic conditions [1][3][9]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Increased Demand from U.S. Power Equipment** U.S. electricity equipment demand for copper grew by 4% year-on-year in the first half of the year, significantly exceeding the average growth rate of 1-2% over the past decade, driven by increased AI electricity usage and manufacturing reshoring [1][3]. 2. **Impact of U.S. Market on Global Copper Demand** The U.S. accounts for 10% of global copper demand, with actual consumption reaching 2.7 million tons. The growth in U.S. electricity copper demand contributes approximately 1-1.5 percentage points to global demand growth annually [1][4]. 3. **Shift from Financial to Commodity Pricing** Financial attributes previously dominated copper pricing, but following the implementation of tariffs, net long positions of investment funds decreased. Despite this, LME and COMEX showed strong performance, indicating a shift towards commodity attributes taking over pricing power [1][5]. 4. **Limited Impact of Interest Rate Cuts on Copper Prices** Expectations of interest rate cuts are not expected to significantly affect copper prices unless a substantial economic recession occurs. Current supply-demand dynamics suggest stable prices in the absence of drastic changes [1][6]. 5. **Low Inventory Levels and Supply Disruptions** The copper market is currently experiencing low inventory levels across the supply chain, following a period of high upstream inventories. This low inventory state, combined with supply disruptions, has led to a stable pricing environment [1][7]. 6. **Future Price Projections** In the upcoming quarters, two main catalysts are expected to drive copper prices up: the seasonal demand during "Golden September and Silver October" and macroeconomic recovery post-interest rate cuts. Prices could potentially reach around $11,000 per ton [1][8]. 7. **Misjudgment of AI Electricity Demand** The market has underestimated the impact of AI electricity demand on copper consumption. Many view the demand as merely stockpiling, while the actual consumption driven by AI is substantial [2][9]. Additional Important Insights - The overall demand for copper in 2025 is characterized as strong, with significant contributions from the electrical wire and transformer sectors in both China and the U.S. [3]. - The potential for copper-related stocks to double in value is highlighted, with expected earnings per share growth of 40% and production increases of 10-20% [8]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, emphasizing the evolving dynamics of the copper market influenced by technological advancements and macroeconomic factors.