1月9日，美元兑加元维持窄幅震荡格局，市场在多空力量的反复博弈中缺乏明确方向。短期来看，投资 者情绪谨慎，交易活动以区间内的技术性调整为主；但从中长期视角，美联储与加拿大央行的政策分 化、以及两国经济基本面的差异仍是主导汇价走势的核心逻辑，使美元兑加元呈现"短期偏强、长期承 压"的结构性特征。 央行政策分化仍是影响汇价的主线。美联储内部对未来降息节奏的分歧持续存在，部分官员强调通胀回 落尚不稳固，需保持政策耐心，而另一部分官员则倾向于更早启动降息以降低经济下行风险。与此同 时，现任主席任期临近结束，市场普遍预期新任主席可能更偏鸽派，叠加美国政府对宽松政策的诉求， 美元中长期下行压力逐步累积。 但从中长期来看，随着美联储逐步转向鸽派，美加两国利差优势可能逐步收窄，美元兑加元仍面临下行 风险。此外，此前美元指数经历显著调整，全球投资者对美元资产的配置偏好出现变化，可能进一步削 弱美元的吸引力，并间接影响美元兑加元走势。 结构性风险同样值得关注。加美贸易关系的演变、国际油价波动等潜在变量可能引发汇价异动。加拿大 作为主要原油出口国，油价波动对其贸易收支和加元汇率具有显著影响；而加美之间的关税争端若再度 升级，也可能 ...

来源：滚动播报 欧洲央行将于12月18日举行今年最后一次议息会议。欧洲央行行长拉加德此前表示，当前欧元区通胀率 仍接近2%的中期目标，欧洲央行对通胀前景的评估总体保持不变，她还透露会在本周的议息会议上调 高经济增长预期，并强调货币政策处于适当状态。 对经济学家的一项最新调查显示，多数受访者预计欧洲央行在12月18日及未来两年内将利率维持在2% 不变，之后该央行的下一步利率行动将是加息，这与投资者和具有影响力的欧洲央行执行委员会成员伊 莎贝尔·施纳贝尔的观点一致，因为通胀率正稳定在2%左右。 调查显示，超过60%的受访者表示，欧洲央行更有可能上调而非降低借贷成本——这是一个显著的变 化，在10月份，只有三分之一的受访者持这种看法。 即使欧洲央行明年不加息，摩根士丹利的策略师们仍然预计，到2026年第二季度，欧元兑美元汇率将升 至1.3一线。 已经采取按兵不动货币政策的还有加拿大央行，该行上周宣布将基准利率维持在当前2.25%的水平不 变。今年1月、3月、9月和10月，加拿大央行四次均将基准利率下调25个基点，4月、6月和7月连续三次 维持基准利率不变。 道明证券加拿大及全球利率策略主管凯尔文表示，加拿大央行当前 ...

Core Viewpoint - If U.S. inflation data meets or falls below expectations, it may strengthen market expectations for deeper policy easing in 2025-2026, thereby exerting downward pressure on yields and the dollar [1] Group 1 - Analyst Konstantinos Chrysikos from Kudotrade highlights the potential impact of U.S. inflation data on market expectations [1]

Group 1 - The Reserve Bank of India is expected to initiate a rate cut cycle, lowering the repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.25% in October, with a further reduction to 5.00% by the end of 2025 due to the impact of U.S. tariffs on economic growth [1][2] - Swiss inflation is showing a mild recovery, leading to no immediate need for action from the Swiss National Bank, which is likely to maintain policy flexibility for future economic data [1][2] - Barclays Bank forecasts that Thailand's economy will face significant headwinds in the latter half of 2025 and into 2026, with growth slowing due to weak export prospects, rising political uncertainty, and a sluggish tourism recovery [3] Group 2 - MFS Investment Research indicates that the U.S. dollar is under significant and persistent downward pressure, influenced by weak economic growth prospects and narrowing interest rate differentials with other major economies, while global asset diversification is becoming increasingly compelling [1] - Morgan Stanley warns that foreign investors may increase their currency hedging ratios for Japanese stocks, which could become an overlooked bearish factor for the yen, as the current hedging ratio is low at 10-20% [3] - Goldman Sachs suggests that the U.S. dollar is likely to weaken further in the coming months due to declining economic and market performance, although its global dominance will not be quickly replaced [4]

Core Viewpoint - Deutsche Bank analysts indicate that the cost of tariffs is primarily borne by Americans, leading to downward pressure on the US dollar [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Tariff Costs - According to Deutsche Bank, the burden of tariff costs is mainly on American importers rather than consumers, as inflation in the US remains controlled [1] - The expectation is that if foreign entities were to bear the tariff costs, sales prices would decrease, but this trend has not been observed except in a few cases [1] Impact on the US Dollar - The analysis suggests that since the tariff costs are predominantly shouldered by the US, this situation represents an additional negative factor for the US dollar [1]