1月非农就业强于预期，失业率意外回落，强化美联储维持利率不变的倾向，利率路径重新定价对金价 形成阶段压制。美元指数维持相对稳定，美债收益率回升，使得贵金属短期缺乏趋势性推动。前期金价 在投机性买盘推动下快速冲高至历史新高，随后两日累计回撤约13%，当前已收复约一半跌幅，显示市 场由动量主导转向宏观验证驱动。中期来看，地缘扰动、美联储独立性争议以及全球资产再配置趋势仍 构成核心支撑。前期上涨的结构性逻辑未发生根本变化，但上涨节奏将更加温和，波动率较此前加速阶 段明显下降。 ...

上海金ETF（159830）紧密跟踪上海金指数，该ETF还配备了2只场外联接基金（A类：014661；C 类：014662）。 消息面上，中国央行已连续15个月增持黄金储备，1月末报7419万盎司，持续释放战略配置信号。 同时，据世界黄金协会调研，全球超九成央行预计未来一年将继续增持黄金，购金潮形成结构性支撑。 此外，联储证券指出，近期地缘政治风险升温，包括美伊对抗加剧、美欧贸易摩擦重启等事件，持续推 升市场避险情绪，进一步利好金价表现。 华泰证券认为，美元信用下降正推动全球资产再配置，央行持续购金将成金价长期基石。若黄金在 金融资产中配置比例升至4.3-4.8%，2028年金价有望达6800美元/盎司，中长期牛市逻辑稳固。 2月9日，国际金价重返5000美元整数关口。 每日经济新闻 得关注的是，Wind显示，上海金ETF（159830）近3个交易日（2026年02月04日—2026年02月06 日）实现连续"吸金"，最近30个交易日累计获资金净流入7.67亿元。截至2026年02月06日，该基金最新 规模为34.36亿元，为深市同标的第一。 （责任编辑：贺翀 ） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网 ...

1月28日，由中国银行四川省分行、兴业证券联合主办的2026全球资产配置白皮书发布会暨"新春投资策略会"在成都举办。发布会上，来自银行、证券等领 域500余位嘉宾各抒己见，帮助投资者构建个性化管理财富体系，同时增强他们的金融风险意识。 "在关税冲击与货币宽松双重作用下，全球资产再配置机遇显现。"中国银行总行个人金融部私人银行中心高级经理、《白皮书》主笔人文晓波认为，A股慢 牛格局基本形成，政策红利持续释放，港股国际化提速，价值重估行情延续。同时，美元中枢下移，人民币双向波动。建议把握宽松窗口期，逢低布局优质 资产，利用波动优化配置结构。 兴业证券首席经济学家王涵对2026年宏观经济格局进行了解构。他认为，当前全球经济正处于新旧动能转换的关键期，地缘格局重塑催生新投资范式。在此 背景下，中国经济韧性优势凸显，在节奏上呈现市场力量与宏观调控的博弈。中长期看，市场热点将显著铺开，为投资者前瞻布局坚定信心。（曾俊鹏） 编辑：穆皓 图为全球资产配置白皮书发布会暨"新春投资策略会"现场（中国银行供图） 中国银行四川省分行副行长郑斌表示，中国银行是全市场首个从买方视角发布个人金融资产配置策略的中资商业银行。该行将以"商行+ ...

Core Viewpoint - Everbright Bank's H-shares are initiated with a "Buy" rating and a target price of HKD 4.62, corresponding to a 2025E PB of 0.50 times, supported by strong group resources and a competitive edge in wealth management and financial markets [1] Group Strategy and Resource Support - The bank benefits from comprehensive financial resources from the Everbright Group, enhancing its non-interest income through a "commercial bank + investment bank + private bank" service model [1] - Everbright Bank's wealth management subsidiary leads in scale, with a total asset size of CNY 1.82 trillion as of the end of H1 2025, establishing a competitive advantage in wealth management [1] Solid Fundamentals and Risk Clearance - The bank is actively reducing high-cost deposits and has cleared existing risks, with a stable non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of 1.25% since 2024 [2] - As of August 19, the implied NPL ratio based on current PB is significantly higher than the actual NPL ratio, indicating a strong asset quality [2] Valuation and Dividend Yield - The bank's stock is seen as undervalued with a high dividend yield, with a projected dividend payout ratio of 30.14% for 2024 and a 2025E PB/dividend yield of 0.39 times/5.77% [2] - Shareholder confidence is reflected in the planned share buybacks by the Everbright Group, which aims to acquire up to 2% of the total share capital within a year [2] Market Perspective and Profit Forecast - There is a divergence between market concerns regarding asset quality and Everbright Bank's actual risk clearance achievements, with a financial investment provision coverage ratio exceeding 200% [3] - Profit forecasts for 2025-2027 indicate a growth in net profit of 0.7%/2.4%/3.9%, with corresponding BVPS of CNY 8.47/8.77/9.32, leading to a target PB of 0.50 times for 2025 [3]

