Report Information - Report Title: Treasury Bond Daily Report [1] - Date: August 21, 2025 [2] - Researcher: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Long - term, the bullish foundation of the bond market remains unchanged as the Politburo meeting in July maintained the "moderately loose" stance on monetary policy, and there are uncertainties in tariffs and potential risks of export decline after front - loading. However, in the short term, the stock - bond seesaw effect has strengthened since late June, and the bullish equity market has put pressure on the bond market. The marginal weakening of July's fundamental data still shows short - term resilience, making it difficult to trigger a significant increase in easing sentiment. The short - term rebound of the bond market is unlikely to form a trend. A similar situation occurred from February to March this year, and it may require the alleviation of relevant negative factors for the bond market to stabilize and rise again. It is recommended to maintain the strategy of going long on short - term bonds and short on long - term bonds [11][12] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Conditions**: The stock - bond seesaw continued. In the morning, the weak stock market boosted the bond market sentiment, and treasury bond futures rebounded across the board. However, in the afternoon, the rising stock market suppressed the bond market, and the decline widened at the end of the session [8] - **Interest Rate Bonds**: The yields of major inter - bank interest rate bonds across all maturities increased, with a larger increase at the long end. By 16:30 pm, the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250011 reported 1.7825%, up 1.65bp [9] - **Funding Market**: The central bank actively protected the funding market. The inter - bank funding market tightened in the morning and loosened again in the afternoon. There were 218.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturities, and the central bank conducted 616 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, achieving a net injection of 397.5 billion yuan. The tax - payment period disturbance was gradually weakening. The short - term funding rates increased slightly, with the overnight weighted rate of inter - bank deposits rising 0.29bp to 1.47% and the 7 - day rate rising 2.28bp to 1.568%. The medium - and long - term funds were stable, and the 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit rate remained around 1.6% [10] - **Conclusion**: Long - term bullish foundation unchanged, but short - term pressure exists. Maintain the strategy of going long on short - term bonds and short on long - term bonds [11][12] 2. Industry News - The deputy governor of the People's Bank of China, Zou Lan, stated that policies would be strengthened to stimulate the vitality of the movable property financing market, which is important for small and medium - sized enterprises to solve financing problems and for the diversified development of the financial market [13] - The central bank's second - quarter monetary policy implementation report proposed to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, maintain sufficient liquidity, promote a reasonable recovery of prices, and use structural monetary policy tools to support key areas [14] 3. Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Include information on the trading data of treasury bond futures contracts, cross - maturity spreads, cross - variety spreads, and the trend of main contracts [6][15][16] - **Money Market**: Data on bank - to - bank pledged repurchase weighted rates, inter - bank deposit pledged repurchase rates, SHIBOR term structure and trend [25][28][33] - **Derivatives Market**: Data on Shibor3M interest rate swap fixing curves and FR007 interest rate swap fixing curves [37][38]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report The report points out that due to high macro - uncertainty, copper prices continue to fluctuate. The international situation, especially the Russia - Ukraine conflict, has high uncertainty, leading to cautious market sentiment. Technically, copper prices are in high - level oscillations, with short - term possible continuation of the trend and poor medium - term fundamentals. The supply - demand situation shows high inventories and insufficient demand, resulting in