当前，国债发行进入密集期。11月24日，财政部招标发行970亿元记账式附息国债和600亿元记账式贴现国债。11月26日，还有2只短期国债将发行。专家表 示，国债密集发行是积极财政政策持续发力的重要体现。后续积极财政政策取向料延续，应用好用足特别国债、专项债等工具，加强国债资金监管考核，确 保政策效能充分释放，护航稳增长。 展望后市，德邦证券认为，预计债市短期震荡与长期宽松并存。央行三季度货币政策执行报告明确"实施好适度宽松的货币政策"，国债买卖操作常态化或为 长端利率提供"安全垫"；年末银行理财"冲规模"、保险资金"资产荒"背景下，利率债的配置价值或将有所提升。我们认为当前债市核心逻辑仍为"政策托底 +配置驱动"，短期震荡与长期宽松并存。 截至2025年11月24日 11:17，30年国债ETF博时(511130)上涨0.11%，最新价报107.4元。拉长时间看，截至2025年11月21日，30年国债ETF博时近1年累计上涨 3.34%。 流动性方面，30年国债ETF博时盘中换手8.06%，成交15.28亿元。拉长时间看，截至11月21日，30年国债ETF博时近1月日均成交33.95亿元。 资金面上，央行今日 ...

截至2025年10月31日 13:13，30年国债ETF博时(511130)上涨0.30%，最新价报107.83元。拉长时间看，截至2025年10月30日，30年国债ETF博时近1周累计上 涨0.60%。 流动性方面，30年国债ETF博时盘中换手13.25%，成交24.33亿元，市场交投活跃。拉长时间看，截至10月30日，30年国债ETF博时近1周日均成交35.61亿 元。 资金流入方面，30年国债ETF博时最新资金净流入1.95亿元。拉长时间看，近5个交易日内有4日资金净流入，合计"吸金"6.04亿元，日均净流入达1.21亿元。 30年国债ETF博时紧密跟踪上证30年期国债指数，上证30年期国债指数从上海证券交易所上市的国债中，选取符合中国金融期货交易所30年期国债期货近月 合约可交割条件的债券作为指数样本，以反映沪市相应期限国债的整体表现。 以上产品风险等级为：中低 （此为管理人评级，具体销售以各代销机构评级为准） 风险提示：基金不同于银行储蓄和债券等固定收益预期的金融工具，不同类型的基金风险收益情况不同，投资人既可能分享基金投资所产生的收益，也可能 承担基金投资所带来的损失。基金的过往业绩并不预示其未来 ...

截至2025年10月14日 10:52，30年国债ETF博时(511130)下跌0.34%，最新报价105.39元。拉长时间看，截至2025年10月13日，30年国债ETF博时近1年累计上 涨2.45%。 流动性方面，30年国债ETF博时盘中换手8.37%，成交15.09亿元。拉长时间看，截至10月13日，30年国债ETF博时近1月日均成交35.89亿元。 消息面上，根据财政部日前公布的2025年第四季度国债发行有关安排，10月14日发行今年最后一期、规模为400亿元的20年期超长期特别国债。至此，2025 年预算安排的1.3万亿元超长期特别国债发行计划圆满收官。截至三季度末，我国年内已累计发行超长期特别国债12300亿元。 据报道，10月13日，10年、30年国债收益率普遍跳空上行开盘，其中活跃券上行幅度可达到1.5-2.0bp。随后，股市进入短暂的抛压释放阶段，债市相应迎来 喘息窗口，中长端利率纷纷向前收靠拢。午后，权益资产的强势反弹再次触发了"股债跷跷板"效应，多头信心逐步瓦解，中长久期收益率开始加速上行，尾 盘10年、30年国债活跃券收益率分别收于1.76%、2.11%，较前一日上行1.8bp、3.0 ...

Core Viewpoint - The 30-year government bond ETF from Bosera (511130) has surpassed 20 billion yuan in scale, marking it as a significant product among Bosera's bond ETFs and highlighting its investment value in a low-interest-rate environment [1][3][19] Investment Value - The core value of the 30-year government bond ETF lies in its approximately 20-year duration, which provides a "leverage" effect, making it a vital investment tool [3][5] - The ETF is one of only two 30-year government bond ETFs available in the market, indicating its relative scarcity [4] Configuration Value - In a declining interest rate environment, the long duration of the 30-year government bond offers strong configuration value. Historical data shows that an investment in the 30-year bond since 2012 would yield an average annualized return of 6.69% over three years, compared to 5.09% for a similar duration of 7-10 year government bonds [6][9] Trading Value - The ETF's longer duration results in higher volatility, enhancing its trading value. For instance, the modified duration of the 30-year bond index is 19.65 years, significantly higher than the 7.5 years for the 7-10 year government bond index, providing advantages in capital gains during trading [11][12] Hedging Value - The long duration of the 30-year government bond ETF allows it to hedge against equity market volatility, particularly in a financial disintermediation context. Historical data indicates that in 137 months since 2013, 61.31% showed a "see-saw" effect between stocks and bonds [13] Trading Strategies - The ETF offers three trading strategies: 1. **Arbitrage**: Investors can estimate the ETF's premium/discount levels and utilize the ETF's redemption and trading mechanisms for arbitrage [14] 2. **Futures and Spot Arbitrage**: Investors can compare futures and spot prices, using the ETF as a substitute for spot trading [15] 3. **Grid Trading Strategy**: In a fluctuating market, investors can set parameters to adjust positions, potentially yielding good returns [16] Trading Convenience - The 30-year government bond ETF allows for easy trading through both primary and secondary markets. Investors can subscribe using physical or cash methods, with immediate access to ETF shares [17][18] Future Outlook - Bosera Fund aims to continue innovating and expanding its product offerings in the index product field, providing diverse investment options for investors [20][21]

