2026年2月12日，比利时布鲁塞尔，北约防长会议在位于这里的北约总部大楼举行。此次峰会由北约秘 书长马克.吕特主持，英国、法国、德国、意大利、西班牙、土耳其等北约成员国的防务部长出席了此 次峰会，乌克兰国防部长米哈伊洛.费多罗夫也作为特邀嘉宾出现在了峰会现场。这场汇聚欧洲与北美 32个盟国防务高层的会议，是北约进入2026年的首场核心军事磋商，更是美欧协调跨大西洋防务关系的 重要契机。 然而，这场核心会议中，美国战争部长皮特.赫格塞斯缺席，由五角大楼三号人物埃尔布里奇.科尔比代 班，这一细节折射出美欧关系的微妙变化——美国对跨大西洋防务的重视度下降，而马克.吕特的理 解，实则是欧洲对美国战略倾斜的被动妥协，意在维系美欧盟友关系的表面平和。军事评论员萨苏解析 道，美国接连缺席北约外长、防长会议，只派低级别官员参会，这一行为明确表达了对欧洲的不满和轻 视，北约秘书长吕特只能尽力弥合美欧关系，勉强维系盟友间的表面平和。 代替赫格塞斯出席的埃尔布里奇.科尔比并非传统意义上的五角大楼官僚，而是一位具有鲜明政治立场 的战略学者，他的政治立场可以用几个关键词来概括：现实主义、离岸制衡、战略收缩。 在北约防长会议上科尔比表 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the structural changes in Japan's asset market, particularly the yen and Japanese government bonds, in the context of the global shift from a unipolar to a multipolar order, which is reshaping the pricing logic of global assets [2][4][25]. Group 1: Japan's Geopolitical Role - Japan's geopolitical position has evolved through two main phases: during the Cold War, it served as a critical support for the U.S. in Asia, and in the post-Cold War unipolar order, its value shifted to the financial domain [12][21]. - In the Cold War, Japan acted as a supply base for U.S. military activities and showcased Western capitalist values, while in the unipolar era, it became a capital-rich nation that provided a stable low-interest environment for U.S. capital [12][14]. Group 2: Impact of Global Order Changes - The transition to a multipolar world has diminished the U.S.'s reliance on Japan as a financial lever, as the U.S. faces a decline in hard power and a slowdown in foreign asset expansion [21][24]. - Japan's role is being pushed to the forefront of geopolitical competition, increasing its associated risks and undermining its status as a safe asset [3][21]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Future Outlook - Despite short-term government interventions stabilizing market sentiment, the underlying fundamentals of the yen and Japanese bonds remain fragile due to geopolitical shifts [4][24]. - The ongoing dissolution of the unipolar order and the rise of multipolarity will continue to influence global financial markets, leading to a trend of "de-securitization" of Japanese assets [25][26].

