Core Viewpoint - The bond market has adjusted with a steepening yield curve, and the correlation between stock and bond markets has weakened as of September. The overall bond market has returned to a fluctuating range without significant changes in the funding and economic fundamentals [1]. Group 1: Bond Market Dynamics - As of the latest data, the yields for 2-year, 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year government bonds are 1.41%, 1.62%, 1.85%, and 2.15%, reflecting changes of 0.23, -0.93, 1.35, and 1.00 basis points respectively since the end of August [1]. - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has maintained a reasonable liquidity level, with a net injection of 3,865 billion yuan in August through various monetary policy tools [3]. - The current DR001 and DR007 rates are fluctuating around 1.4% and 1.45%, indicating a stable liquidity environment [3]. Group 2: Economic Recovery - The trade data for August shows a year-on-year export growth rate of 4.4% and an import growth rate of 1.3%, both of which have decreased by 2.8 percentage points compared to the previous month [4]. - The manufacturing PMI for August is reported at 49.40%, a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points, indicating improvements in both supply and demand sides [4]. Group 3: Central Bank Actions - There is a growing expectation for the PBOC to restart government bond trading, influenced by policy signals and changes in liquidity operations [6]. - The PBOC has been utilizing various tools for medium to long-term funding, with the balance of reverse repos increasing significantly since the end of 2024 [6]. - The necessity to restart government bond trading has increased due to the declining balance of government bonds held by the PBOC [6]. Group 4: Market Outlook - With the PBOC's active liquidity support and reduced impact from government bond issuance, significant fluctuations in the funding environment are unlikely in September, and short-term bond trends are expected to remain stable [7]. - The long-term bullish logic for the stock market remains unchanged, which continues to exert downward pressure on long-term bonds [7].

Group 1 - The Bank of Japan has raised its inflation forecast, indicating a higher likelihood of interest rate hikes, which has led to a slight appreciation of the yen [1] - Goldman Sachs estimates that increased tariffs will raise the average effective tariff rate in the U.S. by approximately 14 percentage points by 2025, with a further increase of 3 percentage points to around 20% in the following year, putting pressure on U.S. economic growth [2] - The U.S. GDP growth for the fourth quarter is projected to be only about 1%, with a recession risk estimated at 30% due to the impact of tariffs [2] Group 2 - The French Foreign Trade Bank anticipates a steepening trend in the U.S. Treasury yield curve in the medium term, driven by expectations that the Federal Reserve will begin cutting rates in October [2] - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates in July has raised the threshold for a rate cut in September, with some committee members still supporting a 25 basis point cut, indicating internal divisions within the FOMC [3] - Julius Baer economists predict that U.S. economic growth will slow due to weak private consumption and cautious investment in real estate and equipment [3] Group 3 - Barclays suggests that growth in artificial intelligence investments and increased household wealth may continue to support the U.S. economy, particularly consumer spending among affluent groups [4] - Renaissance Macro Research analysts warn that low unemployment rates may create a false sense of security in the labor market, masking a gradual deterioration [4]