Core Points - The EU is set to impose higher tariffs on e-commerce platforms like Shein, Temu, and AliExpress, as it plans to eliminate the current €150 import tax exemption [1][3][8] - The decision aims to control the influx of cheap Chinese packages into the European market, with over 90% of small parcels entering from China [4][10][16] Group 1: Tariff Changes - The EU finance ministers have voted to remove the €150 import tax exemption, which will now apply to all imported goods, regardless of their price [3][8] - The EU Commission aims to accelerate the implementation of this tariff change, proposing to advance the removal of the "minimum threshold" for tariffs to the first quarter of 2026, two years earlier than initially planned [5][6][15] Group 2: Impact on E-commerce Platforms - The new measures are specifically targeting online platforms like Shein and Temu, indicating a commitment from the 27 EU member states to protect local businesses [9][10] - The number of low-cost packages entering the EU doubled last year to 4.6 billion, with a significant portion coming from China, prompting pressure from European businesses to curb this trend [10][11] Group 3: Member State Responses - Some EU member states are considering their own handling fees for low-cost packages, which could complicate the unified market [12][14] - Romania has proposed a handling fee of 25 lei (approximately $5.73), while Italy plans to introduce a tax by the end of the year to protect its fashion industry [13][14]

Core Viewpoint - The recent tariff reforms in the U.S. are significantly increasing costs for consumers and businesses, leading to a rapid decline in purchasing power for ordinary families [3][15]. Pharmaceutical Industry - The pharmaceutical sector is facing severe disruptions, with companies like Novo Nordisk having to re-label diabetes medication due to a 100% tariff, resulting in an additional $700 per box [6]. - Sumitomo Pharma anticipates a direct loss of $435 million in profits from the U.S. market due to tariffs on its cancer drug [6]. - The lengthy FDA approval process (28 months) complicates the transition to alternative production, exacerbating supply issues for U.S. patients [6][9]. Supply Chain Impact - Indian pharmaceutical companies are pressured to reduce raw material prices by 5%, while facing an 18% increase in steel prices due to tariffs [8]. - U.S. pharmaceutical companies are also struggling, with Pfizer experiencing a 22% increase in the cost of imported vaccine components [8]. Trucking Industry - The trucking sector is heavily impacted, with a 25% tariff causing each truck to cost an additional $87,500, leading to production delays and potential shutdowns [9]. - Domestic companies like PACCAR are facing increased costs due to a 40% rise in steel prices and doubled costs for German robotics, resulting in an estimated $12,000 increase in truck production costs [9]. Furniture Market - The furniture industry is seeing a significant drop in demand, with a 45% price increase from Vietnamese suppliers driving away 60% of American customers [13]. - Ashley Furniture is also affected, facing a 22% increase in domestic lumber prices and a 35% tariff on Vietnamese hardware, raising the cost of cabinets by $380 [13]. Global Economic Impact - The IMF reports that the tariff situation will create an additional $120 billion in trade costs, with 70% of this burden falling on American consumers [15]. - Despite the projected $350 billion investment in new pharmaceutical plants, the R&D processes remain largely overseas, indicating a fragmented production model that may lead to inefficiencies for global consumers [15].

文/《清华金融评论》 王茅 近期美联储是否应该降息？对此美国的金融官员们观点不一。相比之下， 华尔街的机构们对于降息的态度更为乐观。回溯2 0 24年9月美联储启动本 轮降息周期时，预期是2025年将降息100个基点，而截至5月底美联储依 旧按兵不动，因为当时市场没能较好预估"特朗普"这个变量。 美联储近期是否应该降息？ 认为谨慎降息的阵营里，明尼阿波利斯联储主席卡什卡利（Kashkari）近日在东京接受采访时表 示，美国当下贸易与移民政策的重大转变，正为美联储在9月前的利率调整制造诸多不确定性。 目前，特朗普政府正与多国进行关税谈判，这一进程极大地干扰了经济走向，也让美联储的决策 变得艰难。 他表示，一切皆有可能，但情况能否在9月之前足够明朗，还是个未知数。我们必须观察数据走 向，同时关注谈判进展。若美国和其他国家在未来几个月内达成贸易协议，这应该能提供我们所 寻求的清晰度。 卡什卡利此番言论，明确表明美联储并不急于在7月就开启降息周期。他指出，特朗普政府正推 动的关税改革及其带来的通胀预期，使美联储内部对利率政策保持极为谨慎的态度。在通胀预期 未明朗、国际谈判未达成前，美联储将维持当前高利率状态不变。 而 ...