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index rose by 0.62% to 25,426.53 points, with the Hang Seng Tech Index increasing by 1.96% and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index up by 1.01% on August 18 [1] - The market's half-day trading volume reached HKD 171.95 billion, indicating active trading conditions [1] - Notable gainers included NIO-SW, which surged by 8.04%, JD Health rising by 6.94%, and SenseTime-W increasing by 5.20%, while Hua Hong Semiconductor fell by 5.89% and Sunny Optical Technology declined by 2.39% [1] Group 2 - The valuation pressure on the Hong Kong tech sector has been fully released after nearly a quarter of adjustment, with improved risk sentiment and ample liquidity laying a solid foundation for the next phase of growth [1] - The market is awaiting a strong thematic narrative to catalyze a new wave of enthusiasm in the Hong Kong tech sector [1] - The structural changes in the Hong Kong market have led to technology and consumer sectors now accounting for a significant portion of the market, shifting away from the previous dominance of finance and real estate [1] Group 3 - Global capital reallocation is expected to make Chinese assets a safe haven as overseas funds seek alternatives to dollar-denominated assets [2] - The Hong Kong market is experiencing a qualitative change with an influx of high-quality companies, which is fundamental for the sustainable bullish trend in the market [2] - The proportion of overseas funds allocated to Chinese assets remains relatively low, suggesting potential for future inflows if market sentiment stabilizes and international relations improve [2] Group 4 - The valuation system is undergoing a significant upgrade, with the Hang Seng Index's PE ratio rising from approximately 7.5 times to 11.6 times, aligning with the ten-year average and indicating room for further appreciation [2] - The Hong Kong tech sector is entering a golden window for systematic valuation reshaping, driven by multiple favorable factors including AI demand and rational market behavior [2] - The launch of the Hong Kong Stock Connect Tech ETF (159101) provides investors with an excellent opportunity to invest in leading tech companies in Hong Kong [2]

Core Viewpoint - The recent listings of leading A-share companies, Ningde Times and Heng Rui Pharmaceutical, on the Hong Kong stock market at a premium to their A-share prices have sparked interest in the "revaluation of Hong Kong assets" [1][12]. Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market has experienced a valuation recovery, with the Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, and Hang Seng Technology Index rising by 16.06%, 15.74%, and 15.43% respectively since the beginning of the year, outperforming US and Asia-Pacific markets [1][3]. - As of May 26, 2025, southbound funds have seen a cumulative net inflow exceeding 620 billion yuan [5]. Investment Trends - The inflow of southbound funds has shifted from high-dividend sectors like banks to technology, healthcare, and consumer sectors, indicating a structural change in the Hong Kong market [4][7]. - The concentration of market capitalization in financial, technology, and consumer sectors aligns with the current macroeconomic environment, appealing to investors seeking "certainty + flexibility" in asset allocation [4][9]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the Hong Kong market may attract more domestic and foreign incremental capital due to structural changes and the recognition of high-quality Chinese assets [8][10]. - The valuation of the Hang Seng Index has improved from around 7.5 times to 10.5 times price-to-earnings ratio, suggesting further room for growth compared to historical highs [11]. Sector Preferences - Investment institutions are favoring sectors such as technology, innovative pharmaceuticals, and new consumption in the Hong Kong market [13]. - The innovative pharmaceutical sector is expected to experience significant growth, with 2025 being a pivotal year for revenue and profitability [14]. Conclusion - The Hong Kong stock market is undergoing a transformation, with a focus on high-quality assets and a shift in investor sentiment, which may lead to sustained performance and further investment opportunities [10][12].