Core Insights - The 30-year government bond ETF from Bosera has surpassed 20 billion yuan in scale, marking it as a significant product alongside other major bond ETFs from the company [1] - The ETF's core value lies in its approximately 20-year duration, which provides leverage benefits and makes it a rare product in the current market [2][4] - The ETF offers three main investment values: allocation value, trading value, and hedging value, particularly in a low-interest-rate environment [2][6] Allocation Value - In a downward interest rate trend, the long duration of the 30-year government bond ETF provides strong allocation value, with an average annualized return of 6.69% for a three-year holding period since 2012, compared to 5.09% for 7-10 year government bonds [2][4] Trading Value - The ETF has a higher trading value due to its longer duration and greater volatility compared to 7-10 year government bonds, with a modified duration of 19.65 years versus 7.50 years for the latter [6] - Historical data shows that during low volatility phases, the trading value of the 30-year government bond ETF becomes more pronounced [6] Hedging Value - The long duration of the ETF allows it to hedge against equity market fluctuations, with a significant occurrence of the "stock-bond seesaw" effect noted in 61.31% of the months analyzed since 2013 [6] - The ETF supports various trading strategies, including arbitrage and grid strategies, enhancing its appeal in a volatile market [6][7] Trading Mechanism - The ETF can be traded conveniently through both primary and secondary markets, with options for physical or cash subscriptions [7] - The trading efficiency is comparable to stocks, allowing for T+0 transactions, which lowers the entry barrier for investors [7] Future Outlook - Bosera aims to continue innovating and expanding its product offerings in the index product space, focusing on providing diverse investment options for investors [9]

Group 1 - The A-share market saw all three major indices rise in early trading, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.16% at 3849.76 points, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.93%, and the ChiNext Index up 2.34%, reaching a new high since February 2022 [1] - The trading volume in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets reached 18,752 billion yuan, an increase of 670 billion yuan compared to the previous day, with over 2,000 stocks rising across the market [1] - The 30-year government bond ETF (511130) experienced fluctuations, rising by 18 basis points during the day, with a trading volume exceeding 2.1 billion yuan and a turnover rate of over 11%, indicating active trading [1] Group 2 - Recent adjustments in government bond yields began after the close of government bond futures yesterday and continued today, suggesting that fixed-income funds are optimistic about equities and are waiting to increase their positions [1] - The sentiment in the equity market has shown a strong recovery, with a resurgence in bullish sentiment expected to continue in the short term following a brief adjustment period before September 3 [1] Group 3 - The 10-year government bond yield is currently fluctuating between 1.75% and 1.80%, while the 30-year yield is between 1.98% and 2.05%, indicating a potential key resistance level at 1.8% [3] - The 30-year government bond ETF (511130), established in March 2024, is one of only two long-duration bond ETFs in the market, tracking the "Shanghai Stock Exchange 30-Year Government Bond Index" [3] - The index reflects the overall performance of 30-year government bonds listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, with a duration of approximately 21 years, making it highly sensitive to interest rate changes [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the market is experiencing increased trading volume, with a total expected turnover of approximately 2.8 trillion yuan for the day, reflecting a rise of 401 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1] - The bond futures market is showing weakness, with the 30-year main contract down by 0.2% to 116.880 points, and other maturities also experiencing slight declines [1] - The 30-year bond ETF, Bosera (511130), is actively traded with a turnover exceeding 2 billion yuan and a net inflow of 890 million yuan over the past five days, highlighting its market attention [1] Group 2 - There is a high expectation for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, which aligns with the ongoing trend of global liquidity easing [2] - The Bosera 30-year bond ETF, established in March 2024, tracks the "Shanghai 30-Year Government Bond Index" and is one of the few long-duration bond ETFs available, making it sensitive to interest rate changes [2] - The central bank's supportive stance remains unchanged despite seasonal funding pressures, indicating a potential for market stabilization and a rebalancing of liquidity between equity and bond markets [1][2]