weak spot demand [1][2]. Summary by Related Content Market Situation - The US - Russia talks on Saturday morning had no clear progress. The US dollar fell and the euro rose on Friday, with most non - ferrous metals dropping at night, led by aluminum. European and Ukrainian leaders went to the US, increasing international situation uncertainty. The RMB - US dollar exchange rate rose slightly during the day, and all non - ferrous metals declined. Shanghai copper, international copper, and LME copper fell, while domestic spot copper rose [1]. - The closing price of Shanghai copper was 78,950, and the spot price was 79,430. The intraday high of Shanghai copper was followed by a decline, with a spot premium of 480 points. The spot basis premium rose to 225 points, and spot trading was poor. The LME spot discount widened to -$94 this week, indicating weak external spot demand [1]. Inventory and Demand - This week, the inventories of US copper, LME copper, and Shanghai copper all increased, showing insufficient spot demand. The RMB exchange rate rose slightly, and the Yangshan copper premium rose slightly to $48.5, indicating weak domestic spot demand [1]. - The LME - Shanghai copper ratio remained at 8.13, and the premium of international copper over Shanghai copper decreased to 207 points, with the external price - to - ratio slightly higher than the domestic one [1]. Technical Analysis - LME copper oscillated and fell slightly, trading around $9,744. Shanghai copper rose first and then fell, closing at 78,950, with a neutral technical form. The trading volume and open interest of Shanghai copper both decreased, and market sentiment was cautious [2]. Market Indicators | Date | RMB Exchange Rate | Spot Premium (yuan/ton) | Yangshan Copper Premium (USD/ton) | LME Copper - Futures - Spot Spread | Main Contract Shanghai - LME Ratio | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Aug 12 | 7.1856 | 250 | 47 | | - 83 | 8.13 | | Aug 13 | 7.1816 | 180 | 47 | | - 87 | 8.10 | | Aug 14 | 7.1822 | 180 | 47 | | - 79 | 8.07 | | Aug 15 | 7.1890 | 210 | 48.5 | | - 89 | 8.10 | | Aug 18 | 7.1837 | 480 | 48.5 | | - 94 | 8.13 | [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment outlook for the insurance sector, particularly highlighting undervalued insurance stocks as potential investment opportunities [4][38]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the recent strategic acquisitions by Ping An in China Pacific Insurance and China Life, indicating a potential revaluation of undervalued insurance stocks due to increased institutional investment [1][2]. - It notes that the downward trend in long-term interest rates and the pressure on bond yields necessitate insurance companies to diversify into "quasi-fixed income" assets, enhancing stable income sources [2]. - The report highlights the robust performance of brokerage firms, with significant growth in brokerage and credit business revenues, indicating a recovery in the capital markets [3]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The report indicates a general increase in major indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.70% and the Shenzhen Component Index by 4.55% during the week [9]. - The non-bank financial sector saw a significant uptick, with the non-bank financial index increasing by 6.48% [9]. Securities Sector - Brokerage business saw a total trading volume of 12.09 trillion yuan, with a daily average of 2.02 trillion yuan, reflecting a 21.39% increase week-on-week [17]. - The report notes a substantial increase in IPO underwriting, with a cumulative scale of 592.44 billion yuan for the year [17]. Insurance Sector - The report highlights the low price-to-book (PB) ratios of China Pacific Insurance and China Life at 1.25x and 1.21x, respectively, suggesting potential for value reappraisal [1]. - It emphasizes the importance of insurance companies in the long-term investment landscape, particularly as they adapt to changing interest rates and market conditions [2]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on key insurance companies such as Sunshine Insurance, China Pacific Insurance, New China Life, Ping An, China Life, and China Property & Casualty [4][39]. - In the securities sector, it recommends attention to leading brokerage firms like CITIC Securities, Huatai Securities, Guotai Junan, and GF Securities [4][39].

