来源：市场资讯 （来源：凭澜观涛） 分析师：管涛（中银证券全球首席经济学家） 分析师：刘立品（中银证券宏观分析师） 研报发布时间：2025年9月24日 摘 要 8月份，美联储降息预期强化，叠加市场对美联储独立性担忧加剧，促使美元重新转弱，人民币汇率升值动能增强，但市场预期保持基本稳定。 8月份，跨境资金转为净流入，主要反映了美债收益率下行、外资放缓减持境内人民币债券的影响，外资对中国股票资产兴趣增强。 8月份，银行结售汇顺差收窄，市场主体结汇意愿减弱、购汇动机增强，表明人民币汇率加速升值并非基本面主导。市场结售汇意愿变化，再次说明市场 主体并未积累汇率补涨预期。 风险提示：地缘政治风险超预期，主要央行货币政策调整超预期，国内经济复苏不如预期。 正文 9月19日，国家外汇管理局发布了2025年8月外汇收支数据。现结合最新数据对8月份境内外汇市场运行情况具体分析如下： 美元重新转弱，人民币升值动能增强，但市场预期保持基本稳定 美元指数重回下行态势。8月1日，美国劳工部公布的7月非农就业数据不及市场预期，叠加此前两个月数据大幅下修，导致美联储9月降息概率陡升。伴随 着就业市场走弱，8月22日，美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克 ...

Group 1: Foreign Investment in China - The establishment of the German SME cluster in Wuhu focuses on automotive parts and high-end intelligent manufacturing, reflecting China's commitment to high-level opening-up [1] - China's foreign investment environment is improving, with the nationwide negative list for foreign investment reduced to 29 items, and the manufacturing sector's restrictions eliminated [1] - From January to August, 42,435 new foreign-invested enterprises were established in China, representing a year-on-year increase of 14.8% [1] Group 2: Foreign Companies' Confidence - Amphenol's new high-end connector project in Haining, Zhejiang, has a total planned investment of 300 million yuan, with an expected annual output value of 1 billion yuan upon reaching full capacity [2] - 92% of German companies are willing to continue deepening their investment in China, with over half planning to increase investments in the next two years [2] - Nearly half of the member companies of the American Chamber of Commerce still consider China one of the top three investment destinations globally [2] Group 3: Growth in Overseas Markets - Lan Jian Intelligent is expanding its overseas market presence, with a focus on promoting Chinese smart warehousing technology [3] - In the first half of the year, over 830 manufacturing companies listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange achieved overseas revenue of 1.1 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5% [3] - A-share listed companies reported overseas income of 4.90 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, reflecting a growth of 4.5% [3] Group 4: Non-Listed Companies and Policy Expectations - Non-listed companies are also accelerating their overseas expansion, with Orange Group's overseas business expected to grow over 400% in 2024 [4] - The Chinese government is expected to introduce more policies to facilitate foreign investment and support companies going abroad [5] - The State Council is enhancing support for companies participating in international cooperation and competition, focusing on improving overseas service systems [5] Group 5: Recommendations for Policy Support - Companies are seeking policy support for customs facilitation, including optimizing clearance processes and simplifying certification procedures [6] - There is a call for more international certification support and precise market information to assist companies in their overseas ventures [6]

