摩根士丹利周四撤销了其关于美联储将在12月会议上降息25个基点的预测，此前一份稳健的9月就业报 告显示美国经济具有韧性。 "就业人数的急剧而广泛的反弹表明，夏季经济放缓的程度可能被夸大了，"摩根士丹利的策略师表示。 克利夫兰联储主席哈玛克周四表示，9月就业报告是美国政府停摆结束后一系列补报数据中最重要的一 份，意味着美联储可以关注通胀并"保持某种限制性政策立场.....目前货币政策几乎没有限制性，我们需 要保持这种状态"以确保通胀回到2%的目标。 自从美联储10月降息以来，许多美联储官员已经暗示对今年进一步降低借贷成本持谨慎态度，因为通胀 仍然高于2%的目标。一些分析师表示，如果没有更强有力的证据表明就业市场需要紧急支持，美联储 利率设定委员会中更为谨慎的成员可能在下个月占上风。 "面对联邦公开市场委员会如此多的鹰派立场，且在12月会议之前没有任何进一步的就业报告，最新的 就业数据不太可能使天平倾向于12月降息，"信安环球投资首席全球策略师Seema Shah在一份报告中写 道。 2026年财政刺激可能影响降息前景 一些分析师还指出，随着个人减税、加速折旧津贴和共和党控制的国会通过的其他联邦法律变化在明年 生 ...

•纽约梅隆银行：亚洲外储充足，进口覆盖率处于有利水平，区域抗风险能力强劲 转自：新华财经 •纽约梅隆银行（BNY）指出，尽管部分国家已动用储备稳定汇率，但整体外储仍处高位，区域内各国 进口覆盖率维持在"非常有利"的水平，抗风险能力较强。 •高盛策略师指出，2025年美元与VIX指数（美股波动率指标）的关系发生显著反转，过去五年二者正 相关（恐慌时美元走强），如今却常同步下跌，显示美元作为传统避险资产的吸引力正在减弱。过度关 注美元与标普500的相关性会掩盖其"挥之不去的脆弱性"，而这种脆弱性在美元与VIX的负向联动中更 为清晰，尽管近期相关性略有回归"正常"，但结构性变化值得警惕。 •德意志银行分析师表示，英伟达第三财季业绩显著超预期，在AI计算、网络、软件及系统领域持续领 跑，与同行差距或进一步拉大。管理层预计2025年初至2026年底数据中心相关收入将达约5000亿美元。 基于强劲增长动能，分析师已将英伟达2026–2027财年收入及每股收益预期上调"低双位数百分比"，并 强调其在人工智能基础设施领域的主导地位日益巩固。 •截至10月18日当周，美国初请失业金人数为23.2万，与9月水平基本持平，未现恶化 ...

香港交易所的锣声频频敲响，一家家企业成功上市的背后，都离不开专业保荐机构的保驾护航。据最新数据报告显示，2025年1-10月，共有81家公司 登陆港股市场，其中78家通过IPO方式上市。这些上市项目的背后，是37家券商投行的专业保荐服务。 【港股IPO指南】如何选择靠谱的保荐机构？百惠金控怎么样？ 一、港股保荐机构格局 中资券商在香港IPO市场占据主导地位，成为企业赴港上市的首选合作伙伴。根据专业机构的研究报告，2025年1-10月，中金公司以26单保荐业务位居 榜首，中信证券以23单紧随其后，华泰国际则以15单位列第三。从更长的时间维度看，中金公司的领先优势更为明显。2022年至今，中金公司参与了 73家港股IPO的保荐业务，稳居保荐人排行榜首位。外资券商如摩根士丹利、高盛等同样在港股IPO市场占有一席之地，但中资券商的市场份额持续提 升。2025年前五个月，中资券商在港股IPO保荐机构中占比超过五成，成为市场主力。 二、百惠金控市场表现 在许多投资者询问"哪家港股机构靠谱"时，百惠金控以其在IPO发行领域的专长，成为市场关注的机构之一。 三、如何选择保荐机构 面对"港股 IPO 保荐机构怎么选"找专业机构 ...