Report Information - Report Title: Treasury Bond Daily Report [1] - Date: August 8, 2025 [2] - Researcher: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Long - term, the bullish foundation for the bond market remains unchanged as the Politburo meeting in July indicated a "moderately loose" monetary policy orientation and there are uncertainties in tariffs and potential post - export slumps. Short - term, the bond market is suppressed by export, economic fundamentals, commodity recovery, and rising risk appetite, but is supported by the expected loose funds in August. It may enter a volatile phase, and attention should be paid to economic data, anti - involution measures, and the actual implementation of exemption extensions on August 12 [11][12] Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Performance**: Due to better - than - expected export data and the rebound of the A - share market, treasury bond futures rose in the morning and then fell back in the afternoon, with all varieties closing slightly higher [8] - **Interest Rate on Cash Bonds**: The yields of major - term interest rate cash bonds in the inter - bank market declined slightly, with the long - end yields dropping by about 1bp. By 16:30, the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250011 was reported at 1.6875%, down 0.95bp [9] - **Funding Market**: At the beginning of the month, funds were stable and loose, and funding rates fluctuated within a narrow range. There were 2832 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturities, and the central bank conducted 1607 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 1225 billion yuan. The short - term funding rates fluctuated slightly, and the medium - and long - term funds were stable with a slight increase [10] 2. Industry News - **Trade Data**: In July, China's exports (in RMB) increased by 8% year - on - year, and imports increased by 4.8%. The trade surplus was 705.1 billion yuan. The total trade value with the US was 2.42 trillion yuan, a decrease of 11.1% [13] - **Monetary Policy Tools**: In July, the central bank's various tools achieved a net investment of 236.5 billion yuan, 419.5 billion yuan less than the previous month. Analysts believe that the central bank has switched its primary goal to promoting a reasonable recovery of prices and stabilizing growth, and quasi - fiscal tools may be the core link for the coordination of monetary and fiscal policies [13] 3. Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures Market**: The report presents trading data for various treasury bond futures contracts on August 7, including settlement prices, opening prices, closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, open interest, and changes in open interest [6] - **Money Market**: The report provides data on the term structure changes and trends of SHIBOR, as well as the weighted interest rate changes of inter - bank pledged repurchase and inter - bank deposit pledged repurchase [29][33] - **Derivatives Market**: The report shows the fixed - rate curves (mean values) of Shibor3M interest rate swaps and FR007 interest rate swaps [35]

Group 1 - The bond market experienced a "first suppression, then rise" characteristic in the first half of 2025, with a shift in trading themes due to changing monetary policy expectations and economic fundamentals [1][11][47] - The yield curve transitioned from a bear flattening to a bull flattening, indicating a change in market sentiment and asset repricing [1][11][47] Group 2 - The macroeconomic environment in 2025 is characterized by a moderate recovery, with a projected annual GDP growth of around 5%, but facing challenges from the transition between old and new economic drivers [2][51] - The digital economy and high-end manufacturing are emerging as new growth drivers, but they have not yet fully offset the downward pressure from traditional sectors [2][51] Group 3 - The monetary policy remains "moderately loose," with expectations for further adjustments, including potential reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions to stimulate demand [3][67] - The central bank's approach has shifted towards a more proactive stance in providing liquidity, with a focus on stabilizing market expectations [3][67] Group 4 - Fiscal policy is focused on implementing existing measures while preparing new tools to support infrastructure investment and consumer spending [4][67] - The issuance of special bonds and long-term government bonds is expected to increase to support economic recovery [4][67] Group 5 - The supply-demand dynamics in the bond market are changing, with large banks shifting from an "asset shortage" to a "liability shortage," leading to a preference for short-term bonds [5][67] - Insurance companies have reduced their allocation to long-term government bonds, while wealth management products are expected to support the mid-term bond market [5][67] Group 6 - The bond market is entering a "new normal" characterized by low interest rates, low spreads, and high volatility, with a focus on structural investment opportunities [6][50] - Short-term interest rates are expected to fluctuate within the range of 1.3% to 1.5%, while long-term rates may stabilize around 1.5% to 1.8% [6][50]

Group 1 - The central bank of Sweden indicates that overall, the outlook for inflation and economic activity suggests that monetary policy is likely to be moderately accommodative [1]