Economic Resilience and Retail Sector - In September, China's retail industry prosperity index reached 50.6%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points month-on-month, marking the highest level in eight months, indicating a positive trend in retail development [3] - The retail sector's performance is supported by policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption, with retail sales of 11 categories of light industrial goods reaching 4.9 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.4% [8] Logistics and Transportation - In August, 15 new international air cargo routes were opened, with over 30 round-trip flights added weekly, totaling 152 new routes in the first eight months of the year [5] - The road logistics price index for August was reported at 105.1 points, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.01% and a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, indicating a vibrant road logistics market [7] Light Industry Performance - In the first seven months of the year, China's light industry maintained steady operation with a total revenue of 13.2 trillion yuan and a profit of 760.1 billion yuan, supported by strong production and market scale [8] - The investment growth in the light industry remains robust, with major sectors experiencing double-digit growth rates, surpassing the national fixed asset investment and manufacturing investment growth rates [10] Export Dynamics - Light industry exports reached 535.75 billion USD in the first seven months, accounting for 25.1% of the national total, with 11 out of 21 major categories showing growth [12] Foreign Investment in Guangdong - Guangdong province saw a 32.7% year-on-year increase in the number of newly established foreign-funded enterprises, totaling 17,000 in the first seven months [13][14] - The actual use of foreign capital in Guangdong reached 65.67 billion yuan, an increase of 8.2% year-on-year, with the manufacturing sector accounting for 29.1% of the total [16] Customs Special Supervision Areas - The comprehensive bonded zones and bonded logistics parks have contributed significantly to foreign trade, accounting for one-fifth of the national import and export value despite occupying less than 0.02% of the land area [16][18] - By 2024, the import and export value of customs special supervision areas is expected to grow by over 30% compared to 2020 [16]

Market Performance - On November 5, the three major stock indices opened higher, with initial gains exceeding 1% before a pullback due to military stocks, but later strengthened again, with the ChiNext index increasing by 1% [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3320.13 points, up 1.30%, the Shenzhen Component Index at 13894.26 points, up 1.72%, and the ChiNext Index at 2787.88 points, up 1.36% [1] - Total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 8597.53 billion yuan, a significant increase from the previous day's 7297.60 billion yuan [1] Sector Performance - Most sectors saw gains, with notable increases in automotive, communication equipment, liquor, 5G, steel, consumer electronics, and photovoltaic sectors [1] - Conversely, sectors such as coal, medical devices, planting, cement, insurance, and logistics experienced relatively smaller gains [1] Economic Indicators - The Ministry of Commerce reported that foreign investment in China is expected to maintain a stable and positive trend in the fourth quarter, with actual foreign investment reaching 141.23 billion USD in 2019, a 2.1% increase year-on-year [2] - The China Logistics and Purchasing Federation indicated that the express logistics index for October was 108.6%, reflecting a 0.5 percentage point increase from the previous month, with the manufacturing business express index also rising to 111.9% [3] Institutional Insights - Institutions suggest that the current fundamentals support a strong A-share market, with a focus on technology and consumer sectors for medium to long-term investments [4] - Emphasis is placed on low-valuation financial sectors and the economic recovery theme, particularly in midstream manufacturing and raw materials [4]

Core Viewpoint - The net inflow of active foreign capital indicates foreign investors' confidence in investment opportunities within the A-share market [2]. Group 1: Active Foreign Capital Inflow - From August 14 to August 20, active foreign capital saw a net inflow of 1.4 billion yuan, marking the first net inflow since mid-October 2024 [2]. - The A-share market has shown high investment value, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 15.87% this year, outperforming major global indices like Nasdaq and S&P 500 [2]. - In August, the CSI 300 Index increased by 9.81%, and the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 8.66%, ranking third and fourth in global asset performance [2]. Group 2: Global Asset Diversification - The demand for global asset diversification has created favorable conditions for foreign investment in China, with the stability of the renminbi enhancing its appeal as a risk diversification asset [2]. - A survey of 75 central banks revealed that 30% plan to increase their allocation to renminbi assets, indicating growing interest in Chinese investments [2]. Group 3: Overall Foreign Investment Trends - Recent data from the State Administration of Foreign Exchange shows that foreign investment in domestic stocks has improved, with a net increase of 10.1 billion USD in the first half of the year, reversing a two-year trend of net reductions [3]. - The net increase in foreign holdings reached 18.8 billion USD in May and June, reflecting a stronger willingness among global capital to allocate to China's domestic stock market [3]. - As the investment value of Chinese assets becomes more apparent and the level of openness continues to rise, it is expected that more foreign capital will flow into China [3].