Macroeconomic Overview - The current economic backdrop for Japan under Prime Minister Kishi is characterized by moderate recovery amidst ongoing re-inflation, contrasting with the deflationary stagnation faced by former Prime Minister Abe [3] - Kishi's economic strategy emphasizes demand-side management to combat external inflation while also pursuing structural supply-side reforms to stimulate new growth sectors [3] Fiscal Policy - Kishi plans to implement an "expansionary but responsible fiscal policy," with expectations of an increase in Japan's fiscal deficit ratio by 2026, although the overall expansion may be limited due to debt risks [3] Monetary Policy - Despite a dovish stance, the Bank of Japan is expected to continue raising interest rates in 2026, with a potential increase of 30 to 50 basis points, while also slowing the pace of balance sheet reduction [3] Industrial Policy - Kishi aims to enhance strategic investments in 17 key industries over the next five years, focusing on sectors such as AI, semiconductors, shipbuilding, quantum technology, biotechnology, aerospace, and cybersecurity [3] Market Impact - The "Kishi trade" observed in October indicates a strengthening of Japanese stocks, while the yen and Japanese bonds weaken, with expectations of a bullish stock market and continued upward pressure on bond yields [4] - The yen is projected to remain under pressure in the short term, with a potential for slight appreciation if U.S. dollar credit declines [4] Automotive Industry - The wholesale prices of passenger vehicles have stabilized in October, with an average discount rate of 18.5%, reflecting a shift from price competition to refined operations in the domestic market [7] - Traditional fuel vehicles maintain a high average discount rate of 26.3%, while new energy vehicles show a more stable discount rate of 12.8%, indicating a dual advantage in cost control and market demand for new energy products [7][8] Investment Fund Trends - As of October 2025, the total net asset value of public funds in China is 36.02 trillion yuan, with a net outflow observed in stock and bond funds, while money market funds saw an increase [12] - Individual investors' risk appetite has been affected by market volatility, leading to a decline in shares of ordinary stock and mixed funds, while QDII and FOF funds have gained traction as safe-haven investments [13] - Mixed FOF products have performed well, with a 63.10% increase in new issuance, as they provide a balance of risk and return for retail investors [14]

