全球秩序从单极化向多极化演进，正在系统性地重塑全球大类资产的定价逻辑。 新华社2月9日援引日本广播协会开票数据报道，在8日举行的日本众议院选举中，自民党获得316个议席，执政联盟赢得过半数议席。我们此前在《2026年潜 在的六只地缘"黑天鹅"》中曾指出，"亚太地区机会主义主体的战略冒险"是2026年需关注的重要地缘风险之一。 年初以来，日本资本市场出现大幅波动，日元、日债双双走弱，日元避险属性明显弱化。近期，在日本政府的引导下，情绪面虽暂获安抚，市场呈现企稳迹 象。但我们认为，日元与日债此番呈现的结构性变化，其深层次原因不能简单归因于短期经济波动，而应置于更宏大的叙事框架下理解——全球秩序正从单 极化向多极化深刻演进，这一进程正在系统性地重塑全球大类资产的定价逻辑，日本资产的波动正是该逻辑转换的具体体现。 二战后日本地缘地位分为两个阶段： 第一阶段：冷战时期（二战后至苏联解体前），日本是美国在亚洲的"桥头堡"。该阶段，日本成为美国在冷战期间影响亚洲的关键支点，至少先后发挥了三 重作用：二战结束后初期，日本作为补给基地，延伸了美国的工业生产链，支持其在亚洲的军事活动；随着冷战进入中期，意识形态与发展模式竞争加剧 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the structural changes in Japan's asset market, particularly the yen and Japanese government bonds, in the context of the global shift from a unipolar to a multipolar order, which is reshaping the pricing logic of global assets [2][4][25]. Group 1: Japan's Geopolitical Role - Japan's geopolitical position has evolved through two main phases: during the Cold War, it served as a critical support for the U.S. in Asia, and in the post-Cold War unipolar order, its value shifted to the financial domain [12][21]. - In the Cold War, Japan acted as a supply base for U.S. military activities and showcased Western capitalist values, while in the unipolar era, it became a capital-rich nation that provided a stable low-interest environment for U.S. capital [12][14]. Group 2: Impact of Global Order Changes - The transition to a multipolar world has diminished the U.S.'s reliance on Japan as a financial lever, as the U.S. faces a decline in hard power and a slowdown in foreign asset expansion [21][24]. - Japan's role is being pushed to the forefront of geopolitical competition, increasing its associated risks and undermining its status as a safe asset [3][21]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Future Outlook - Despite short-term government interventions stabilizing market sentiment, the underlying fundamentals of the yen and Japanese bonds remain fragile due to geopolitical shifts [4][24]. - The ongoing dissolution of the unipolar order and the rise of multipolarity will continue to influence global financial markets, leading to a trend of "de-securitization" of Japanese assets [25][26].

Core Viewpoint - Venezuela has officially launched its liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) exports, signaling a significant challenge to U.S. sanctions and showcasing the country's enhanced industrial capacity despite ongoing military and economic pressures from the U.S. [1][5] Group 1: Energy Export Initiatives - Venezuela's interim president, Rodriguez, announced the signing of contracts for LPG commercialization, marking the start of exports amid U.S. military interceptions of Venezuelan oil tankers [1][2] - In early January, 16 oil tankers attempted to breach U.S. blockades, with 4 successfully escaping, indicating vulnerabilities in the U.S. enforcement of sanctions [2] Group 2: Industrial Capacity and Production - Venezuela's oil production is projected to reach 500,000 barrels per day by the end of 2025, with LPG production capacity also increasing, demonstrating the country's ability to enhance industrial output despite sanctions [3] - The involvement of Chinese companies in the Maracaibo Lake oil field project, with an investment of $1 billion aimed at achieving a daily output of 60,000 barrels, highlights a comprehensive production and transportation chain that grants Venezuela energy autonomy [3] Group 3: Financial and Strategic Innovations - The establishment of a renminbi settlement system allows Venezuela to bypass U.S. dollar restrictions, significantly undermining the effectiveness of U.S. financial sanctions [3] - The U.S. military presence in the Caribbean has escalated, with approximately 10,000 troops and various naval assets deployed, indicating a heightened state of military readiness [3] Group 4: Domestic and International Responses - President Maduro has mobilized citizens to join militia organizations and initiated the "Independence 200 Plan" to protect critical infrastructure, creating a comprehensive defense strategy against U.S. actions [4] - Venezuela's energy breakthroughs are seen as a pivotal moment in the shift towards a multipolar global order, as countries like China, Russia, and Iran strengthen their energy cooperation with Venezuela [5] Group 5: Implications for U.S. Energy Companies - U.S. sanctions have paradoxically led to increased energy independence for Venezuela, with the operational success of the "Arula" self-elevating platform under sanctions demonstrating a technological resilience that diminishes the sanctions' intended impact [5] - Major U.S. energy companies, such as Chevron, face significant risks as comprehensive sanctions could render their investments in Venezuela worthless, given the country's critical heavy crude oil resources [5] Group 6: Legal and Diplomatic Maneuvers - Venezuela is actively utilizing international legal channels to counter U.S. actions, including complaints to the UN Security Council regarding U.S. maritime blockades, which could damage U.S. international standing [6] - Domestic opposition in the U.S. is emerging against the blockade, with some lawmakers questioning the legality and morality of the military actions taken against Venezuela [6]