加 班 宏 观 研 究 政策月报 2026 年 03 月 03 日 全国"两会"如何跟踪？ —— 2 月政策跟踪观察 全国"两会"启幕在即，哪些议程值得关注，核心指标预期几何？本文基于历史经验及高频跟 踪，系统分析，可供参考。 一问：本次"两会"重点关注哪些议程？核心报告审议、重点新闻发布会、"十五五"规划 核心报告审议是全国"两会"最关键的法定议程，被审议报告包括政府工作报告、计划与预算 报告、人大常委会工作报告等。2025 年"两会"经验显示，3 月 5 日人大开幕会听取政府工作 报告、审查经济工作计划和财政预算草案；3 月 8 日第二次全体会议听取人大常委会、最高法、 最高检工作报告，3 月 11 日闭幕会则对各项报告决议进行表决。 "两会"期间的新闻发布与记者会或是理解政策部署的重要窗口。2025 年 3 月 4 日人大新闻发 布会率先解读议程；3 月 6 日、7 日、9 日，分别召开经济主题、外交主题和民生主题记者会， 由国家发改委、财政部、外交部、民政部等部门负责人回应热点。3 月 11 日总理记者会和期间 召开的"代表通道""部长通道"等，均是了解"两会"政策部署的核心窗口。 "十五五" 规划相 ...

联系人 | 侯倩楠 摘要 全国"两会"启幕在即，哪些议程值得关注，核心指标预期几何？基于历史经验及高频跟踪，本文系统梳理，可供参考。 一问：本次"两会"重点关注哪些议程？核心报告审议、重点新闻发布会、"十五五"规划 核心报告审议是全国"两会"最关键的法定议程，被审议报告包括政府工作报告、计划与预算报告、人大常委会工作报告等。 2025年"两会"经验显示，3月5日 人大开幕会听取政府工作报告、审查经济工作计划和财政预算草案；3月8日第二次全体会议听取人大常委会、最高法、最高检工作报告，3月11日闭幕会则对 各项报告决议进行表决。 "两会"期间的新闻发布与记者会或是理解政策部署的重要窗口。 2025年3月4日人大新闻发布会率先解读议程；3月6日、7日、9日，分别召开经济主题、外交 主题和民生主题记者会，由国家发改委、财政部、外交部、民政部等部门负责人回应热点。3月11日总理记者会，期间召开的"代表通道""部长通道"等，均是 了解"两会"政策部署的核心窗口。 货币政策或维持"适度宽松"总基调，落实"十五五"规划建议稿中"构建科学稳健的货币政策体系和覆盖全面的宏观审慎管理体系"的要求。 当前，传统信贷调 控框架的有效 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles is that China's monetary policy will remain moderately accommodative in 2026, focusing on counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments to support high-quality economic development and structural transformation [1][2] - Starting from January 19, the People's Bank of China will lower the re-lending and rediscount rates by 0.25 percentage points, which is expected to enhance banks' willingness to lend in key areas and reduce credit costs [1] - The structural policy adjustment includes targeted interest rate reductions for key supported sectors and an increase in the quota for structural tools, broadening the coverage of credit support to include sectors like technology innovation, small and medium-sized enterprises, green projects, and employment [1] Group 2 - There is still room for further interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions this year, with structural tools being prioritized initially, while total tools may be used more moderately later [2] - The average statutory reserve requirement ratio is at 6.3%, with a safe distance from the historical low of 5%, indicating potential for further easing [2] - The focus on prices is increasing, with expectations that macro policy coordination and initiatives to boost consumption will improve supply-demand matching, leading to a limited rise in inflation in 2026 compared to 2025 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is implementing targeted monetary policy measures to support high-quality development of the real economy, including a 0.25 percentage point reduction in various structural monetary policy tool rates [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Measures - The PBOC has lowered the one-year re-lending rate from 1.5% to 1.25%, marking the second reduction of this rate since May 2025 [2]. - The reduction in re-lending rates is expected to lower the cost of funds for commercial banks, potentially leading to lower loan rates for enterprises and individuals, particularly in sectors like small and micro enterprises and agriculture [2][3]. - The PBOC aims to enhance the efficiency of financial services to the real economy by using structural monetary policy tools to direct credit resources to weak links and key areas [3]. Group 2: Additional Support Measures - The PBOC plans to increase the quota for re-lending to support agriculture and small enterprises by 500 billion yuan, with a separate quota of 1 trillion yuan specifically for private enterprises [8]. - The quota for re-lending aimed at technological innovation and transformation has been increased from 800 billion yuan to 1.2 trillion yuan, expanding support to high R&D investment private small and medium enterprises [8]. - The PBOC is merging existing bond financing support tools for private enterprises and technological innovation, providing a total re-lending quota of 200 billion yuan [8]. Group 3: Broader Economic Implications - The PBOC has indicated that there is still approximately 1.3 percentage points of room for further reductions in the reserve requirement ratio, suggesting ongoing flexibility in monetary policy [6]. - The central bank emphasizes a cautious approach to monetary policy, avoiding excessive liquidity to prevent future inflation and debt issues, while focusing on targeted support for economic transformation [7]. - The PBOC's measures are designed to work in conjunction with fiscal policies to enhance the effectiveness of monetary policy and stimulate effective domestic demand [9].

