Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government bond market experienced a notable decline, with the 30-year government bond futures dropping by 0.38%, and the yield rising to 1.9680%, the highest since April, indicating ongoing upward pressure on interest rates and reduced demand for long-term bonds [1] Market Analysis - The 30-year government bond ETF (博时, 511130) opened lower and fell by 38 basis points during the day, with a trading volume exceeding 2 billion yuan and a turnover rate over 13%, reflecting active trading [1] - Recent policies in the real estate sector, such as the cancellation of purchase restrictions outside the Fifth Ring in Beijing, are expected to be followed by Shanghai and Shenzhen, which may open up market expectations despite limited real impact [2][3] - The ongoing internal demand policies may indicate increasing external pressures, particularly in the context of U.S.-China relations, with potential tariff increases looming [2][3] Investment Strategy - The current market environment shows a divergence in opinions among institutions, with some suggesting that the 30-year government bonds above 1.95% present trading value, and recommending gradual accumulation [1][3] - The liquidity remains loose, with the central bank maintaining a supportive stance, although there may be expectations of increased pressure in September [3] - The equity market is showing signs of bubble formation, with high margin trading levels, while the bond market is perceived as relatively safe during this divergence phase [3] ETF Information - The 30-year government bond ETF (博时, 511130) was established in March 2024 and is one of only two on-market ultra-long-term bond ETFs, tracking the "Shanghai 30-Year Government Bond Index" [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the recent dovish trade signals from the Trump administration are reshaping the dollar pricing logic, leading to a decline in the dollar index and a shift in risk asset preferences [1][3] - The dollar index has dropped to 99.65, down 0.25% from the opening price of 99.90, indicating a dual battle of "policy expectation reversal" and "technical resistance" [1] - The Trump administration's shift in attitude towards the Federal Reserve, moving from criticism to a more cooperative stance, is seen as reducing systemic risks related to political interference in monetary policy [3] Group 2 - Analysts note that the relationship between the White House and the Federal Reserve is improving, which is strengthening the Fed's policy independence and raising market expectations for maintaining high interest rates for a longer period [3] - CME interest rate futures indicate that traders have reduced their bets on the number of rate cuts by the Fed this year from 2 times to 1.5 times, suggesting a revaluation of the dollar's interest rate advantage [3] - The dollar index is at a critical juncture; if it can break through the 100.00 level and stabilize above the downward trend line, it could open an upward channel towards the 101.50-102.00 range [3]