美国消费者当前面临的总体平均有效关税税率为17.9%，为1934年以来的最高水平。 美国的贸易伙伴正竞相与美方达成新的贸易协议，以抵消特朗普保护主义政策带来的冲击。 截至16日，耶鲁预算实验室估算的数据显示，美国消费者当前面临的总体平均有效关税税率为17.9%， 为1934年以来的最高水平。 上述计算已经包括了特朗普政府于10月宣布的对药品、家具和重型卡车征收的关税。 不过，全球经济和贸易对特朗普政府的保护主义贸易政策冲击表现出了韧性。世贸组织（WTO）和国 际货币基金组织（IMF）相将2025年全球增长的预测小幅上调，但远期的下行风险是贸易限制措施和政 策不确定性蔓延至更多经济体和行业。 此外，贸易的流向显示，全球各大贸易体正在积极重新规划贸易联盟，企业也在寻求其他市场以规避美 国自上世纪30年代以来的最高关税。 新加坡国立大学东亚研究所所长、前国际货币基金组织（IMF）驻华首席代表席睿德教授（Alfred Schipke）对第一财经记者表示，"如今（全球）最国际化或全球化的国家当属中国，而非美国。" "过去80年间，尤其二战后，美国在国际舞台上扮演着独特角色。许多方面（表现）积极，有些或许不 尽如人意，但 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the significant decline in U.S. energy exports to China, marking a complete halt in exports of crude oil, LNG, and coal, which is a historic first since the trade war began in 2019 [1][2] - The U.S. energy sector is facing a profound restructuring of trade dynamics, with China successfully diversifying its energy sources away from the U.S. [1][7] Energy Export Decline - U.S. energy exports to China reached zero in mid-2025, with LNG imports halting for five consecutive months and crude oil imports dropping to zero for two months [1] - Coal trade plummeted from 135,000 tons in January to less than one ton by July, indicating a drastic decline in trade value [1] China's Strategic Response - China has implemented a multi-faceted energy diversification strategy, sourcing crude oil from Russia, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, while also securing long-term LNG agreements with Australia [7][8] - The country has increased domestic coal production by 3.7% and is importing low-cost coal from Indonesia and Mongolia [8] Impact on U.S. Industries - The halt in energy exports has led to significant operational disruptions in U.S. energy sectors, with shale oil drilling platforms in Texas shutting down and natural gas processing plants in North Dakota ceasing operations [9] - The agricultural sector in the U.S. has also been severely impacted, with soybean exports to China plummeting by 97% and corn procurement dropping by 95% [10][11] Trade Negotiations and Tensions - Amidst these developments, U.S. political figures, including Trump, have attempted to leverage tariffs and threats to regain control over trade dynamics, but these efforts appear increasingly ineffective [2][14] - China's strong position in the rare earth market, controlling 90% of refining capacity, has become a critical leverage point against U.S. military and industrial interests [3][4][6] Global Trade Dynamics - The article highlights a shift in global trade patterns, with increased trade between China and ASEAN countries, as well as a growing trade network under the Belt and Road Initiative [16] - The U.S. is losing its grip on global trade, with only 13% of global imports occurring within its borders, while 87% of trade happens between non-U.S. countries [16]