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China will conduct a 900 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation on January 15, 2026, with a term of 6 months, to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system [1] - Several banks, including China Merchants Bank and Industrial Bank, are launching gold-linked structured deposit products in response to declining deposit rates and rising gold prices, appealing to risk-averse investors [2] - Commercial banks are intensifying capital replenishment, with 39 banks receiving regulatory approval for capital changes as of January 13, 2026, primarily through targeted stock issuance and perpetual bonds [3] Group 2 - CITIC Bank reported a net profit of 70.618 billion yuan for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 2.98%, despite a slight decline in total operating revenue, indicating pressure on profitability amid economic challenges [4] - CITIC Securities anticipates that the Federal Reserve will pause interest rate cuts in January 2026 and will implement two rate cuts of 25 basis points each throughout the year, influenced by moderate inflation trends [5]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) will conduct a 900 billion yuan reverse repo operation on January 15, 2026, to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system, marking the fifth consecutive month of increased reverse repo operations [1] - The operation will involve a fixed amount and interest rate bidding, with a term of six months (181 days), and is an increase of 300 billion yuan compared to the previous month, which aligns with market expectations [1] - In January, the total increase in reverse repo operations for both six-month and three-month terms is 300 billion yuan, with the three-month reverse repo being a rollover of 11 trillion yuan [1] Group 2 - Analysts suggest that the PBOC will continue to use reverse repos and Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) tools to inject medium-term liquidity into the market, reflecting a continuation of the 'moderately loose' monetary policy in 2026 [2] - There is an expectation that the demand for counter-cyclical adjustment policies may decrease in the short term due to the effectiveness of growth-stabilizing policies and strong external demand, which could delay expectations for a reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut [2]

Core Viewpoint - The series of articles by "Zhong Caiping" published in the People's Daily starting January 7 serves as a significant indicator of the government's economic strategy for 2026, emphasizing practical guidance for economic work and addressing key areas of focus [1][4]. Group 1: Articles Overview - The "Zhong Caiping" series consists of six articles covering themes such as tailored economic work, development towards new and superior standards, enhancing macroeconomic governance, promoting consumption and investment, improving livelihoods, and expanding openness [5]. - The articles aim to clarify the central government's strategic framework for the upcoming period, particularly in light of the recent Central Economic Work Conference's focus on 2026's key tasks [5][6]. Group 2: Economic Policy Insights - The article titled "Enhancing Policy Integration Effects" highlights a new emphasis on stabilizing economic growth and reasonable price recovery as key considerations for monetary policy, reflecting a shift in approach [8]. - The 2026 monetary policy is expected to maintain a moderately loose stance, focusing on high-quality economic development and reasonable price recovery, with a combination of total and structural policy tools to support demand and stabilize market expectations [9]. Group 3: Investment and Consumption Dynamics - The article "Coordinating Consumption and Investment" argues that investment and consumption are not mutually exclusive but rather mutually reinforcing, essential for achieving a growth target of around 5% in 2026 [10]. - Recent measures include the early release of a project list and central budget investment plan totaling 295 billion yuan, aimed at stabilizing investment and ensuring continuity in project execution [11]. Group 4: Real Estate Sector Outlook - The article "Promoting High-Quality Development in Real Estate" indicates that there remains significant potential in the real estate sector, with unmet housing demand among urban residents, suggesting a continued role as a pillar industry [12]. - The focus on improving livelihoods through real estate development is expected to stimulate substantial investment, with initiatives like affordable housing and urban infrastructure projects projected to generate nearly 2 trillion yuan in annual investment [12].

