新华财经柏林1月9日电（记者杜哲宇褚怡）《联合国气候变化框架公约》秘书处执行秘书西蒙·斯蒂尔8 日发表声明说，在所有其他国家共同向前迈进之际，美国却宣布退出《联合国气候变化框架公约》，其 在全球领导力、气候合作与科学方面的退步只会损害自身的经济、就业和民众生活水平。 斯蒂尔说，在《联合国气候变化框架公约》第三十次缔约方大会（COP30）上，缔约方一致认同全球转 型已经不可逆转，《巴黎协定》正在发挥作用，并决心共同推动这一进程走得更远、更快。他说，创纪 录的全球变暖对各国经济和民众造成严重影响，而全球转型是抵御这些影响的唯一途径。 （文章来源：新华社） 斯蒂尔说，退出《联合国气候变化框架公约》意味着美国民众和企业将面临更高的能源、食品、交通和 保险成本。可再生能源的成本持续低于化石燃料，气候变化引发的灾害每年都在更严重地冲击美国的农 作物、企业和基础设施，而石油、煤炭和天然气价格的波动正引发更多冲突和地区不稳定等。 斯蒂尔表示，这一决定还将导致美国制造业就业机会减少。与此同时，其他主要经济体正在加大清洁能 源投资，以赋能经济增长和能源安全。 ...

Group 1: Economic Performance and Trends - Since the onset of the Ukraine crisis in February 2022, Western sanctions have led to a 2.1% decline in the Russian economy in 2022, but a rebound occurred in 2023 with a growth of 3.6%, and a projected growth of 4.1% in 2024 [1] - The resilience of the Russian economy is notable, with a shift towards a "wartime economy" characterized by military orders and manufacturing expansion [5][6] - The agricultural sector in Russia has seen rapid development, reflecting the state's focus on ensuring public welfare despite sanctions and war [9] Group 2: Global Context and Geopolitical Factors - The current global transformation is marked by a shift from a Western-dominated order to a multipolar world, influenced by significant changes in domestic systems and foreign strategies of major countries [2][4] - The "Trump 2.0" era is seen as a critical backdrop for understanding the global transition, with implications for Russia's economic strategies and international relations [2][5] Group 3: Challenges and Future Outlook - Despite the growth, Russia's economic transformation faces challenges such as a projected slowdown in growth post-2025, ongoing Western sanctions, declining birth rates, and a lack of skilled labor [9][14] - The impact of the U.S. tariff war, although not directly affecting Russia, could have significant indirect effects, particularly through fluctuations in oil prices, which constitute a third of Russia's budget [13][14] - The volatility of the Russian ruble poses additional challenges, as its appreciation could diminish the competitiveness of Russian energy exports [14]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the global market is undergoing a profound transformation driven by disruptive trends, with significant implications for investment strategies [1][2][3] - The acceleration of global transformation is highlighted, particularly in the context of geopolitical fragmentation and the future financial system, which are colliding intensely [1] - The article emphasizes the need for investors to reassess traditional investment paradigms due to unusual market conditions, including the changing role of U.S. Treasuries and the dollar's status as a safe haven [3][4] Group 2 - Economic laws are exerting invisible constraints on U.S. policy changes, particularly regarding debt financing and supply chain policies, suggesting a tactical preference for risk [2] - The restructuring of global supply chains is expected to lead to disruptions, with recent U.S. trade dynamics indicating that these economic laws are beginning to take effect [2] - The article raises critical investment questions regarding how to leverage the ongoing transformation and the implications of market concentration driven by AI [3][4] Group 3 - There is a growing demand for private capital driven by the disruptive trends of global transformation, although sustained high interest rates may challenge future returns in the private market [4]