·凯投宏观：受美国关税冲击，预计印度央行将开启降息周期至5.0% ·凯投宏观经济学家表示，受美国加征关税冲击经济增长影响，预计印度央行将在10月1日的货币政策会 议上下调回购利率25个基点至5.25%，并将在2025年底前进一步降息25个基点，使利率降至5.00%。美 国关税政策已对印度出口造成显著压力，迫使机构将印度2026年GDP增长预期从此前的7%大幅下调至 6.5%。尽管经济增长放缓，通胀预计将保持温和，到2026年下半年逐步回升至印度央行4%的中期目标 水平。 ·J Safra Sarasin银行经济学家表示，瑞士通胀正温和回升，瑞士央行没有理由急于行动。市场普遍认 为，瑞士央行将选择保留政策空间，待未来经济数据进一步恶化时再考虑启动负利率。 ·巴克莱银行经济学家指出，尽管泰国经济在2025年上半年录得3.0%的强劲增长，但预计在2025年下半 年及2026年将面临显著阻力。增长放缓归因于多重不利因素：出口增长前景疲软、国内政治不确定性上 升，以及旅游业复苏乏力。今年游客到访量持续疲软。泰国通胀水平保持温和，预计2025年和2026年整 体通胀及核心通胀均将低于泰国央行1%—3%的目标区间，反映出内 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that foreign capital is increasingly flowing into China's A-share market, with a net inflow of 6.98 billion yuan from August 14 to August 20, 2023, indicating a positive sentiment towards investment opportunities in A-shares [1] - Passive foreign capital saw a net inflow of 6.84 billion yuan, while active foreign capital recorded a net inflow of 0.14 billion yuan, marking the first net inflow for active foreign capital since mid-October 2024 [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index has risen by 15.87% this year, outperforming major global indices such as Nasdaq and S&P 500, with the CSI 300 Index increasing by 9.81% and the Shanghai Composite Index by 8.66% in August [1] Group 2 - Data from the State Administration of Foreign Exchange indicates that foreign investment in domestic stocks has improved, with a net increase of 10.1 billion USD in the first half of the year, reversing a two-year trend of net reductions [2] - The net increase in foreign holdings reached 18.8 billion USD in May and June, reflecting a growing willingness among global capital to allocate to China's domestic stock market [2] - As the investment value of Chinese assets becomes more apparent and the degree of openness continues to rise, it is expected that more foreign capital will invest in China [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the increasing foreign investment in Chinese RMB assets, with foreign holdings of domestic RMB bonds exceeding $600 billion and a net increase of $10.1 billion in domestic stocks and funds in the first half of the year [1][3] - Foreign investment in RMB assets has shown stability, with a notable increase in foreign holdings of domestic bonds and stocks, indicating a growing global willingness to allocate capital to RMB assets [3][4] - The economic fundamentals of China, with a GDP growth of 5.3% in the first half of the year and a significant contribution from domestic demand, create a stable macroeconomic environment for foreign investment [3][4] Group 2 - The development of China's financial markets, which are now among the largest globally in terms of market capitalization for both bonds and stocks, provides diverse options for foreign investors [4][5] - The need for diversified global asset allocation due to increased volatility in international financial markets has made RMB assets attractive for risk diversification and yield enhancement [5][6] - The net inflow of foreign direct investment into China remains strong, with a reported $31.1 billion in equity investment in the first five months of the year, reflecting the ongoing appeal of the Chinese market [6]

Group 1 - Foreign investment in RMB assets has shown a stable increase, with a net increase of 10.1 billion USD in domestic stocks and funds in the first half of the year, particularly rising to 18.8 billion USD in May and June [1] - The total value of foreign-held RMB bonds has exceeded 600 billion USD, indicating a historically high level of foreign investment in this sector [1] - The proportion of foreign investors holding domestic bonds and stocks is approximately 3% to 4%, suggesting room for gradual increases in foreign allocation to RMB assets [1] Group 2 - China's GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year in the first half of the year, with domestic demand contributing 77% to economic growth in the second quarter, reflecting a robust economic environment for foreign investment [2] - Several international investment banks have upgraded their ratings on Chinese assets from neutral to overweight, indicating a positive outlook on China's growth opportunities [2] Group 3 - China's financial market has developed a comprehensive and deep financial system, with both bond and stock markets ranking second globally, providing diverse options for foreign investors [3] - The continuous improvement of financial market connectivity and investment environment has significantly enhanced the convenience for foreign participation in China's financial markets [3] Group 4 - The demand for diversified global asset allocation has created favorable opportunities for foreign investment in China, with 30% of surveyed central banks indicating plans to increase their allocation to RMB assets [4] - China's role as both a focal point for international investors and a source of outbound investment reflects the dynamic nature of its economic engagement [4] - As of March 2025, China's external liabilities are projected to be 7.1 trillion USD, while external assets are expected to reach 10.7 trillion USD, indicating a net asset position of 3.6 trillion USD [4]

Core Viewpoint - The press conference highlighted the stable inflow of foreign capital into China's financial markets, with a significant increase in foreign investment in both bonds and stocks, indicating a positive outlook for the allocation of RMB assets by foreign investors [1][3][4]. Group 1: Foreign Investment Trends - As of 2025, foreign investment in RMB-denominated bonds has reached over $600 billion, marking a historically high level [3]. - In the first half of the year, foreign investors net purchased $10.1 billion in domestic stocks and funds, reversing a two-year trend of net selling [3]. - The net increase in foreign stock holdings surged to $18.8 billion in May and June, reflecting a growing willingness among global investors to allocate capital to China's stock market [3]. Group 2: Economic and Policy Environment - The stable macroeconomic environment in China, with a GDP growth of 5.3% year-on-year, supports foreign investment [5][6]. - The contribution of domestic demand to economic growth has increased, with final consumption and capital formation accounting for 77% of growth in the second quarter, up 17 percentage points [5]. - China's commitment to high-level opening-up and the continuous improvement of the financial market's connectivity have created a favorable policy environment for foreign investment [4][6]. Group 3: Currency and Market Stability - The proportion of RMB cross-border receipts in goods trade reached approximately 30% in the first half of the year, a historical high [6]. - The resilience of the foreign exchange market is bolstered by a stable economic foundation and improved mechanisms for market-oriented exchange rate formation [6]. - The increasing awareness of exchange rate risk among enterprises and the growth of RMB cross-border transactions contribute to a more rational trading environment [6].