Group 1 - The bond market is expected to exhibit a "top and bottom" oscillation pattern in 2025, with a continuation of differentiation and fluctuation into 2026, highlighting certain bonds with relative value [2] - Under a backdrop of moderately loose monetary policy and stable funding conditions, medium- to short-term interest rate bonds and high-grade credit bonds are anticipated to provide stable coupon yields, serving as core components for portfolio construction and volatility resistance [2] - Super long-term government bonds have become attractive after significant adjustments, with potential for trading rebounds in the absence of further negative catalysts [2] Group 2 - Focus on regional and industry-specific credit bond opportunities, emphasizing structural exploration in a low overall credit spread environment, particularly in light of the implementation of debt policies in 2026 [3] - The monetary policy is expected to maintain a "moderately loose" orientation, with a two-phase interest rate trend anticipated for 2026: a decline in the first quarter followed by an increase in the second quarter [3] - The central economic work conference indicates that city investment bonds will remain a key focus, with expectations for new measures to alleviate local government debt risks [4] Group 3 - Innovative bond types such as technology innovation bonds and green bonds are expected to expand, supported by policies aimed at enhancing financing channels for tech enterprises [4] - The improvement in corporate profitability expectations, particularly in industries like steel and photovoltaics, is likely to alleviate some corporate debt issues and reduce credit risks in related industry bonds [5] - Key developments in the bond market infrastructure are anticipated, including the unification and high-quality development of the domestic bond market and the deepening of the interconnection between the mainland and Hong Kong bond markets [5]

Core Viewpoint - The liquidity environment remains relatively loose despite previous fluctuations due to year-end factors, with expectations for continued low volatility in the funding landscape through 2026 [1] Group 1 - The impact of year-end and month-end factors previously caused a slight increase in government bond yields [1] - Multiple institutions believe that the current liquidity environment is still maintaining a loose stance based on the central tendency of funding rates and monetary policy orientation [1] - The expectation for stable growth demand and a monetary policy that maintains a "moderately loose" tone will support the continuation of low volatility in the funding environment [1]

Group 1: 2025 Financial Environment - In 2025, the financial environment was characterized by a "low wave" state, with a stable overall trend under a moderately loose monetary policy[1] - The year can be divided into two phases: Phase one saw long-term interest rates decline rapidly, while Phase two experienced a return to reasonable interest rate levels[1] - The central bank's approach included a pause in government bond trading to maintain a cautious liquidity supply, leading to a tight balance in the financial market[1] Group 2: Changes in Monetary Framework - The reduction in financial volatility was attributed to changes in the interest rate transmission system, with the OMO rate established as the core policy rate[2] - The monetary policy framework evolved to a more refined operation, allowing for quick stabilization of short-term funding fluctuations[2] - The new framework includes short-term 7-day reverse repos for daily liquidity adjustments and medium to long-term funding through 3- and 6-month reverse repos, MLF, and government bond transactions[2] Group 3: 2026 Financial Outlook - For 2026, the expectation is that the "low wave" state will likely continue, with a focus on maintaining a moderately loose monetary policy to support growth[3] - The demand for financing and consumer willingness remain subdued, with residential short-term loans decreasing by CNY 732.8 billion and long-term loans at a decade low[3] - The central bank is expected to continue using 7-day and 14-day reverse repos for daily liquidity management, alongside a combination of reverse repos, MLF, and government bond transactions for medium to long-term funding[3] Group 4: Short-term Challenges - Despite a stable financial outlook, there are short-term challenges that could disrupt this stability, including fiscal pressures and the impact of new stock offerings on liquidity[4] - The government is likely to increase bond issuance in early 2026, which may create additional liquidity pressures in the market[4] - The trend of increased demand for funds due to new stock offerings has been observed, with significant fluctuations in overnight funding rates during these periods[4]