Group 1: Investment Trends - Major global capital firms, including UBS, JPMorgan, and Goldman Sachs, have recently invested heavily in six Chinese companies, indicating a strong interest in the Chinese market [1][7] - Road畅科技, a company specializing in automotive smart devices, attracted significant foreign investment, with four foreign institutions purchasing nearly 2 million shares [1][2] - XinKe Materials, known for high-performance copper alloys, saw substantial foreign buying, with Barclays and JPMorgan acquiring 4.17 million and 3.18 million shares respectively [1][4] Group 2: Company Highlights - Road畅科技 focuses on automotive electronics, producing key products like navigation screens and voice control systems, and has backing from major engineering machinery giant Zoomlion [2][7] - 双一科技, which manufactures composite materials for wind turbine blades, has also drawn foreign interest, with UBS and Barclays making significant purchases [3][7] - 金龙羽, a leading cable manufacturer, is developing next-generation solid-state batteries, which has caught the attention of foreign investors [6][7] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The influx of foreign capital into these companies reflects a broader trend of international investors targeting technically proficient small giants in China [7] - The investments are characterized by a collective approach from multiple foreign institutions, indicating a strong consensus on the potential of these companies [6][7] - The presence of both foreign and domestic capital in companies like 浙江华业 highlights a rare convergence of interest in the Chinese market [5][6]

Group 1 - Foreign capital is increasingly entering the Chinese market, particularly in the chemical sector, which has become a major attraction for investment [1][4][10] - QFII institutions have significantly increased their holdings, with 35 institutions appearing among the top ten shareholders of 223 companies, totaling 1.466 billion shares valued at 28.02 billion yuan [1][4] - The chemical and biopharmaceutical sectors are particularly favored, with 24 and 22 stocks respectively being targeted by foreign investors [1][4] Group 2 - Notable companies like 合金投资 (Alloy Investment) and 新力金融 (New Power Financial) have seen substantial increases in foreign holdings, with foreign institutions collectively buying millions of shares [5][6] - The stock 新恒汇 (New Henghui), which recently went public, attracted significant foreign investment, leading to a price surge of over 150% since its listing [4][5] - The trend indicates that foreign investors are becoming more strategic, often reducing their holdings after significant gains, reflecting a shift from long-term investment to more tactical trading [5][8] Group 3 - Korean investors are increasingly favoring major Chinese stocks such as 小米 (Xiaomi), 腾讯 (Tencent), and 阿里巴巴 (Alibaba), with their total holdings in Chinese stocks rising significantly [10][11] - The influx of foreign capital has led to a competitive environment where retail investors feel pressured, often missing out on gains while foreign investors capitalize on market movements [1][14] - The changing dynamics in the chemical industry reflect a shift from traditional operational focus to a more profit-driven approach influenced by foreign stakeholders [13][14]

Group 1 - As of August 22, 2025, QFII has disclosed holdings in 223 companies, with a total of 1.466 billion shares valued at 28.02 billion yuan [2] - QFII's new favorites include 118 stocks in the second quarter of 2025, indicating a significant interest in these companies [2][4] - The top sectors for QFII investments include basic chemicals, pharmaceuticals, machinery, and power equipment, with 24, 22, 21, and 21 stocks held respectively [3] Group 2 - Among the new stocks, Jinpu Titanium (000545) is the most notable, with 32.22 million shares purchased by foreign institutions, making it a top shareholder [4][5] - Other significant new holdings include Yuyin Co. (002177.SZ), Rongfa Nuclear Power (002366.SZ), and Senma Apparel (002563.SZ), each with substantial foreign investment [4][5] - The top ten stocks by market value among QFII's new holdings include Changdian Technology (600584.SH) and Yinzhijie (300085.SZ), indicating strong foreign interest in these companies [5][6] Group 3 - QFII increased holdings in 51 stocks in the second quarter, with Alloy Investment (000633) and New Power Finance seeing the most significant increases [9] - Three companies, including Shengyi Technology (600183), Jiuhua Company (689009), and Dongfang Yuhong (002271), have QFII holdings exceeding 1 billion yuan [9][10] - Barclays Bank and UBS Group are among the foreign institutions holding over 10 stocks, with Barclays leading with 123 stocks [11]