Group 1: Federal Reserve's New Vision - The Federal Reserve's new vision indicates a shift away from its role as a global central bank, focusing more on supporting U.S. government industrial policies rather than total monetary control[2] - The Fed's de-emphasis on total monetary control may provide a solution to the U.S. dollar debt issue, but adjustments to U.S. debt policy could impact core interests of U.S. financial assets, particularly U.S. stocks[2] Group 2: Economic and Geopolitical Implications - Constraints on U.S. government debt could significantly weaken the U.S.-led global order, potentially reducing the dollar's status and decreasing the U.S. GDP share globally, which may lower overall U.S. productivity[3] - The expansion of RMB credit may lead to a rapid increase in China's GDP share globally, with external risks for China expected to decline significantly[3] Group 3: Impact of AI and Inflation - The new monetary mechanism suggests that the Fed may no longer act as a buyer of fiscal deficits, transitioning to a role as a partner in fiscal discipline, creating a new monetary framework[11] - AI is viewed as a structural deflationary force that can lower economic costs and drive productivity growth, suggesting that inflation control should not target AI companies[13] Group 4: Market Reassessment and Risks - The market may reassess companies based on their transparency and efficiency, with potential short-term relief on dollar depreciation but long-term risks to the dollar's position[14] - Risks include the possibility that the Fed's policy implementation may not meet expectations, uncertainties in U.S. economic policy, and the potential underperformance of AI development[15]

策 略 研 究 华福证券 2026 年 02 月 02 日 美联储新机制构建，美国战略收缩 团队成员 投资要点： 1、美联储新的愿景意味着或不再承担全球央行的职责，同时淡化 央行的总量调控，更多转向为配合美国政府做产业政策支持。 2、美联储淡化总量调控，本质上可能是在为美元债务问题提供解 决方案，但是美债政策的调整，触及的是以美股为代表的美国金融资 产的核心利益，需要观察实施的可行性。 策 略 点 评 3、美国约束政府债务是对美国主导的全球秩序的重要打击，短期 或将减缓美元贬值压力，但是长期或进一步弱化美元地位，进而降低 美国 GDP 在全球的份额，也有可能降低美国的广义生产力。因此，美 国的经济、地缘和军事实力都有可能大幅下降。 4、中美关系同时有可能进入一个新的阶段。随着人民币信用加速 扩张，中国 GDP 占全球的份额有望快速上升，预计中国的外部风险将 显著下行。 5、美联储如果着眼于内部生产力的变革，可能推动居民和企业部 门债务扩张，会推动商品价格上涨并伤害美国科技股股价。 风险提示 美联储政策实施不及预期、美国经济政策不确定性、AI 发展不及 预期 华福证券 分析师： 李浩(S021052405000 ...

策 华福证券 2026 年 02 月 01 日 略 研 究 策 略 定 期 报 美国的战略收缩形态可能已经逐步形成——周观 点 投资要点： 近期观点 1、 新美联储主席人选或进一步指向美国正在进行战略收缩并试 图内部改革。 2、 美国或正从世界秩序的管理者滑落为新秩序的参与者。 3、 美联储试图挽救美元信用并配合美国政府重建生产力，但是 变革最大阻力或依旧来自以美股为代表的金融资本。 4、 美国政府部门债务扩张的可能性不大，密切关注居民和企业 部门债务变化，以判断科技股和商品市场的变化。 9、 长期看好保险，央国企，反内卷，中概互联网。 华福证券 团队成员 分析师： 李浩(S0210524050003) lh30530@hfzq.com.cn 分析师： 李刘魁(S0210524050006) llk30550@hfzq.com.cn 相关报告 1、市场状态高频数据库——1 月第 3 周—— 2026.01.26 2、地缘扰动、"抛售美债"与金银——2026.01.26 3、海外科技和商品是对美元债务的避险，中国定 研 究 风险提示 告 5、 美元贬值趋势下，人民币信用或将在全球出现非线性加速扩 张，节奏关注美 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the strategic adjustments made by the U.S. in response to the ongoing U.S.-China rivalry, highlighting that the new national security strategy reflects an upgrade in U.S. strategy towards China rather than a reduction in tensions [1][3] Group 1: U.S. Strategic Adjustments - The U.S. is shifting from overt confrontation to a more covert and sustained competitive approach against China, indicating a strategic upgrade rather than a retreat [3] - The U.S. is focusing on consolidating its resources and reducing its global military footprint while urging allies to take on more defense responsibilities [3][5] - Internal challenges such as rising national debt, a shrinking middle class, and manufacturing hollowing out are driving the U.S. to concentrate its strategic efforts on China [5] Group 2: Ineffectiveness of Previous Strategies - The strategy of using military conflict to maintain dominance has failed, as China's comprehensive war readiness has deterred U.S. military action [7] - The U.S. alliance system is showing cracks, with European and Asian allies heavily reliant on China, undermining U.S. attempts to isolate China [9] - Attempts to provoke China through geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding Taiwan, have not yielded the desired results, as China maintains strategic composure [11] Group 3: Focus Areas of Competition - In trade, the U.S. is pressuring allies to impose trade restrictions on China while attempting to limit China's trade influence through protective measures [12] - In technology, the U.S. is implementing chip export restrictions to constrain China's technological advancements, reminiscent of Cold War tactics [12] - Geopolitically, the U.S. is increasingly emphasizing Taiwan and encouraging regional tensions, while also fostering alliances to counter China's influence [14] Group 4: Long-term Implications - The competition between the U.S. and China is fundamentally about the control of global order and pricing power, with China's rise challenging the established U.S.