首先，特朗普称或以购买俄罗斯石油为由对中国征收额外关税，而近期美国已通过类似缘由对印度额外 加征25%关税。其次，美俄元首将于下周会面，美国或通过拉动俄罗斯进而对中方施压。总体来看，中 美此前签订的关税互惠协议续期概率较大，但尽管如此，自欧盟与日本接受不平等的补充条款后，美方 野心或有所扩大，中美关系在短期内可能很难出现进一步回暖。地产方面，从香港经验就可以看出，香 港全面放开限购后，房价并没有止跌回稳，香港房价真正的止跌回稳是在房贷利率大幅下调至租金回报 率以下，因此对放开限购的实质影响，不应给予过高的期待。 北京放开的信号意义大于实质，上海、深圳的跟进预期提升，同时配合近期的反内卷政策，市场想象空 间在打开。不过预期和现实的差距较大。通过放松限购、降低首付方式刺激地产需求的实质作用有限， 居民高杠杆、收入预期弱的现实并未改变，居民继续加杠杆的能力有限，购房意愿也在下降——"对于 有二胎的人，放开三胎才有效果"。地产的弱现实不影博弈预期，因此权益的情绪上涨对债市再次形成 扰动，债券的性价比再次提升。30年国债盘中上行至1.94%以上，我们认为已经进入配置区间，建议梯 度建仓配置。 相关ETF方面，30年国债 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.12%, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext indices fell by 0.13% and 0.52% respectively, and the North China 50 Index rose by 0.43% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets reached 1.2062 trillion yuan, an increase of 132.7 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1] Bond Market Dynamics - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 160.7 billion yuan at a stable interest rate of 1.40% [1] - The yields on major bonds showed slight fluctuations, with the 10-year government bond yield decreasing by 0.5 basis points to 1.699%, while the 10-year policy bank bond yield increased by 0.1 basis points to 1.796% [1] - The bond market has experienced significant volatility, with the 10-year government bond yield rising from a low of 1.64% in early July to a peak of 1.75% at the end of July before retreating [1] Market Sentiment and Predictions - Analysts suggest that despite a hot equity market, the underlying economic fundamentals remain weak, leading to a cautious outlook for the bond market, which is expected to fluctuate within a range of 1.6% to 1.8% for the 10-year government bond yield [2] - The sentiment in the market is more stable compared to the redemption environment of 2022, with institutional views leaning towards a bullish stance [2] - Huaxi Securities indicates that opportunities for a bond bull market are emerging, recommending extending duration positions [3] Strategic Insights - Analysts recommend maintaining a neutral to slightly high duration strategy in the bond market, as recent policy expectations have cooled and economic indicators suggest a weak reality [4] - The current market risk appetite has increased, limiting the potential for significant interest rate declines, while also constraining the upward movement of rates due to the unstable economic fundamentals [4] - The 30-year government bond ETF, launched in March 2024, is highlighted as a significant investment vehicle, tracking the performance of the 30-year government bond index [5]

国债期货多数低开，30年期主力合约跌0.04%，10年期主力合约跌0.01%，5年期主力合约跌0.01%，2年 期主力合约持平。 30年国债ETF博时（511130）于2024年3月成立，是市场上仅有的两只场内超长久期债券ETF基金之一， 跟踪指数为"上证30年期国债指数"，指数代码为"950175.CSI"。根据指数编制方案，上证30年期国债指 数从上海证券交易所上市的债券中，选取符合中国金融期货交易所30年期国债期货近月合约可交割条件 的国债作为指数样本，以反映沪市相应期限国债的整体表现，一般季度进行调整。久期约21年，对利率 变动高度敏感，值得投资者关注。 风险提示：基金有风险，投资需谨慎。基金不同于银行储蓄和债券等固定收益预期的金融工具，不同类 型的基金风险收益情况不同，投资人既可能分享基金投资所产生的收益，也可能承担基金投资所带来的 损失。基金管理人承诺以诚实信用、勤勉尽责的原则管理和运用基金资产，但不保证本基金一定盈利， 也不保证收益，基金净值存在波动风险，基金管理人管理的其他基金业绩不构成对本基金业绩表现的保 证，基金的过往业绩并不预示其未来表现。投资者应认真阅读《基金合同》、《招募说明书》及《 ...

