首先，特朗普称或以购买俄罗斯石油为由对中国征收额外关税，而近期美国已通过类似缘由对印度额外 加征25%关税。其次，美俄元首将于下周会面，美国或通过拉动俄罗斯进而对中方施压。总体来看，中 美此前签订的关税互惠协议续期概率较大，但尽管如此，自欧盟与日本接受不平等的补充条款后，美方 野心或有所扩大，中美关系在短期内可能很难出现进一步回暖。地产方面，从香港经验就可以看出，香 港全面放开限购后，房价并没有止跌回稳，香港房价真正的止跌回稳是在房贷利率大幅下调至租金回报 率以下，因此对放开限购的实质影响，不应给予过高的期待。 北京放开的信号意义大于实质，上海、深圳的跟进预期提升，同时配合近期的反内卷政策，市场想象空 间在打开。不过预期和现实的差距较大。通过放松限购、降低首付方式刺激地产需求的实质作用有限， 居民高杠杆、收入预期弱的现实并未改变，居民继续加杠杆的能力有限，购房意愿也在下降——"对于 有二胎的人，放开三胎才有效果"。地产的弱现实不影博弈预期，因此权益的情绪上涨对债市再次形成 扰动，债券的性价比再次提升。30年国债盘中上行至1.94%以上，我们认为已经进入配置区间，建议梯 度建仓配置。 相关ETF方面，30年国债 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the recent dovish trade signals from the Trump administration are reshaping the dollar pricing logic, leading to a decline in the dollar index and a shift in risk asset preferences [1][3] - The dollar index has dropped to 99.65, down 0.25% from the opening price of 99.90, indicating a dual battle of "policy expectation reversal" and "technical resistance" [1] - The Trump administration's shift in attitude towards the Federal Reserve, moving from criticism to a more cooperative stance, is seen as reducing systemic risks related to political interference in monetary policy [3] Group 2 - Analysts note that the relationship between the White House and the Federal Reserve is improving, which is strengthening the Fed's policy independence and raising market expectations for maintaining high interest rates for a longer period [3] - CME interest rate futures indicate that traders have reduced their bets on the number of rate cuts by the Fed this year from 2 times to 1.5 times, suggesting a revaluation of the dollar's interest rate advantage [3] - The dollar index is at a critical juncture; if it can break through the 100.00 level and stabilize above the downward trend line, it could open an upward channel towards the 101.50-102.00 range [3]