关税前景不确定性

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宝城期货国债期货早报-20250604
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-06-04 01:50
Report on Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoints - The overall view on Treasury bond futures is a volatile rebound. In the short - term and medium - term, they are expected to be volatile, and the intraday view is slightly bullish. The core logic is that the uncertainty of tariff prospects deepens, the main tone of moderately loose monetary policy remains unchanged, and the current market interest rate implies that the expectation of interest rate cuts is basically zero, giving Treasury bond futures upward momentum. However, the policy effect needs verification, the probability of short - term interest rate cuts decreases, and there is pressure on the supply side of Treasury bonds, causing short - term pressure on Treasury bond futures. Overall, the upward and downward spaces of Treasury bond futures are limited in the short term, and they will mainly fluctuate and consolidate [1][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2509 variety, the short - term view is volatile, the medium - term view is volatile, the intraday view is slightly bullish, and the overall view is a volatile rebound. The core logic is the rising tariff risk and the increasing risk - aversion sentiment [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, TS, the intraday view is slightly bullish, the medium - term view is volatile, and the reference view is a volatile rebound. The current Treasury bond futures are in a stage where both the upward and downward spaces are limited. The upward momentum comes from the uncertain tariff prospects, the moderately loose monetary policy, and the near - zero expectation of interest rate cuts in the market. The short - term pressure comes from the need to verify policy effects, the reduced probability of short - term interest rate cuts, and the supply - side pressure of Treasury bonds [4].