-centric order [14] - China's strategy focuses on enhancing its industrial resilience, achieving breakthroughs in key technologies, and maintaining strategic stability without being provoked into military escalation [14] - The future of U.S.-China relations is likely to be characterized by a "cold peace" with ongoing friction and competition, emphasizing technological advancement and internal governance resilience [14]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the geopolitical shifts following Trump's return to power, emphasizing the strategic retreat of the U.S. and its implications for Taiwan and its relations with China and other countries. It highlights the increasing isolation of Taiwan and the need for it to adapt to a changing global landscape, where traditional alliances are being tested and redefined [1][5][24]. Group 1: U.S.-Taiwan Relations - Trump's administration is characterized by a strategic retreat, focusing on regional interests and distancing from traditional allies, which includes a potential abandonment of Taiwan [5][24]. - The U.S. has not yet defined tariff rates for Taiwan, indicating a complex relationship where Taiwan is seen as a bargaining chip rather than a partner [5][6]. - The U.S. is likely to maintain its support for Taiwan until it has fully extracted value from the relationship, suggesting a transactional approach to Taiwan's security [5][6][24]. Group 2: Taiwan's Domestic Politics - Taiwan's internal political landscape is marked by a failed recall election, reflecting a shift in public sentiment against the ruling party's approach to China [19][20]. - The rise of "Chinese identity" among certain voter segments indicates a potential shift in Taiwan's political dynamics, although it remains limited to specific groups [19][20]. - The current administration's focus on "value diplomacy" has not yielded significant results, leading to increased diplomatic efforts to maintain international support [8][19]. Group 3: Regional Dynamics - The article notes an increase in diplomatic activities by Taiwan's "Ministry of Foreign Affairs," indicating a proactive approach to securing international alliances despite U.S. strategic shifts [8][11]. - Countries in the region, including Vietnam and Japan, are increasingly engaging with Taiwan, reflecting a collective concern over stability in the Taiwan Strait [13][25]. - The article suggests that as the U.S. retreats, smaller nations are likely to band together, which could complicate Taiwan's position and its quest for international recognition [25][26]. Group 4: Military and Strategic Considerations - The article highlights the increasing military presence and activities in the Taiwan Strait, with multiple countries conducting naval operations, which may signal a shift in regional security dynamics [14][15]. - The notion of "peaceful passage" through the Taiwan Strait is discussed, emphasizing the legal and political implications of military movements in the area [14][15]. - The potential for increased military cooperation among regional players is noted, as countries seek to bolster their defenses in light of perceived threats from both China and the U.S. [18][25]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The year 2025 is identified as a pivotal moment for Taiwan, with expectations of significant geopolitical changes that could impact its status and relations with both the U.S. and China [26][24]. - The article posits that the current trajectory suggests a move away from maintaining the status quo, with increasing pressures for Taiwan to adapt to a new reality [26][24]. - The potential for a more aggressive stance from China is anticipated, as regional dynamics evolve and the U.S. reassesses its commitments [26][24].

