Q&A 2025 年宏观经济和投资环境的总体看法是什么？ 2025 年在实际经济和金融条件两个层面上都有显著变化。在实际经济层面， 我们认为中游制造业是最值得关注的领域，因为其领先指标完备、可跟踪、可 验证。在金融条件方面，存款分布问题将对市场产生重要影响。我们认为 2025 年是中国社会风险偏好恢复和存款积极搬家的元年，而 2026 年可能成 存款分布对投资估值和风格切换具有重要意义。2025 年 M2 同比上升， 2026 年将逐渐回落，估值拔高逻辑会弱化。2025 年居民存款活化导致 创业板跑赢沪深 300，但 2026 年这种趋势将减弱，股市需更重视安全 边际和盈利改善。 对 2026 年股票市场持战略看多态度，但估值提升与创业板大幅跑赢将 减弱，交易量可能维持活跃但难以继续大幅增长。基本面将接棒波动率 逻辑，关注估值分位数低、股息率高且基金配置低配的领域，如保险、 家电等。 对 2026 年债券市场持冷静客观态度，认为其前景不佳。相对于股票， 当前债券依然偏贵，短端资金波动率难以维持低水平，十年国债利率应 在 2%以上。预计明年至少要上升二三十个 BP 后再谈趋势。 摘要 预计 2026 年实际 G ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information is provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Current price data remains weak. The significant increase in gold prices is the main factor supporting the upward trend of core CPI year - on - year growth, while most other sub - items perform weaker than the seasonal average. The narrowing of the PPI decline in August is mainly due to the low base effect. The effectiveness of the national unified market construction policy is mainly concentrated in upstream industries such as coal, steel, and photovoltaic. The ineffective recovery of domestic demand may hinder the PPI's year - on - year recovery. The sustainability of the current industrial price increase and its price transmission effect on downstream industries depend on the improvement of social terminal demand [4][35]. - The bond market may gradually recover in a volatile manner. The decreasing correlation between stocks and bonds and the weakening impact of commodities on the bond market mean that the adjustment pressure on bonds is gradually alleviating. Given the continuous asset shortage, loose funds, and the downward trend of the entity's return rate, the downward trend of broad - spectrum interest rates such as loan interest rates remains unchanged. The over - increase in interest rates at the beginning of the year has been gradually digested. Therefore, there is limited room for further interest rate adjustment, and the bond market will gradually return to the fundamentals and the asset shortage situation. However, this return may not be smooth but rather a gradual recovery in a volatile manner. It is recommended to adopt a dumbbell - shaped operation strategy, combining short - term credit/certificates of deposit with long - term interest rates, and pay attention to the opportunities for high - selling and low - buying in long - term interest rate positions. The long - term bond interest rate may decline more smoothly in the second half of the fourth quarter, and interest rates are still expected to reach new lows this year [5][36]. 3. Summary by Related Content CPI Analysis - **Overall CPI**: In August, the year - on - year decline of CPI widened, dropping from flat to - 0.4%, indicating weak consumer - end prices. The year - on - year decline of core CPI increased by 0.1 percentage points to 0.9%, and the month - on - month figure remained flat. Gold prices, oil prices, and summer consumption are the main factors driving the CPI's year - on - year performance. After excluding the "other goods and services" sub - item, the overall price level remains weak [1][8]. - **Other Goods and Services Sub - item**: In August, this sub - item continued to grow at a high level, with a year - on - year increase of 8.6%, 0.6 percentage points higher than in July. The high - speed growth may be supported by the rising gold prices. In August, the year - on - year growth rate of domestic gold futures prices was 37.1%, slightly down 0.7 percentage points from July [2][16]. - **Food CPI**: In August, the year - on - year decline of food CPI widened, with a year - on - year decrease of 4.3%, 2.7 percentage points more than the previous month, mainly due to the decline in vegetable, egg, and fruit prices. The month - on - month increase was 0.5%, lower than the seasonal level by about 1.1 percentage points. The low pork prices are the main reason for the widening of the CPI's year - on - year decline [21]. - **Non - food CPI**: In August, the year - on - year growth rate of non - food CPI increased to 0.5%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, while the month - on - month figure decreased by 0.1%. The increase in the year - on - year growth rate of summer service prices may be the main reason [23]. PPI Analysis - **Overall PPI**: In August, the year - on - year decline of PPI was 2.9%, narrowing by 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, the first narrowing since March this year, mainly due to the low base effect of the previous year and the narrowing decline of coal processing and ferrous metal smelting and rolling industries. The month - on - month figure remained flat compared to the previous month. The prices of domestic industrial products showed a mixed trend in August [3][29]. - **Sub - industries of PPI**: Some raw material industries' prices changed from decline to increase, such as coal processing, coal mining and washing, ferrous metal smelting and rolling, and glass manufacturing. However, the prices of the petroleum and some non - ferrous metal industries declined month - on - month due to input factors [3][29]. - **PPI of Means of Livelihood**: In August, the year - on - year decline of the PPI of means of livelihood was 1.7%, 0.1 percentage points wider than the previous month. Among them, the prices of clothing remained flat, the growth rate of general daily necessities slowed down, the decline of durable consumer goods widened, and the decline of food prices narrowed [30].

Core Insights - The Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda indicated that the price trend is now closer to 2%, suggesting a lower risk of falling into deflation compared to March 2024 [1] Group 1 - The current inflation trend is more aligned with the target of 2% [1] - The risk of deflation has decreased compared to previous assessments [1]

Group 1 - The Governor of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, does not believe that the uncertainty surrounding tariff impacts will suddenly dissipate [1] - The risk of falling back into deflation is lower compared to March 2024 [1] - The linkage between inflation and wages continues to persist [1] - Price trends are now closer to the 2% target than before [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Governor of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, emphasizes the need for a comprehensive assessment of price trends and will carefully evaluate the impact of trade policies [1] Group 1 - The Bank of Japan is focused on understanding the overall price trends in the economy [1] - There is a cautious approach towards evaluating the effects of trade policies on the economy [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan indicates that price trends may align with the outlook targets for the second half of the year, despite facing high uncertainty regarding the economy and prices [1] Economic Outlook - The economic environment is characterized by significant uncertainty, which could impact future monetary policy decisions and economic forecasts [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Governor of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, indicated that there is limited room for interest rate increases when necessary to boost the economy, with the current short-term interest rate maintained at 0.5% [1] Economic Indicators - The inflation trend is still some distance from the target of 2% [1]

Core Insights - The Governor of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, highlighted an increase in domestic and international uncertainties, particularly regarding tariff prospects [1] - Ueda indicated that maintaining low interest rates while price trends improve would be excessively accommodative [1] - The Bank of Japan will closely monitor the impact of tariffs and formulate policies accordingly, emphasizing collaboration with the government [1] - Attention will be given to price levels, economic conditions, and financial markets [1]