Group 1 - Foreign investment giants are optimistic about Chinese bank stocks, with Morgan Stanley predicting a potential increase of 15% in A-share bank sector and 8% in Hong Kong bank sector due to stable net interest margins and growth in fee income [1][3] - UBS analysts expect the liquidity-driven bull market in Chinese stocks to continue at least until September, with increasing attractiveness of A-shares to foreign and long-term investors [2] - Morgan Stanley's analyst Katherine Lei highlights that the average dividend yield for covered mainland bank stocks is expected to be around 4.3% this year, making it attractive in the current market environment [3] Group 2 - The macroeconomic improvement provides a solid foundation for the stabilization of Chinese assets, with policy support and improved capital market ecology enhancing the attractiveness of Chinese assets [7] - Foreign capital participation in the A-share market is increasing, driven by a series of measures facilitating foreign investment, leading to a positive cycle of capital market openness and inflow [7] - Wellington Management comments on the optimistic long-term development prospects for China's economy and assets, citing resilient economic models and attractive valuations [7] Group 3 - Analysts from various firms express confidence in the banking sector, with expectations of income and profit growth improving in the second half of the year due to net interest margin improvements and moderate recovery in fee income [4][10] - The banking sector is experiencing a "slow bull market," with analysts suggesting that if dividend yields approach risk-free rates, the attractiveness of bank stocks may diminish [10] - Analysts emphasize the importance of observing economic recovery trends, as weak recovery could maintain the appeal of dividend assets, while strong recovery may shift focus to fundamental performance [10][11]

Core Viewpoint - Scania's significant investment in Jiangsu, China, reflects the company's confidence in the region's open economic environment and the benefits of recent policy changes that facilitate foreign investment [1][4]. Group 1: Investment and Expansion - Scania is establishing its third global industrial production base in Rugao, Jiangsu, with plans to roll out its first complete vehicles in Q4 2023 [1]. - The company has committed over 10 billion yuan to enhance its operations in Jiangsu, including a powertrain project and the establishment of a research and development center in 2024 [1][4]. - As the first wholly foreign-owned commercial vehicle manufacturer in Jiangsu, Scania has benefited from favorable policies that expedite project approvals and reduce costs [2][4]. Group 2: Policy and Government Support - The removal of foreign ownership limits in 2020 has been pivotal for foreign companies like Scania, allowing them to enter and invest in the Chinese market more effectively [1][2]. - Jiangsu's government has implemented supportive measures, such as tax exemptions on imported equipment for R&D centers, which have encouraged Scania to reinvest in technology development [2][5]. - A dedicated project service team has streamlined the approval process for Scania, significantly reducing the time required for facility inspections and registrations [3]. Group 3: Local Supply Chain Development - Scania aims to achieve over 85% localization of its vehicle components by collaborating with local suppliers, which will help reduce costs and improve delivery times [3]. - The company has already established partnerships with 40 local suppliers, with peak annual procurement exceeding 1 billion yuan [3]. - The strategy of localizing parts production is expected to enhance Scania's competitiveness in the Asian market, particularly as it plans to export "Jiangsu-made" commercial vehicles to Southeast Asia and Japan [4]. Group 4: Economic Impact and Future Outlook - Jiangsu has attracted significant foreign investment, with actual foreign capital usage reaching $11.54 billion in the first half of the year, accounting for 19.5% of the national total [4]. - The province's proactive measures to create a favorable investment environment have led to a notable increase in reinvestment from foreign enterprises, with profits reinvested rising by 5.9% year-on-year [4][5]. - The ongoing efforts to enhance the open economy in Jiangsu are expected to sustain high-quality development and attract more global capital [5].