在开始阅读文章之前，辛苦大家点一下关注，方便后续讨论和分享。作者会不负大家期望，按时、按量 创作出更高质量的内容。本文作者文、编辑均为韩错。 哈喽，大家好，小韩这篇国际评论，主要分析 中美博弈下，美国针对中国所做的战略调整，以及这些调整释放了哪些重要信息。近期，美国发布了新 版国家安全战略文件，引发广泛讨论。文件中提到的不再当世界警察战略收缩等表述，让很多人误以为 中美博弈将会降温。 首先，战争消耗牌未能奏效。美国想复制科索沃、伊拉克战争的以战养霸模式，在东亚挑起可控冲突， 但遭遇了中国总体战准备——完整的产业链战争潜力和深厚的战略纵深，使美国不敢轻举妄动，最终双 方形成一种你来我拦、你走我送的默契对峙。 其次，盟友体系牌出现裂痕。美国试图拉拢盟友进行脱钩、断链，但忽略了欧洲对中国市场的高度依 赖，以及日韩与中国供应链的深度绑定，就连美国本土巨头也离不开中国市场。所谓的联盟，在实际利 益面前显得脆弱不堪。 然而，事实恰恰相反。网友戏称这份文件为逃跑宣言，实际上它反映的是美国对华战略的升级。在此前 极限施压未能达到预期效果后，美国放弃了表面上的硬碰硬，转而采取更加隐蔽、持久的竞争方式。这 才是当前中美关系的真实 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the geopolitical shifts following Trump's return to power, emphasizing the strategic retreat of the U.S. and its implications for Taiwan and its relations with China and other countries. It highlights the increasing isolation of Taiwan and the need for it to adapt to a changing global landscape, where traditional alliances are being tested and redefined [1][5][24]. Group 1: U.S.-Taiwan Relations - Trump's administration is characterized by a strategic retreat, focusing on regional interests and distancing from traditional allies, which includes a potential abandonment of Taiwan [5][24]. - The U.S. has not yet defined tariff rates for Taiwan, indicating a complex relationship where Taiwan is seen as a bargaining chip rather than a partner [5][6]. - The U.S. is likely to maintain its support for Taiwan until it has fully extracted value from the relationship, suggesting a transactional approach to Taiwan's security [5][6][24]. Group 2: Taiwan's Domestic Politics - Taiwan's internal political landscape is marked by a failed recall election, reflecting a shift in public sentiment against the ruling party's approach to China [19][20]. - The rise of "Chinese identity" among certain voter segments indicates a potential shift in Taiwan's political dynamics, although it remains limited to specific groups [19][20]. - The current administration's focus on "value diplomacy" has not yielded significant results, leading to increased diplomatic efforts to maintain international support [8][19]. Group 3: Regional Dynamics - The article notes an increase in diplomatic activities by Taiwan's "Ministry of Foreign Affairs," indicating a proactive approach to securing international alliances despite U.S. strategic shifts [8][11]. - Countries in the region, including Vietnam and Japan, are increasingly engaging with Taiwan, reflecting a collective concern over stability in the Taiwan Strait [13][25]. - The article suggests that as the U.S. retreats, smaller nations are likely to band together, which could complicate Taiwan's position and its quest for international recognition [25][26]. Group 4: Military and Strategic Considerations - The article highlights the increasing military presence and activities in the Taiwan Strait, with multiple countries conducting naval operations, which may signal a shift in regional security dynamics [14][15]. - The notion of "peaceful passage" through the Taiwan Strait is discussed, emphasizing the legal and political implications of military movements in the area [14][15]. - The potential for increased military cooperation among regional players is noted, as countries seek to bolster their defenses in light of perceived threats from both China and the U.S. [18][25]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The year 2025 is identified as a pivotal moment for Taiwan, with expectations of significant geopolitical changes that could impact its status and relations with both the U.S. and China [26][24]. - The article posits that the current trajectory suggests a move away from maintaining the status quo, with increasing pressures for Taiwan to adapt to a new reality [26][24]. - The potential for a more aggressive stance from China is anticipated, as regional dynamics evolve and the U.S. reassesses its commitments [26][24].

短短一天内，特朗普收到了三个坏消息。首先，一份报告透露美国开始实施战略收缩，这是否意味着美国的全球战略正在发生重大变化？这将对当前的世界 局势产生什么样的影响呢？本月初，白宫低调发布了新版《美国国家战略安全报告》，这份报告的内容令外界感到震惊并引发了广泛争议。一些人认为，这 份报告是21世纪后美国战略收缩的标志；另一些人则认为，这是特朗普政府强化美国霸权的新策略，而欧洲在其中则成为了最大的受害者。 首先是美国大学枪击事件。当地时间12月13日，美国布朗大学发生枪击事件，造成至少两人死亡，九人受伤，凶手仍在逃。目前，凶手的作案动机尚不明 确，但美国去年爆发了超过500起大规模枪击事件，因此民众对于这种事件已经变得有些麻木。不过，校园枪击事件依旧引发了广泛的民众愤怒。许多人认 为，这与特朗普政府驱逐非法移民的政策有关。如果这个推测成立，那么这起事件很可能会引发新一轮反对特朗普的抗议浪潮。这对特朗普来说无疑是个坏 消息，因为对等关税已经导致美国在各个领域遭受损失，民众将这一切归咎于特朗普。而且，随着民主党在纽约市和其他州的胜选，特朗普可能面临更大的 压力，这可能对明年的中期选举产生影响。虽然中美休战令特朗普恢复了一 ...