Group 1 - The core message of the news highlights three significant challenges faced by the Trump administration, indicating a potential shift in U.S. global strategy and its implications for international relations [1][3][6] - The new U.S. National Security Strategy Report suggests a strategic retrenchment, with a focus on strengthening control over the Western Hemisphere while adjusting military and economic strategies in Asia and Europe [1][3] - The report reflects a change in the U.S. stance towards China, emphasizing a balanced economic relationship rather than viewing China solely as a challenge, which may impact U.S.-China relations moving forward [3] Group 2 - The recent shooting incident at Brown University, resulting in casualties, has sparked public outrage and may lead to renewed protests against the Trump administration, potentially affecting his support ahead of the midterm elections [6] - An attack on U.S. soldiers in Syria, attributed to ISIS, raises concerns about U.S. military presence and strategy in the region, with implications for U.S. foreign policy and military responses [8] - Ongoing tensions between Thailand and Cambodia, exacerbated by Trump's previous claims of mediation success, highlight the challenges faced by the U.S. in maintaining influence in Southeast Asia amidst rising regional conflicts [8]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the geopolitical landscape involving the United States, Europe, and China, with a focus on the implications of U.S. foreign policy and its impact on international relations and economic dynamics. Core Points and Arguments - **U.S. Strategic Shift**: The new National Security Strategy indicates a strategic contraction, focusing on domestic, Western Hemisphere, and Indo-Pacific interests, while expecting allies in Europe and the Middle East to take on more defense responsibilities, reflecting increasing domestic tensions and changes in the international power balance [1][4] - **Tightening Sino-European Relations**: The reduction of U.S. aid to Ukraine has prompted Europe to seek new partnerships, leading to strengthened cooperation between China and Europe, which could become a significant factor in future international relations [1][5] - **Ukraine Aid Shortfall**: The Trump administration's significant cuts to military and financial support for Ukraine have resulted in a severe funding shortfall for the ongoing conflict, potentially affecting the war's trajectory [1][8] - **EU's Response Strategy**: The EU is exploring the use of frozen Russian assets as collateral for loans to fill the funding gap for Ukraine, facing challenges related to legal compliance and opposition from member states [1][9] - **Risks of Utilizing Russian Assets**: The potential use of frozen Russian assets could undermine the credibility of Western monetary systems and provoke retaliatory measures from Russia, necessitating careful consideration [1][10] - **European Aid Measures**: European assistance to Ukraine has been categorized into military and financial support, with NATO's "Urgent Weapons Reserve Plan" allowing member states to procure weapons from U.S. stockpiles, although military aid has seen a 43% decline recently [1][7] - **Challenges in EU Funding for Ukraine**: The EU faces internal challenges in agreeing on budget allocations for Ukraine, with high debt levels complicating the ability to raise funds through traditional means [1][11][12] - **Trump Administration's Pressure on Europe**: The Trump administration has pressured Europe to contribute more to Ukraine's reconstruction, leading to a reevaluation of diplomatic relations with both the U.S. and China [1][13] - **Recent Diplomatic Movements in Europe**: Key European leaders are engaging in diplomatic visits to China, indicating a shift towards maintaining balanced relations between the U.S. and China amid changing geopolitical dynamics [1][14] - **Future Trends in Sino-U.S. and Sino-European Relations**: The economic relationship between China and the U.S. is expected to remain stable, while enhanced cooperation between China and Europe could provide opportunities for economic growth and influence domestic policy [1][15] - **China's Economic Strategy**: China is advised to balance domestic economic work with international trade dynamics, focusing on structural adjustments and high-quality development in response to easing international tensions [1][16] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The discussions highlight the interconnectedness of geopolitical strategies and economic policies, emphasizing the need for countries to adapt to shifting alliances and funding mechanisms in response to U.S. policy changes [1][5][15]

Group 1 - The new U.S. strategy marks a significant shift from its post-World War II foreign policy, focusing on strengthening dominance in Latin America and addressing immigration issues [3][11] - The financial pressures on the U.S. have led to a strategic contraction, which was anticipated by some scholars even before 2022 [3][10] - Trump's administration has previously attempted to reduce U.S. involvement in international affairs, exemplified by the withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) [5][10] Group 2 - The announcement of the new strategy has shocked U.S. allies, particularly Japan, which heavily relies on U.S. support for defense [14] - European countries are gradually enhancing their strategic independence but will struggle to adapt to the changes in U.S. policy in the short term [14] - South Korea also faces challenges as it continues to depend on the U.S. for defense, despite having opportunities for cooperation with China [14]