Core Points - Swiss President Karin Keller-Sutter urgently traveled to Washington to negotiate with the Trump administration to reduce the recently announced 39% tariff on Swiss goods [1] - The U.S. President Trump emphasized the significant trade deficit between the U.S. and Switzerland, particularly highlighting the wealth generated by the Swiss pharmaceutical industry [1] - The Swiss government is under pressure to respond to the tariffs, with potential negotiation focuses including gold, agriculture, aircraft, pharmaceuticals, and energy [2] Trade Negotiation Challenges - Keller-Sutter and Economic Minister Guy Parmelin face political risks in making concessions, which may not effectively address Trump's criticisms regarding the trade deficit [3] - Agriculture is the only sector where Switzerland retains tariffs, and any concessions in this area could provoke backlash from farmers [3] - The trade deficit in gold is significant, with two-thirds of the deficit in the first quarter attributed to gold bar transportation [3] Strategic Recommendations - Former Swiss diplomat Thomas Borer suggested purchasing oil, weapons, and liquefied natural gas, and making concessions in agriculture while pressuring Swiss pharmaceutical companies to lower prices [4] - Switzerland is currently negotiating the purchase of 36 F-35 fighter jets from Lockheed Martin, but there are disagreements over the contract price [4] - Trade policy researcher Stefan Legge proposed creative approaches, such as symbolic gifts to Trump, to improve diplomatic relations [5]

Core Viewpoint - The market anticipates that Trump will appoint a "dovish" Federal Reserve chairman, reinforcing expectations for an early interest rate cut by the Fed, leading to declines in U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar index, while stock futures in Europe and the U.S. show slight increases [1][9]. Market Performance - U.S. stock index futures all rose over 0.2% [2]. - European stocks mostly saw slight increases, with the German DAX up 0.47%, French CAC up 0.38%, and the UK FTSE down 0.13% [3]. - The Nikkei 225 index in Japan closed up 1.6%, while the Tokyo Stock Exchange index rose 0.8%. The South Korean composite index fell 0.9% [4]. Bond and Currency Markets - U.S. Treasury yields mostly declined, with the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield down over 2 basis points [5]. - The dollar index fell approximately 0.4%, while the British pound rose about 0.5% and the euro increased by about 0.3% [6]. Commodity Prices - Spot gold rose approximately 0.3%, and spot silver increased by about 0.2% [7]. - Both U.S. crude oil and Brent crude oil prices rose about 0.3% [8]. Cryptocurrency Market - Bitcoin increased by approximately 1.4%, and Ethereum rose by about 1.8% [9]. Defense Sector - NATO leaders agreed to raise defense spending to 5% of GDP, responding to Trump's criticism of insufficient military spending, which is expected to benefit defense contractors with a significant increase in military orders. Asian defense stocks surged, with Australia's DroneShield rising over 7% and up about 200% year-to-date [10]. Asian Currency Market - Hot money is flowing into Asian markets, with Asian currencies against the dollar reaching an eight-month high, indicating potential for further appreciation. The dollar has declined over 8% this year due to uncertainties surrounding trade policies and its global standing [13].

Group 1: Economic Performance and Trends - Since the onset of the Ukraine crisis in February 2022, Western sanctions have led to a 2.1% decline in the Russian economy in 2022, but a rebound occurred in 2023 with a growth of 3.6%, and a projected growth of 4.1% in 2024 [1] - The resilience of the Russian economy is notable, with a shift towards a "wartime economy" characterized by military orders and manufacturing expansion [5][6] - The agricultural sector in Russia has seen rapid development, reflecting the state's focus on ensuring public welfare despite sanctions and war [9] Group 2: Global Context and Geopolitical Factors - The current global transformation is marked by a shift from a Western-dominated order to a multipolar world, influenced by significant changes in domestic systems and foreign strategies of major countries [2][4] - The "Trump 2.0" era is seen as a critical backdrop for understanding the global transition, with implications for Russia's economic strategies and international relations [2][5] Group 3: Challenges and Future Outlook - Despite the growth, Russia's economic transformation faces challenges such as a projected slowdown in growth post-2025, ongoing Western sanctions, declining birth rates, and a lack of skilled labor [9][14] - The impact of the U.S. tariff war, although not directly affecting Russia, could have significant indirect effects, particularly through fluctuations in oil prices, which constitute a third of Russia's budget [13][14] - The volatility of the Russian ruble poses additional challenges, as its appreciation could diminish the competitiveness of Russian energy exports [14]

Group 1 - The central bank has announced a series of financial policies, including a 0.5% reduction in reserve requirements, which is expected to release approximately 1 trillion yuan in liquidity. This marks the 26th consecutive reduction since 2011, indicating limited impact on the stock market [1] - The policy interest rate has been lowered by 0.1%, adjusting the reverse repurchase rate from 1.5% to 1.4%, which is expected to lead to a 0.1% decrease in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) next month. Bloomberg had previously predicted a total interest rate cut of 0.3% and a reserve requirement cut of 1% for the year [1] - The public housing loan interest rate has been reduced by 0.25%, creating room for future reductions in commercial loan rates, with expectations that mortgage rates in China may fall below 3% [1] - The central government plans to support the Central Huijin Investment Company to act as a stabilizing fund, potentially eliminating the need for a dedicated stabilization fund in the future [2] - Additional targeted policy loan quotas have been introduced to support sectors such as technology, consumption, elderly care, and agriculture, although these measures have limited relevance to the stock market [2] Group 2 - The A-share market experienced a trading volume of 1.46 trillion yuan, nearing the threshold of 1.5 trillion yuan, with a median market performance increase of 0.39%. The military industry sector saw significant gains, rising nearly 5% [3] - Ongoing conflicts between India and Pakistan have led to speculation about increased military orders for Chinese weapons, boosting the military sector's performance in the stock market [4] - The Chinese central bank has continued to increase its gold reserves, adding approximately 2.18 tons in April, marking the sixth consecutive month of increases [4] - Sales of the top 100 real estate companies in China have declined by 6.7% year-on-year in the first four months, despite reports of hot sales in certain markets [4]