Group 1 - A-shares continue to perform strongly with a half-day trading volume exceeding 2 trillion yuan, an increase of 571.3 billion yuan compared to the previous day, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.86% and the ChiNext Index up 2.22%, reaching a three-year high [1] - There is a strong willingness for incremental capital to enter the market, driven by substantial household savings waiting to be invested and a margin financing balance remaining above 2 trillion yuan; additionally, foreign capital has begun to flow into A-shares for the first time since October of last year [1] - The bond futures market has seen significant increases, with the 30-year main contract rising by 0.8%, currently at 116.830 points, and the 10-year and 5-year contracts also showing gains [1] Group 2 - Since 2010, only fundamentally driven stock bull markets have led to bear markets in bonds, while fund-driven bull markets have not; the major stock bull markets since 2010 include a fund-driven bull market from Q4 2014 to Q1 2015, and a recovery-driven bull market in 2017 and 2020 [2] - The current stock market rally is expected to influence bond market investor expectations, but the bond market's performance will ultimately depend on economic fundamentals, with a potential decoupling from stock market trends [2] - The bond market's largest allocation force, bank proprietary investments, has seen a significant increase, with bank holdings of bonds reaching 99 trillion yuan, accounting for 52% of the total bond market [3] Group 3 - Economic downward pressure may increase in the second half of the year, with consumer subsidies potentially overstretching demand in the home appliance sector and investment growth declining significantly [4] - The central bank may consider restarting government bond purchases to stabilize issuance costs and prevent risks in the bond market, especially as government bond yields have recently risen [4] - Banks are expected to increase their bond allocations due to declining funding costs and weak credit demand, with the overall cost of interest-bearing liabilities for A-share listed banks projected to drop below 1.7% in Q4 2025 [5] Group 4 - The 30-year government bond ETF, launched in March 2024, is one of only two long-duration bond ETFs in the market, tracking the Shanghai Stock Exchange 30-year government bond index, which reflects the overall performance of corresponding maturity government bonds [6]

Core Insights - The bond ETF market is thriving in a low-interest-rate environment, with the total scale of bond ETFs surpassing 500 billion yuan as of August 21, 2025, driven by investor preference for lower volatility [1] - Bosera Fund has successfully launched five bond ETFs, with a total scale exceeding 100 billion yuan for several products, including a convertible bond ETF that has surpassed 57 billion yuan [1][2] - The performance of Bosera's bond ETFs has been strong, with the convertible bond ETF achieving a cumulative return of 24.02% since inception, outperforming various benchmarks [1][2][3] Bosera Bond ETF Overview - Bosera Fund's bond ETF lineup includes five products: Convertible Bond ETF (511380), 30-Year Government Bond ETF (511130), Credit Bond ETF (159396), Sci-Tech Bond ETF (551000), and National Development Bank ETF (159650) [1][2] - The 30-Year Government Bond ETF has seen significant growth, with its scale increasing from 29.87 billion yuan at the beginning of the year to over 170 billion yuan, marking a growth rate of over 450% [2] - The Sci-Tech Bond ETF focuses on sectors like chips and new energy, achieving a yield of 14.48% since inception, significantly higher than major indices [2] Performance Metrics - The Credit Bond ETF has also performed well, with a scale exceeding 114 billion yuan and a yield of 12.01% since inception, outperforming major indices [2] - The National Development Bank ETF has shown a cumulative return of over 36.34% over the past decade, outperforming the comprehensive bond index [3] - Bosera's bond ETFs are characterized by low credit risk and good liquidity, making them attractive to investors seeking stable returns [3] Market Positioning - Bosera Fund has established a comprehensive product line in the bond ETF space, catering to diverse investor needs and preferences [5] - The bond ETFs offer advantages such as low management fees (0.15% per year) and quick trading capabilities (T+0), enhancing their appeal to investors [5] - The recent inclusion of the Credit Bond ETF and Sci-Tech Bond ETF in the general pledge-style repurchase market is expected to further enhance their liquidity and marketability [2]

Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index broke through the 3800-point mark in the afternoon, with an increase of 0.8%, while the Sci-Tech Innovation 50 surged by 5.25%, reaching a nearly three-and-a-half-year high [1] - The ChiNext Index also saw a significant rise of 2.56%, with the semiconductor industry chain experiencing explosive growth, highlighted by Cambrian's 18% increase to a new high [1] Economic Indicators - Recent data from the National Bureau of Statistics indicates that while key economic indicators such as retail sales, fixed asset investment, and industrial value-added growth rates have slowed compared to June, there are still positive aspects within the economic structure [2] - The macro policy direction emphasizes "sustained efforts and timely support," with various ministries, including the National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Finance, and People's Bank of China, intensifying economic work for the second half of the year [2] Monetary Policy - On August 21, the central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation with a fixed rate, injecting 253 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.40%, with the same amount being bid and awarded [2] - Wind data shows that 128.7 billion yuan in reverse repos matured on the same day, resulting in a net injection of 124.3 billion yuan [3] Bond Market - The bond futures market on August 21 exhibited characteristics of "strong long-end and stable short-end," with significant gains in the 30-year contract [4] - The price spread between near-term and long-term contracts is widening, indicating an increased market expectation for a decline in long-term interest rates [4] - The 30-year bond ETF, launched in March 2024, is one of only two on-market ultra-long-term bond ETFs, tracking the "Shanghai 30-Year Treasury Index," which reflects the overall performance of corresponding maturity government bonds [4]