Market Trends - The current market consensus indicates that internal reforms are needed to counter external uncertainties, which is fundamental for a sustained bull market in equities [1] - The divergence in equity structure is significant, influenced by urbanization and real estate value reassessment, traditional cyclical industry profit reversals, and ongoing technological innovation [1] Cyclical Recovery vs. Revival - The market showed mixed signals with cyclical commodities experiencing sporadic increases, such as coking coal rising by 8.8% and silver by 5.4% [1] - The real estate sector saw a 6.1% increase, while steel and construction materials rose by 4.4% and 3.3% respectively [1] Global Asset Trends - Global stock markets displayed divergence, with the Russian MOEX index down by 5.7% and Brazil's index down by 3.6% [2] - The U.S. economic uncertainties are beginning to weaken their impact on global markets, while the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict is increasing global risk premiums [2] Domestic Economic Environment - China's exports grew by 5.8% year-on-year in June, slightly above expectations, but exports to the U.S. fell by 16.1% [6] - The overall economic outlook for the second half of 2025 is uncertain, with expectations of a decline in exports and potential depreciation of the RMB [6] Policy and Investment Strategies - The cyclical recovery is influenced by supply-demand dynamics and government policies aimed at stimulating demand through supply adjustments [9] - The potential for a cyclical recovery exists, but its impact on the economy and employment is constrained by the need for long-term policy effectiveness [11] Investment Logic - The investment strategy should focus on central enterprises and state-owned assets, as the market dynamics favor those with stronger operational capabilities [12]

Group 1 - International oil prices rebounded strongly on May 8, with WTI crude oil futures rising by $1.84 to $59.91 per barrel, a 3.17% increase, and Brent crude oil futures increasing by $1.72 to $62.84 per barrel, a 2.81% rise, due to reduced market concerns over trade tensions [1] - The market reacted positively to the announcement of a new trade agreement between the U.S. and the U.K., which includes partial tariff reductions and expanded market access, although many details remain to be finalized [1] - Oil prices are still largely driven by news events, with analysts noting that while there is some optimism regarding reduced tariff tensions, attention must be paid to OPEC+'s plans to accelerate the exit from voluntary production cuts after June [1] Group 2 - Investment banks are continuing to lower their oil price forecasts, with Citigroup analysts reducing their three-month Brent crude oil price prediction from $60 per barrel to $55 per barrel, while maintaining a $60 per barrel forecast for the year [2] - Analysts at Citigroup indicated that if a nuclear agreement is reached between the U.S. and Iran, increased supply could push Brent crude oil prices down to $50 per barrel, whereas failure to reach an agreement could see prices rise above $70 per barrel [2]