他补充道："2026年，美国与中国市场的增长将放缓，欧洲及德国市场的前景同样不容乐观。这些因素 都将反映在公司2025年与2026年的经营业绩中。" 博世首席执行官Stefan Hartung在接受采访时表示，受此影响，博世2025年税前利润预计将大幅低于目 标值，且较本已表现疲弱的2024年进一步下滑。 Hartung指出："消费者对涨价的接受度正在下降。" 智通财经APP获悉，德国汽车零部件供应商博世首席执行官周四接受采访时表示，受关税政策冲击以及 经济增长疲软拖累消费支出的双重影响，公司预计2025年盈利将大幅下滑，未来一年的经营形势依旧严 峻。 博世还计划裁员约2.2万人，并称高额关税成本与裁员安置补偿金的压力将持续至2026年。当前，德国 本土汽车行业增速放缓，叠加海外市场竞争加剧，德国汽车零部件供应商正面临严峻挑战。 Hartung还称，博世要到2027年之后，才能实现运营利润率不低于7%的长期目标。 ...

智利《信使报》12月15日报道，智利当选总统卡斯特将于2026年3月11日就职，其面临 经济增长疲软、财政恶化与劳动力市场低迷等主要经济挑战。经济学家指出，当前智 利经济增长乏力，预计2025年GDP增速约2.5%，2026年可能进一步放缓，与央行预测 的长期趋势增长率2%相符。复苏长期经济增长被视为解决就业与财政问题的关键驱动 力。劳动力市场持续疲软，8-10月失业率达8.4%，已连续34个月高于8%，全国约85万 人失业，女性失业率接近9%。公共财政方面，结构性赤字持续存在，2025年债务率预 计超42%，若不加纠正可能突破45%的审慎上限。积极因素包括通胀已从2022年14%的 峰值降至今年11月的3.4%，预计2026年上半年将收敛至央行3%的目标；同时铜价持续 走强，每磅超5美元且未来看涨，推动2025年出口额有望突破千亿美元创历史纪录；股 市表现强劲，IPSA指数年内上涨50%突破万点。分析认为新政府需迅速应对增长放 缓、就业市场结构性与周期性困境及财政恶化这三大宏观经济挑战，通过促进投资与 潜在增长来奠定可持续财政基础。 （原标题：卡斯特将面临智利增长乏力和财政疲软的经济挑战） ...

Economic Outlook - Germany's economy is predicted to grow only 0.2% in 2025, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from previous forecasts, and 1.3% in 2026, down by 0.2 percentage points [3] - Unemployment is expected to rise by 155,000, leading to an unemployment rate of 6.3%, with a return to below 6% not anticipated until 2027 [3] Trade and Tariff Impact - Despite a tariff agreement between the EU and the US, tariffs imposed by former President Trump remain largely unchanged, with most goods facing a 15% tariff, putting pressure on German exports to the US, which is still Germany's most important export market [4] Government Stimulus Measures - The effectiveness of Germany's government stimulus plan is expected to be lower than anticipated, with an economic boost of €38 billion projected for 2025, nearly €20 billion less than previous estimates, and only €9 billion for the current year [5] - Future growth may be supported by defense and infrastructure investments [5] Inflation and Policy Challenges - Inflation in Germany is forecasted to rise to 2.6% in 2026, up from 2.2% in 2024, indicating ongoing economic challenges [6] - The ability of Germany to overcome prolonged economic weakness is heavily dependent on government economic policies, with concerns about potential long-term economic stagnation and industrial decline if policy inertia continues [6]

Group 1 - The international gold price has recently surged, reaching a historical high of $3616.9 per ounce [1] - Domestic gold jewelry brands have reported an increase in the price of pure gold jewelry, with brands like Chow Tai Fook and Luk Fook Jewelry pricing at 1053 yuan per gram [2] Group 2 - Gold is regaining favor among investors as a diversification option, especially when bonds fail to mitigate risks, maintaining its status as a 'safe-haven asset' against inflation and loose economic policies [3] - Despite inflation hovering around 3%, the potential for the Federal Reserve to resume interest rate cuts, along with tariff impacts and reduced labor supply, may lead to economic growth slowdown, benefiting gold [3] - The weakening of the US dollar, alongside concerns over expanding fiscal deficits, enhances gold's long-term investment appeal [3] - Structural narratives for investing in gold remain strong, with foreign exchange reserve management institutions continuing to buy gold and global gold ETF holdings on the rise [4]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. GDP data for the first quarter is surprisingly poor, indicating potential economic stagnation similar to the 1970s, with persistent inflation [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The GDP report reflects a market downturn, aligning with expectations of weak economic growth and high inflation [1] - There is a correlation between rising bond yields and declining stock returns, suggesting a challenging economic environment [1] Group 2: Data Noise - The GDP report contains noise due to inventory accumulation activities and the impact of gold shipment volumes on international trade data [1]

Core Viewpoint - The market is currently focused on the risk of "foreign investors potentially reducing their allocation to U.S. assets," but does not assign a high probability to the scenario of "economic growth weakening" [1] Group 1: Economic Outlook - Given the potential for a long-term slowdown in the U.S. economy, current levels of U.S. bonds are considered to have investment value [1] Group 2: Market Sentiment - Pimco's assessment indicates that some investors may begin to believe that the worst phase of the recent market downturn has passed [1]