美国时间10月29日，美联储再次出手，将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点至3.75%—4.00%之间。这 是自2024年9月以来的第五次降息。美联储表示，美国经济依然温和增长，但就业放缓、失业率上升、通 胀仍偏高。在风险平衡发生变化的背景下，委员会决定再次降息，以支撑经济增长。 随着这次降息靴子落地，市场的关注点迅速转向12月是否还会有下一次降息。然而，美联储主席鲍威尔 在议息会议后的记者会上却给市场泼了一盆冷水——他明确表示，"进一步降息并非板上钉钉"。他解释 说，近期美国政府"停摆"导致多项经济数据发布延迟甚至失真，美联储需要更多时间来观察真实的经济走 势。鲍威尔进一步指出，政府停摆对经济活动构成短期压力，但一旦恢复正常，这些影响将会逆转。这番 话立刻打击了市场信心，原本押注12月必降的交易员措手不及，美股应声转跌，短期美债收益率飙升， 市场对12月降息的概率从95%骤降至71%。 鲍威尔的谨慎态度其实反映出美联储当前的两难局面——一方面，降息过快、过早可能带来新的通胀风 险；另一方面，维持高利率太久又会进一步削弱就业市场。鲍威尔坦言，在稳定物价与促进充分就业之 间，美联储的政策没有绝对安全的路径。这种 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Group-wide net revenue was JPY 515.5 billion, down 2% from the previous quarter, while income before income taxes fell 15% to JPY 136.6 billion, and net income decreased by 12% to JPY 92.1 billion [3][4] - Excluding gains from real estate sales in the previous quarter, net revenue increased by 10%, and net income rose by 40%, indicating steady growth [3] - Earnings per share for the quarter were JPY 30.49, and return on equity was 10.6%, meeting the quantitative target for 2030 of 8%-10% for the sixth consecutive quarter [3][22] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Wealth Management net revenue increased by 10% to JPY 116.5 billion, with income before income taxes growing 17% to JPY 45.5 billion, marking the highest income in about 10 years [8] - Investment Management net revenue reached JPY 60.8 billion, up 20%, with income before income taxes amounting to JPY 30.7 billion, up 43% [10] - Wholesale division net revenue was JPY 279.2 billion, up 7%, with Global Markets net revenue increasing by 6% and Investment Banking net revenue rising by 15% [13] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Recurring revenue assets in Wealth Management totaled JPY 26.2 trillion at the end of September, with net inflows of JPY 289.5 billion [10] - Assets under management in Investment Management surpassed JPY 100 trillion, with net inflows of JPY 498 billion [11] - The Banking Division's net revenue remained flat at JPY 12.9 billion, with income before income taxes falling 12% to JPY 3.2 billion due to higher costs [15] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to transform Japan into an asset management powerhouse by building trust with clients and providing tailored asset management services [23] - The focus remains on self-sustaining growth in Wholesale, with a commitment to maintaining a balance between investment opportunities and shareholder returns [29][55] - The company is preparing for the introduction of a deposit sweep service in the next fiscal year, indicating a strategic move to enhance its banking services [15] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that stock indices in Japan and other major economies rose significantly, contributing to strong earnings and stable revenue sources [21][22] - The company expects continued strong performance in Wealth Management and Investment Banking, with a solid pipeline of corporate actions anticipated [24][60] - Management expressed confidence in maintaining a return on equity of at least 8% even in potential economic slowdowns, focusing on building earnings capability [62] Other Important Information - Group-wide expenses increased by 4% to JPY 378.8 billion, driven by higher compensation and benefits due to performance-linked bonuses [16] - The impact of phishing scams on profits was JPY 4.8 billion, with measures taken to enhance security and reduce future risks [20][21] - The Common Equity Tier 1 ratio at the end of September was 12.9%, within the target range, but expected to decrease post-Macquarie acquisition [18] Q&A Session Summary Question: Regarding personnel expenses and CET1 ratio - Management acknowledged the increase in compensation and benefits due to bonuses and retirement payments, and confirmed a commitment to a 40% dividend payout ratio [26][28] Question: Market revenue and risk-taking - Management indicated that credit trading contributed solidly to revenue, with a focus on high-quality deals while being mindful of concentration risks [32][34] Question: October revenue environment and tax burden - Management noted that Wholesale division revenue is strong but at a similar level to Q2, and explained the increase in tax burden due to various technical factors [42][44] Question: Investment Banking pipeline and ROE - Management highlighted a strong advisory pipeline in Japan and expected normalization in ECM, while confirming that base ROE is improving and discussions on target profit levels are ongoing [58][62]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Group-wide net revenue was ¥515.5 billion, down 2% from the previous quarter, while income before income taxes fell 15% to ¥136.6 billion and net income decreased 12% to ¥92.1 billion [3] - Excluding gains from real estate sales in the previous quarter, net revenue increased by 10% and net income rose by 40%, indicating steady growth [3] - Earnings per share for the quarter were ¥30.49, and return on equity was 10.6%, achieving the quantitative target for 2030 for the sixth consecutive quarter [3][20] - Income before income taxes in international regions rose 63% to ¥44.9 billion, marking the ninth consecutive quarter of profitability [3] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Wealth Management net revenue increased 10% to ¥116.5 billion, with income before income taxes growing 17% to ¥45.5 billion, the highest in about 10 years [7] - Investment Management net revenue reached ¥60.8 billion, up 20%, and income before income taxes amounted to ¥30.7 billion, up 43% [9] - Wholesale division net revenue came to ¥279.2 billion, up 7%, with Global Markets net revenue increasing by 6% and Investment Banking net revenue rising by 15% [12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Recurring revenue assets in Wealth Management saw a net inflow of ¥289.5 billion, totaling ¥26.2 trillion at the end of September [8][9] - Investment Management achieved assets under management exceeding ¥100 trillion, with net inflows amounting to ¥498 billion [10] - The overall trend in the market showed strong client activity and revenue growth, particularly in equities and investment banking [12][20] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to transform Japan into an asset management powerhouse by building trust with clients and providing tailored asset management services [21] - The focus remains on self-sustained growth in Wholesale, with a commitment to maintaining a balance between investment opportunities and shareholder returns [27][41] - The management is proactive in enhancing security measures to protect against phishing scams, which have impacted profits [18][19] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - The management noted that stock indices in Japan and other major economies rose steeply, contributing to strong earnings [20] - There is an expectation of continued strong performance in Wealth Management and Investment Banking, with a solid pipeline of opportunities [21][44] - The management is cautious about potential normalization in equity performance but remains optimistic about maintaining stable revenues [39][41] Other Important Information - The company plans to pay a dividend of ¥27 per share, resulting in a dividend payout ratio of 40.3% [6] - Group-wide expenses increased by 4% to ¥378.8 billion, with compensation and benefits rising due to performance-linked bonuses [15] - The CET1 ratio at the end of September was 12.9%, within the target range, but expected to decrease post-acquisition of Macquarie Group's U.S. asset management business [17] Q&A Session Summary Question: Concerns about personnel expenses and CET1 ratio - The CFO acknowledged that compensation and benefits increased due to bonuses linked to earnings and larger-than-usual retirement payments [26] - Regarding the CET1 ratio, the company remains committed to a 40% dividend payout and a total payout ratio of 50% or above, balancing shareholder returns with investment opportunities [27] Question: Market revenue and risk-taking - The CFO explained that while credit trading contributed solidly to revenue, the company is mindful of concentration risks and is selective in deal-making [29][30] Question: October revenue environment and tax burden - The CFO indicated that fixed income trends are strong, and overall Wholesale division revenue is expected to remain stable [35] - The increase in tax burden is attributed to various technical issues, with the CFO unable to provide detailed explanations [36] Question: Sustainability of equity product revenue - The CFO noted strong performance in equities across regions, with expectations for some normalization in the future [39][40] Question: Investment Banking pipeline and ROE - The CFO highlighted a strong advisory pipeline in Japan and international markets, with expectations for continued strength in DCM [45] - The base ROE is gradually improving, and while discussions about raising targets are ongoing, the focus remains on maintaining at least 8% ROE [47]