Loan Data Analysis - In May 2025, new RMB loans amounted to 620 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 330 billion[1] - The month saw a seasonal increase of 340 billion in loans compared to the previous month, but the year-on-year decline indicates a weakening in loan growth[3] - Corporate loans decreased by 210 billion year-on-year, with medium to long-term corporate loans down by 170 billion, primarily due to local government debt replacement[3][4] Social Financing Insights - New social financing in May reached 2.29 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 227.1 billion, marking the sixth consecutive month of growth[2][6] - Government bond financing was a significant contributor, with a year-on-year increase of 236.7 billion in May, driven by higher net financing of treasury and special bonds[6] - Corporate bond financing also rose by 121.1 billion year-on-year, aided by lower bond issuance rates and the launch of technology innovation bonds[6] Monetary Supply Trends - As of the end of May, M2 growth was 7.9%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slowdown in deposit creation[7][8] - M1 growth accelerated to 2.3%, up by 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, although it remains low, reflecting weak consumer spending and investment[8] - The increase in fiscal deposits due to large-scale government bond issuance has contributed to a temporary monetary contraction effect[7] Future Outlook - The financial support for the real economy is expected to strengthen further, with projections for continued year-on-year growth in social financing in June[2][9] - The central bank is anticipated to maintain a moderately loose monetary policy, with potential interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions in the second half of the year[9]

Report on Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoints - The overall view on Treasury bond futures is a volatile rebound. In the short - term and medium - term, they are expected to be volatile, and the intraday view is slightly bullish. The core logic is that the uncertainty of tariff prospects deepens, the main tone of moderately loose monetary policy remains unchanged, and the current market interest rate implies that the expectation of interest rate cuts is basically zero, giving Treasury bond futures upward momentum. However, the policy effect needs verification, the probability of short - term interest rate cuts decreases, and there is pressure on the supply side of Treasury bonds, causing short - term pressure on Treasury bond futures. Overall, the upward and downward spaces of Treasury bond futures are limited in the short term, and they will mainly fluctuate and consolidate [1][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2509 variety, the short - term view is volatile, the medium - term view is volatile, the intraday view is slightly bullish, and the overall view is a volatile rebound. The core logic is the rising tariff risk and the increasing risk - aversion sentiment [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, TS, the intraday view is slightly bullish, the medium - term view is volatile, and the reference view is a volatile rebound. The current Treasury bond futures are in a stage where both the upward and downward spaces are limited. The upward momentum comes from the uncertain tariff prospects, the moderately loose monetary policy, and the near - zero expectation of interest rate cuts in the market. The short - term pressure comes from the need to verify policy effects, the reduced probability of short - term interest rate cuts, and the supply - side pressure of Treasury bonds [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Today, Treasury bond futures fluctuated and pulled back. Recently, the concentrated issuance of Treasury bonds on the supply - side and the relatively high coupon rate, which is attractive to risk - averse funds, have put pressure on the prices of Treasury bond futures. [4] - The Ministry of Finance announced today that it plans to conduct the third re - issuance of the 2025 ultra - long - term special Treasury bonds (Phase II), with a total amount of 7.1 billion yuan and a coupon rate of 1.88%. As the current yield to maturity of 10 - year Treasury bonds is around 1.7%, market liquidity has tightened in the short term. [4] - In the medium - to - long term, the monetary policy remains moderately loose, so the downside space for Treasury bond futures is limited. Overall, in the short term, both the upside and downside space for Treasury bond futures are limited, and they will mainly fluctuate and consolidate. [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Industry News and Related Charts - On May 29, the People's Bank of China conducted 26.6 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations at a fixed - rate and quantity - tender method, with a winning bid rate of 1.4%. There were 15.45 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing in the open market today, resulting in a net injection of 11.15 billion yuan. [6] - On May 29, the Ministry of Finance plans to conduct the third re - issuance of the 2025 ultra - long - term special Treasury bonds (Phase II). The re - issued bonds are 30 - year fixed - rate coupon - bearing bonds, with a competitive tender face - value total of 7.1 billion yuan and no additional bids from Class A members. The coupon rate is the same as that of the previously issued bonds of the same period, at 1.88%. [6]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced a 500 billion yuan Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) operation to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system, marking the third consecutive month of increased MLF issuance [1][2] - In May, the PBOC's net MLF injection reached 375 billion yuan, following the maturity of 125 billion yuan in MLF, indicating a proactive approach to liquidity management [1][2] - The recent monetary policy measures, including MLF and reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts, aim to support the real economy and enhance credit availability for businesses and households [2][3] Group 2 - The MLF's role has shifted towards a clearer focus on providing one-year liquidity, as its interest rate attribute has gradually diminished [3] - The PBOC's liquidity toolkit has become more diversified, with various instruments available for different timeframes, enhancing the efficiency and precision of liquidity management [3] - Continuous large-scale liquidity operations by the PBOC are designed to optimize the maturity structure of market liquidity, thereby better supporting financial institutions in serving the real economy [3]