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金融工程周报:资金保持流入,市场回归理性-20250917
Shanghai Securities· 2025-09-17 12:48
- The A-share industry rotation model is constructed using six factors: capital, valuation, sentiment, momentum, overbought/oversold, and profitability[4][19] - The capital factor is based on the net inflow rate of industry funds, valuation is based on the industry's valuation percentile over the past year, sentiment is based on the proportion of rising constituent stocks, momentum uses the MACD indicator, overbought/oversold uses the RSI indicator, and profitability uses the consensus forecast EPS percentile over the past year[19] - The industry rotation model results show that steel, building materials, and computers have high comprehensive scores, while petroleum and petrochemicals, power equipment, and banks have low scores[4][20] - The consensus stock selection model is based on momentum and price factors, combined with high-frequency capital flow trends and stock price similarity[5][22] - The consensus stock selection model results for this period include stocks such as Shenghong Technology, Xiechuang Data, and Industrial Fulian[5][23] Model Backtest Results - A-share industry rotation model, steel industry score: 10, building materials industry score: 6, computer industry score: 5[21] - Consensus stock selection model, selected stocks: Shenghong Technology, Xiechuang Data, Industrial Fulian, etc.[23]
金融工程周报:主力资金流入汽车行业,情绪高涨
Shanghai Securities· 2025-05-09 13:25
Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment rating for the automotive industry, highlighting it as one of the sectors with significant net inflows of capital [2][9]. Core Insights - The automotive sector has seen a net inflow of 27.05 billion in the past 5 days, making it the top industry for capital inflow [9]. - The report utilizes a model that assesses industries based on six factors: capital, valuation, sentiment, momentum, overbought/oversold conditions, and earnings, with the automotive sector scoring high in these evaluations [13][14]. - The consensus stock selection model identified stocks such as Baiyang Co., Zhongchong Co., and Hunan Silver as top picks based on high-frequency capital flow and price movement similarity [16][17]. Industry Capital Inflow Statistics - In the past 5 days, the automotive industry led with a net inflow of 27.05 billion, followed by home appliances with 8.44 billion and machinery equipment with 5.26 billion [9]. - Over the past 30 days, the automotive sector experienced a net outflow of 446.97 billion, indicating a contrasting trend compared to the recent 5-day performance [10][12]. A-Share Industry Rotation Model - The A-share industry rotation model ranks the automotive sector among the top performers, alongside non-bank financials and communications, based on a composite score derived from the six factors [14][15]. - The automotive sector received a high score in capital and valuation, indicating strong investor interest and favorable market conditions [15]. Consensus Stock Selection - The consensus stock selection model highlighted industries such as feed, precious metals, and animal health II as high-performing sectors, with specific stocks selected based on their capital flow and price movement [16][17].
金融工程周报:主力资金流入汽车行业,情绪高涨-20250509
Shanghai Securities· 2025-05-09 12:20
主力资金流入汽车行业,情绪高涨 ——金融工程周报 [◼Table_Summary] 主要观点 A 股行业轮动模型: 行业主力资金统计: 模型从资金、估值、情绪、动量、超买超卖和盈利,共 6 个因子 共同构建打分体系,用以研判行业综合评分。 模型对过去一段时间每日交易单中大于等于 10 万股或者金额大 于等于 20 万元的成交金额的交易单作为主力资金流动进行统计。 基于该模型,非银金融、通信、汽车等综合评分较高,建筑材 料、社会服务、钢铁等得分较低。 共识度选股模型: ➢ 行业 5 日主力资金净流入前五:汽车、家用电器、机械设备、轻 工制造、综合。 上述行业净流入靠前的个股有:南方精工、隆盛科技、江淮汽 车、美的集团、三花智控等 ➢ 行业 30 日主力资金净流入前五:综合、美容护理、建筑材料、轻 工制造、煤炭 上述行业净流入靠前的个股有:漳州发展、天宸股份、亚泰集 团、青松股份、拉芳家化等 基于动量,价格等因子,结合高频资金流走势与股票价格走势相 似度,模型本期的输出结果为:百洋股份、中宠股份、湖南白银等个 股 [Table_RiskWarning] ◼ 风险提示 本文投资建议仅代表数理模型的计算结果,不代表未 ...