Domestic Market Overview - The domestic market experienced a volatile rise with increased trading volume, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3950.31 points, up 0.71%, and the Shenzhen Component Index closing at 13289.18 points, up 2.02% [1][9] - The total trading volume for the entire A-share market reached 199.16 billion yuan, showing an increase compared to the previous day [1][9] - Among the 30 first-level industries, 14 saw gains, with telecommunications, electronics, and defense industries leading the increases, while oil, coal, and food and beverage sectors faced significant declines [1][9] Overseas Market Overview - The three major U.S. stock indices all closed higher, with the Dow Jones rising by 1.01%, the S&P 500 up by 0.79%, and the Nasdaq increasing by 1.15% [2] - Notably, IBM's stock surged over 7%, and Goldman Sachs rose more than 4%, leading the gains in the Dow [2] Driving Factors - Recent U.S.-China trade talks held in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, led by Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng and U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, resulted in a basic consensus on key economic issues, which is expected to boost market sentiment [10][14] - A total of 3028 stocks in the A-share market rose, while 2274 fell, indicating a generally positive market environment following the trade discussions [10] Industry Insights - The report highlights the performance of specific sectors, with memory storage, circuit boards, and HBM indices showing active performance [1][9] - The energy sector reported significant growth, with national power generation capacity reaching 3.72 billion kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 17.5%, and solar power capacity growing by 45.7% [21]

Core Insights - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown is pushing the $2 trillion Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) market into unprecedented territory, as the inability to release October's inflation data directly impacts TIPS and inflation swap markets [1][2] - The reliance of TIPS on Consumer Price Index (CPI) data means that the absence of this data could lead to significant market disruptions, with potential activation of a "backup plan" for calculating inflation adjustments [2][3] Group 1: Market Impact - The inability to publish October's CPI data could trigger the use of an estimated CPI value based on the last 12 months' changes, which would not be retroactively adjusted even if actual data is released later [2][3] - Concerns over data quality are already affecting investor demand for TIPS, as investors doubt their ability to hedge against real inflation effectively [5][6] - Despite the uncertainty, the market remains relatively calm, with some analysts attributing the weak performance of TIPS to broader factors such as falling oil prices [7][8] Group 2: Investor Sentiment - The current situation is compared to the "debt ceiling crisis," indicating a critical moment for market participants to monitor [1][3] - Investors are currently not in a state of panic, as the outflow of funds from TIPS-related ETFs has not significantly impacted the overall size of these funds [7] - Experts suggest that as long as price data remains free from political manipulation, the overall market dynamics may not change drastically [8]

Group 1 - The core focus of Wall Street is on the September Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which is expected to significantly influence market trends due to the lack of government data caused by the shutdown [1][2] - Economists predict a 0.4% month-over-month increase in overall CPI for September, maintaining the same level as August, with a year-over-year increase of 3.1%, up 0.2 percentage points from August [1][2] - The report is crucial as it will be the last significant economic data before the Federal Reserve's policy meeting, with expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut [2][4] Group 2 - There are concerns regarding the reliability of the CPI data due to the government shutdown, which has led to a lack of comprehensive economic indicators [4] - The potential impact of tariffs from the Trump administration on prices will be closely monitored, particularly in categories like communication and household goods [3][4] - A significant deviation from expected CPI data could act as a catalyst for market volatility, with higher-than-expected inflation potentially leading to market fluctuations [5]