Market Overview - The three major A-share indices collectively rose in the morning session, with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.48%, the Shenzhen Component Index up by 0.65%, and the ChiNext Index up by 0.72% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets reached 1.133 trillion yuan, a decrease of 26.5 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1] - Over 3,900 stocks in the market experienced an increase [1] Bond Market Dynamics - Government bond futures collectively declined at midday, with the 30-year main contract down by 0.59%, the 10-year main contract down by 0.19%, the 5-year main contract down by 0.17%, and the 2-year main contract down by 0.07% [1] - The 30-year government bond ETF (Boshi 511130) experienced fluctuations, dropping by 49 basis points, with a trading volume exceeding 2.5 billion yuan and a turnover rate over 21% [1] - The ETF has seen a net inflow of 3.082 billion yuan over the past five days, indicating strong market interest [1] Economic Context - The current market interest rates have risen close to policy rates, suggesting limited further upward movement for government bond futures [2] - There remains a lack of effective domestic demand, necessitating a relatively accommodative monetary environment in the second half of the year to support the economy, with expectations for potential interest rate cuts [2] - Short-term interest rate cuts are unlikely, as the July Loan Prime Rate (LPR) remained unchanged, indicating limited upward potential for government bond futures in the near term [2] Investment Sentiment - The overall liquidity in the market is relaxed, supported by the central bank's 1.4 trillion yuan reverse repurchase operations, leading to a decline in government bond yields [2] - The bond market is expected to maintain a volatile pattern in the short term, while the medium to long-term outlook remains bullish due to weak economic recovery and supportive policies [2] - The strong performance of the stock market has increased risk appetite, which may exert pressure on the bond market [2] ETF Specifics - The 30-year government bond ETF (Boshi 511130) was established in March 2024 and is one of only two long-duration bond ETFs in the market, tracking the "Shanghai Stock Exchange 30-Year Government Bond Index" [3] - The index reflects the overall performance of 30-year government bonds listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, with a duration of approximately 21 years, making it highly sensitive to interest rate changes [3]

Market Overview - The equity market experienced fluctuations with a significant decrease in trading volume, indicating a growing wait-and-see sentiment [1] - The bond market showed a weak trend with government bond yields generally rising by 0-1 basis points [1] Bond Market Dynamics - The 30-year government bond futures rose by 0.30%, while the 10-year and 5-year contracts increased by 0.11% and 0.08% respectively [1] - The 30-year government bond ETF (博时511130) saw a significant inflow of funds, with a net inflow of 1.63 billion and a total scale surpassing 9 billion [1][5] Market Adjustments - Recent adjustments in the bond market are attributed to the market digesting high risk preferences, with daily adjustments exceeding 1 basis point [1] - Despite frequent negative news, key variables influencing the bond market, such as fundamentals and central bank attitudes, have not changed [1] Liquidity and Interest Rates - The liquidity situation is tightening, with the central bank's reverse repo balance decreasing significantly, indicating a net withdrawal of funds [2] - The upcoming tax payment period is expected to exert further pressure on liquidity, with a projected shortfall of approximately 2.3 trillion [2][4] Future Outlook - The bond market may recover quickly if the central bank maintains a supportive stance towards liquidity, presenting opportunities for investors [3][5] - The 30-year government bond ETF is highlighted as a key investment focus due to its strong performance and significant inflows, reflecting investor confidence in long-term bonds [5]

