Group 1: Currency Performance - The Australian dollar (AUD) has shown weakness since the beginning of the year, trading between 0.62 and 0.64 against the USD in Q1 2025[1] - Since April 9, 2025, the AUD has rebounded significantly from a low of 0.5915, rising for seven consecutive trading days and stabilizing above the 50-day moving average[1] - On May 7, 2025, the AUD reached a high of 0.6515 but failed to break through the 250-day moving average, currently trading around 0.642[1] Group 2: Monetary Policy and Economic Indicators - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has reduced interest rates by 0.25% to 3.85% following a series of rate cuts that began in February 2025[2] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for Q1 2025 showed an annual increase of 2.4%, slightly above the market expectation of 2.3%[2] Group 3: Trade Relations and Future Outlook - Recent positive developments in global trade include a significant reduction in tariffs between the US and China, with US tariffs on Chinese goods dropping from 145% to 30% and Chinese tariffs on US goods from 125% to 10%[2] - If US-China trade relations continue to improve, it is expected that commodity currencies, including the AUD, will benefit significantly[2] - The forecast for the AUD/USD exchange rate in the second half of 2025 is neutral to positive, with support at 0.61 and resistance around 0.69, contingent on breaking the 250-day moving average at approximately 0.649[2]

Group 1 - The US and China have agreed to reduce tariffs from 125% to 34%, with 24% of the tariffs suspended for 90 days, leading to a marginal improvement in exports to the US [1] - High-frequency trade data indicates a rapid increase in shipping prices from China to the US, while prices to Europe remain stable, suggesting a short-term recovery in exports [1] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) rose by 5.5% week-on-week, and the container shipping price index from China to the US West Coast increased by 2.8%, reflecting improved export conditions [1] Group 2 - Container shipping bookings from China to the US surged by 277% in a week, reaching an average of 21,530 standard containers [2] - The steel market has seen price increases due to improved market sentiment and some steel mills raising factory prices [3] - The chemical sector has experienced a significant rebound in prices for PTA, polyester chips, and POY, alongside a decrease in inventory levels [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are influenced by easing trade tensions between the U.S. and China, alongside changes in ETF holdings and market sentiment towards gold [1][2][3]. Group 1: Gold Price Movement - On April 25, gold prices closed at $3,318.62 per ounce, down $31.14 or 0.93%, with a daily high of $3,370.06 and a low of $3,264.99 [1]. - The market is currently experiencing a tendency for investors to buy on dips, suggesting a potential for gold prices to regain an upward trend despite recent declines [2]. Group 2: ETF Holdings and Market Sentiment - As of April 25, gold ETF holdings decreased by 2.29 tons to 946.27 tons, indicating a reduction in bullish sentiment towards gold [2]. - The total value of gold ETF holdings on April 25 was approximately $99.68 billion, down from about $101.07 billion on April 24 [2]. Group 3: Trade Tensions and Economic Indicators - Recent indications show that China is considering removing high tariffs on certain U.S. imports, which may alleviate trade tensions and positively impact gold prices [2]. - The U.S. dollar index has risen, contributing to increased costs for non-U.S. buyers of gold, thereby exerting downward pressure on gold prices [3].