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特朗普考虑“影子联储主席”,美元和美债收益率携手走低,美股期货、欧股小幅走强
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-06-26 07:56
Core Viewpoint - The market anticipates that Trump will appoint a "dovish" Federal Reserve chairman, reinforcing expectations for an early interest rate cut by the Fed, leading to declines in U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar index, while stock futures in Europe and the U.S. show slight increases [1][9]. Market Performance - U.S. stock index futures all rose over 0.2% [2]. - European stocks mostly saw slight increases, with the German DAX up 0.47%, French CAC up 0.38%, and the UK FTSE down 0.13% [3]. - The Nikkei 225 index in Japan closed up 1.6%, while the Tokyo Stock Exchange index rose 0.8%. The South Korean composite index fell 0.9% [4]. Bond and Currency Markets - U.S. Treasury yields mostly declined, with the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield down over 2 basis points [5]. - The dollar index fell approximately 0.4%, while the British pound rose about 0.5% and the euro increased by about 0.3% [6]. Commodity Prices - Spot gold rose approximately 0.3%, and spot silver increased by about 0.2% [7]. - Both U.S. crude oil and Brent crude oil prices rose about 0.3% [8]. Cryptocurrency Market - Bitcoin increased by approximately 1.4%, and Ethereum rose by about 1.8% [9]. Defense Sector - NATO leaders agreed to raise defense spending to 5% of GDP, responding to Trump's criticism of insufficient military spending, which is expected to benefit defense contractors with a significant increase in military orders. Asian defense stocks surged, with Australia's DroneShield rising over 7% and up about 200% year-to-date [10]. Asian Currency Market - Hot money is flowing into Asian markets, with Asian currencies against the dollar reaching an eight-month high, indicating potential for further appreciation. The dollar has declined over 8% this year due to uncertainties surrounding trade policies and its global standing [13].
旧病
猫笔刀· 2025-05-07 14:06
顺着昨晚的内容说吧,今天早上9点开的那个会确实发布了一系列的金融利好政策,主要有: 1、降低准备金0.5%,大概可以释放1万亿元流动性。但这个利好也就那么回事,这是2011年以来连续 第26次降低准备金,看这个次数你们就知道它对股市起不了太大作用。 这次降完大银行准备金率是9%,中小银行是6%,其实横向和其他国家比还是偏高的。发达国家准备金 率在2%左右,新兴国家在3-5%,这样一对比我们还有2-3%的操作空间。 2、下调政策利率0.1%,把逆回购利率从1.5%调到1.4%,这么做的效果是下个月的LPR下跌0.1%。 降准和降息的幅度基本都和彭博社之前的预测一致,彭博社还预测今年累计降息0.3%,累计降准1%。 3、下调公积金贷款利率0.25%,这个幅度算是比较大的,公积金的下调为之后商贷的下调留出了空 间,未来中国房贷大概率是要到3%以下的。不过和我没关系了,我去年基本把房贷都提前还了,就剩 一点零头做免税申报项。因为即便是下调后的房贷利率也有3.3%,市面上找不到比这个收益高且零风 险的产品。 想要房价彻底着陆,很重要的一个数据就是租售比和房贷利率持平,一线城市有流动性溢价可以有一点 差距,但三四五线城市 ...