美国战略重心调整：新版国家安全战略显示出战略收缩迹象，重点关注 本土、西半球及印太地区，同时期望盟友在欧洲和中东承担更多防务责 任，反映美国国内矛盾加剧和国际力量对比变化。 中欧关系趋紧：美国削减对乌克兰援助促使欧洲寻求新的合作伙伴，中 欧加强合作不仅促进经济发展，也可能成为未来国际关系的重要因素， 值得关注。 乌克兰援助缺口：特朗普政府大幅削减对乌克兰的军事和财政支持，导 致欧洲援助缩减，未来一年乌克兰战争经费面临严重短缺，可能影响战 局走向。 欧盟应对策略：欧盟探索利用被冻结的俄罗斯资产作为抵押进行贷款， 以填补乌克兰资金缺口，但面临法律合规性和成员国反对等挑战，存在 不确定性。 动用俄罗斯资产的风险：冻结并动用俄罗斯资产可能削弱西方货币信用 体系，引发国际社会不信任，并可能招致俄罗斯的报复措施，需谨慎权 衡。 Q&A 美国国家安全报告和近期中欧互动 20251210 摘要 2025 年版的《美国家安全战略报告》有哪些核心内容和重点工作？ 2025 年版的《美国家安全战略报告》主要聚焦三项重点工作。首先是保卫美 国本土，这包括驱逐移民、禁止毒品、修建更多边境墙等措施。美国防部长赫 格塞斯在里根国防论坛上强 ...

Group 1 - The new U.S. strategy marks a significant shift from its post-World War II foreign policy, focusing on strengthening dominance in Latin America and addressing immigration issues [3][11] - The financial pressures on the U.S. have led to a strategic contraction, which was anticipated by some scholars even before 2022 [3][10] - Trump's administration has previously attempted to reduce U.S. involvement in international affairs, exemplified by the withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) [5][10] Group 2 - The announcement of the new strategy has shocked U.S. allies, particularly Japan, which heavily relies on U.S. support for defense [14] - European countries are gradually enhancing their strategic independence but will struggle to adapt to the changes in U.S. policy in the short term [14] - South Korea also faces challenges as it continues to depend on the U.S. for defense, despite having opportunities for cooperation with China [14]

Core Viewpoint - The article outlines the evolution of Trump's foreign policy since taking office, dividing it into three distinct phases: "100 Days New Policy," "Focused Offensive," and the current phase marked by the Israel-Iran conflict, highlighting the internal conflicts within the Trump administration and the balancing act between establishment Republicans and MAGA supporters [1][2][3]. Phase Evolution: From Comprehensive Strike to Budget Priority - The first phase, "100 Days New Policy," was characterized by a comprehensive approach to foreign policy, attempting to extract resources externally but yielding limited results [6]. - The second phase, starting from May 1 to mid-June, saw a shift to a "Focused Offensive" led by establishment figures, with a strategic focus on isolating Iran through alliances with Arab nations and economic support for Syria [2][9]. - The third phase began in mid-June with the Israel-Iran conflict, where Trump attempted to balance the conflicting interests of establishment Republicans and MAGA supporters [3][12]. Transition to "Focused Offensive" and Underlying Reasons - The transition to a "Focused Offensive" was marked by the appointment of Marco Rubio as National Security Advisor, consolidating power within the establishment [8]. - The shift was driven by the ineffectiveness of the previous comprehensive strategy and the urgent need to pass budget and tax legislation, necessitating cooperation with establishment Republicans [11]. Israel-Iran Conflict Initiating the Third Phase - The Israel-Iran conflict escalated following Israel's attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities, revealing deepening internal divisions within the Trump administration regarding military involvement [13][14]. - Trump's "tightrope" strategy involved quick military strikes against Iran while simultaneously pushing for a ceasefire, reflecting the administration's multiple dilemmas [15]. Outlook and Implications - The potential for a phase of strategic contraction in U.S. foreign policy following the ceasefire, with concerns that establishment Republicans may instigate new conflicts [17]. - Key observation points for the ongoing power struggle between Trump and establishment Republicans include the progress of the 2026 fiscal budget and the Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates [18]. - The U.S. strategic contraction may lead to reduced concerns over U.S. debt financing and create a "stabilizing window" for Chinese foreign trade, as the focus shifts to domestic fiscal legislation [19][20].

特约评论员 苏晓晖：特朗普在候任期间以及执政之后，多次强调美国要解决乌克兰危机，而近一时期关于停火的时间表又再次提出了4月20日这个时间点。 也就是说，特朗普仍然希望在执政百日之内，能够在处理乌克兰危机方面展现自己所取得的成绩。而停火被认为是一个重要的标杆，即使俄乌双方只在部分 地区或者是某一领域实现停火，美国仍然可以展现自己的行动力，强调自己在外交方面，在处置地区热点问题、地缘冲突方面能够产生预期的效果。另外美 国显然现在希望从乌克兰危机当中抽身，节省减少对乌军援的投入，聚焦大国竞争，为下一阶段的战略调整再进行铺垫和准备。 俄乌均避免拒绝停火但难掩立场分歧 责编：黄之安、卢思宇 特约评论员 苏晓晖：同时，对于美方的意图，俄罗斯和乌克兰都心知肚明。双方都避免拒绝停火，希望与美方进行所谓较为积极的回应。俄乌双方也意识 到，如果拒绝停火，至少在舆论上、在道义上可能会使自己处于劣势，是要避免出现这一情况。但是就停火相关的具体条件，很显然现在双方之间仍然有明 显的立场分歧。乌克兰方面以停火向俄罗斯进行施压，要求美国看到是俄方拒绝停火，希望美国对乌克兰进行更多军事方面的支持，进而对俄方施压，同样 也希望阻碍美俄关系重置 ...