【导读】特朗普要对印度动手了 中国基金报记者 泰勒 大家好，简单关注一下特朗普跟印度之间的消息。 特朗普称将大幅提高对印度关税 8月4日晚间， 美国总统特朗普在其社交媒体发文表示，印度不仅大量购买俄罗斯石油，还将其中大部分石油在公开市 场上出售，牟取暴利。特朗普表示，他将大幅提高印度向美国缴纳的关税。 7月30日，特朗普表示将对印度出口到美国的商品征收25%的关税，并对新德里从俄罗斯采购能源和军备施加未具体说 明的额外处罚。此威胁发生在特朗普缩短俄罗斯达成与乌克兰停火期限的次日。 华盛顿及其盟友认为，印度购买俄罗斯能源等同于对莫斯科的一种默许支持，削弱了他们因俄乌战争而实施的制裁效 果。 特朗普在宣布印度关税后的次日，在Truth Social上发文称： "我不在乎印度和俄罗斯做什么，他们可以一起拖着他们 那垂死的经济下水，对我来说无所谓。" 消息出来之后，印度在美股上市的ETF直线跳水。 | 印度股指ETF | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 基 US.INDA | | | | | | | | | -0.32 ...

国际货币基金组织：已看到在关税提高之前提前部署的有力证据，以及一些贸易转向的迹象。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The increase in tariffs is likely to bring additional inflationary pressure for a period of time [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's Logan indicates that higher tariffs may contribute to inflation [1]

Core Point - The European Union will not receive any letters from the United States regarding an increase in tariffs [1] Group 1 - The EU is not expecting any communication from the US about raising tariffs, indicating a potential stability in trade relations [1]

Core Viewpoint - UBS analysts suggest that if Trump reinstates tariffs, the US dollar may weaken significantly due to potential increased tariffs on all trade partners without a trade agreement [1] Group 1: Tariff Implications - The 90-day suspension of tariffs is set to end on July 9 [1] - In the worst-case scenario, the US may reimpose previously announced higher tariffs on all trade partners [1] Group 2: Currency Impact - A potential increase in tariffs could lead to a sell-off of the US dollar against the euro, Swiss franc, Japanese yen, and British pound [1] - Emerging market currencies, which are generally less liquid, are also expected to decline in value [1]

Group 1 - The International Bank for Settlements states that the trend of rising global government debt is "unsustainable" [1] - Increased tariffs may lead to supply chain disruptions and soaring inflation [1] - Uncertainty in U.S. economic policy is suppressing economic growth [1]

Core Viewpoint - The increase in tariffs may lead to supply chain disruptions and a surge in inflation [1] Group 1 - Higher tariffs are expected to create significant challenges for global supply chains, potentially leading to delays and increased costs [1] - The International Bank for Settlements warns that these tariff hikes could exacerbate inflationary pressures in various economies [1] - The potential for inflation to rise significantly could impact consumer purchasing power and overall economic stability [1]

美联储理事库格勒：已经开始看到关税提高的影响，预计这一趋势将在2025年持续推高通胀。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that increased tariffs and the appreciation of the euro will make exports more challenging for European companies [1] Group 2 - The European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde highlighted the negative impact of higher tariffs on trade dynamics [1] - The strengthening of the euro is expected to further complicate the export landscape for businesses in Europe [1]

Core Viewpoint - The New Zealand Reserve Bank indicates that increased tariffs in the United States will lead to a decrease in global demand for New Zealand exports [1] Group 1 - The U.S. tariff hikes are expected to negatively impact New Zealand's export market [1] - The Reserve Bank's assessment highlights the interconnectedness of global trade and the potential repercussions for New Zealand's economy [1]