Market Overview - The three major A-share indices showed mixed performance in the morning session, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.36% to surpass 3500 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.02%, and the ChiNext Index fell by 0.3% [1] - The total market turnover for the half-day was 934.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 34.7 billion yuan compared to the previous day, with over 3100 stocks declining [1] Bond Market Insights - The 30-year government bond ETF, Boshi (511130), opened lower and fell by 24 basis points during the session, with a trading volume of nearly 2.5 billion yuan and a turnover rate exceeding 30%. The ETF has seen a net inflow of 274 million yuan over the past five days [1][2] - Huatai Futures indicated that the central bank's continuous net injection has maintained a loose market liquidity, leading to a widening yield spread, reflecting a certain expectation for short-term liquidity easing [2] - The 30-year government bond ETF, established in March 2024, is one of only two long-duration bond ETFs in the market, tracking the "Shanghai Stock Exchange 30-Year Government Bond Index" [2] Economic Indicators - The National Bureau of Statistics reported June inflation data, with the CPI rising by 0.1% year-on-year and the PPI declining by 3.6%, indicating weak overall performance that is unfavorable for endogenous growth in domestic demand [1] - Baocheng Futures noted that the current weak inflation performance and insufficient endogenous growth momentum in domestic demand, combined with external demand being susceptible to tariff impacts, suggest a need for a relatively loose monetary environment in the second half of the year to support demand and stabilize expectations [1]

Market Overview - Major A-share indices weakened, with the ChiNext Index down over 1%, the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.2%, and the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.59%. Nearly 2,900 stocks in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets declined [1] - Government bond futures mostly opened higher, with the 30-year main contract up 0.04%, the 10-year main contract up 0.01%, the 5-year main contract up 0.02%, and the 2-year main contract flat [1] Bond Market Insights - The 30-year government bond ETF (Boshi 511130) opened high and fluctuated throughout the day, with a slight increase of 3 basis points and a trading volume of nearly 600 million yuan, indicating active trading [1] - Overnight SHIBOR, although showing a small decrease, remains at a low level around 1.3000%, below last year's peak, suggesting a shift in institutional strategies as the previous heavy bets on low interest rates are being corrected [1] - Beijing Shichuang Futures noted that since mid-April 2025, government bond futures have been lackluster, with low volatility and limited opportunities for both bulls and bears, but a potential upward space is expected in Q3 [1] Economic Context - The average loan interest rate in Q1 2025 remains high at 3.75%, with the actual interest rate estimated at 4.52%, which is considered restrictive for the economy, especially in a deflationary context [2] - Market expectations for interest rate cuts have been tempered, with only a 10 basis point cut occurring on May 7, despite earlier predictions of a 30-40 basis point reduction [2] - Factors influencing the slow pace of rate cuts include stable economic conditions, minimal tariff impacts, ongoing fiscal policy effects, and external pressures from the US Federal Reserve's delayed rate cuts [2] Future Outlook - There is an expectation that the Federal Reserve may initiate rate cuts in Q3, which could lead to a more aggressive domestic monetary policy response, potentially benefiting government bond futures [3] - The Boshi 30-year government bond ETF, established in March 2024, tracks the "Shanghai 30-Year Government Bond Index" and is sensitive to interest rate changes, making it a noteworthy investment option [3]

Market Overview - The A-share market opened with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.02%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.26% and the ChiNext Index increased by 0.4% [1] - The 30-year government bond futures opened with a decline of 0.15%, the 10-year futures down 0.04%, the 5-year down 0.03%, and the 2-year futures unchanged [1] ETF Performance - The 30-year government bond ETF, Bosera (511130), experienced fluctuations, with an intraday drop of 35 basis points and a trading volume exceeding 700 million yuan, indicating active trading [1] Monetary Policy Insights - Recent institutional reports suggest that July typically sees "spontaneous" easing in the market, with government bonds and credit demand unlikely to create liquidity "shocks" [1] - The central bank's assessment of the economy is not yet urgent but is beginning to focus on downward risks, particularly in manufacturing due to tariff disruptions [1] - Historical data indicates that when the manufacturing PMI falls into contraction for three consecutive months, liquidity tends to ease, potentially triggering adjustments in monetary policy [1] Liquidity Environment - The liquidity environment in June reached its loosest state of the year, with the average funding rate dropping to approximately 1.56%, a new low for the year [2] - The central bank has increased its funding injections, particularly in medium to long-term funds, to counterbalance the pressures from government bond supply and maturing certificates of deposit [2] - In June, government bond issuance exceeded 2.7 trillion yuan, while the maturity scale of interbank certificates of deposit surpassed 4 trillion yuan [2] Government Bond ETF Details - The 30-year government bond ETF Bosera (511130) was established in March 2024 and is one of only two on-market ultra-long-term bond ETFs, tracking the "Shanghai Stock Exchange 30-Year Government Bond Index" [3] - The index reflects the overall performance of 30-year government bonds listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, with a duration of approximately 21 years, making it highly sensitive to interest rate changes [3]

Market Overview - A-shares major indices collectively rose in early trading on June 9, 2025, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.23%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.62%, and the ChiNext Index up 1.22% [1] - The total market turnover reached 838.6 billion yuan, an increase of 75.5 billion yuan compared to the previous day, with nearly 3,700 stocks rising [1] Bond Market Dynamics - Most government bond futures rose at midday, with the 30-year main contract up 0.32%, the 10-year main contract up 0.09%, and the 5-year main contract up 0.02% [1] - The 30-year government bond ETF from Bosera (511130) saw significant trading activity, with a rise of 43 basis points and a turnover exceeding 1.3 billion yuan, indicating strong market interest [1] Central Bank Actions - On June 5, the central bank unexpectedly adjusted the format of its reverse repurchase announcements, shifting to a bidding format and conducting a 1 trillion yuan, 3-month reverse repo operation [2] - This change aims to enhance transparency in open market operations and alleviate market concerns regarding cross-quarter liquidity pressures [2] Institutional Behavior - Major banks have been actively purchasing short-term bonds in the secondary market, which may signal a potential restart of bond buying by the central bank [3] - April insurance premium data showed significant improvement in long-term insurance income, which could lead to increased allocation in long-duration bonds [3] Future Market Expectations - The upcoming week may see market fluctuations based on the results of new US-China negotiations, with two potential outcomes: a positive result leading to a reduction in tariffs, or a neutral outcome with limited new information [3] - Short-term interest rates are expected to rise, while long-term rates may break out of their narrow trading range, suggesting opportunities for excess returns in long-duration bonds [4] ETF Specifics - The Bosera 30-year government bond ETF, established in March 2024, is one of only two on-market ultra-long duration bond ETFs, tracking the "Shanghai Stock Exchange 30-Year Government Bond Index" [4] - The index reflects the overall performance of 30-year government bonds listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, with a duration of approximately 21 years, making it highly sensitive to interest rate changes [4]

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced a collective decline in the morning session on June 6, 2025, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.06%, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.18%, and the ChiNext Index down 0.48% [1] - The total market turnover reached 763.1 billion yuan, an increase of 34.7 billion yuan compared to the previous day, with over 2900 stocks declining [1] - The 30-year government bond futures saw a rise of 0.3%, currently at 119.72 points, while the 10-year bond rose 0.17% to 108.92 points [1] Group 2 - The People's Bank of China announced a 10 trillion yuan reverse repurchase operation on June 6, which is expected to alleviate market concerns and support liquidity at the end of the month [1][2] - Financial institutions believe that this operation signals a shift towards easing monetary policy, similar to the MLF announcement made two and a half months ago, which stabilized market expectations [2] - The potential for a second round of reverse repurchase operations is not ruled out, which could be beneficial for the bond market, especially with 1.2 trillion yuan of reverse repos maturing this month [2]