Core Viewpoint - The delay in the Supreme Court's ruling on the tariff case could be a positive signal for Trump and his supporters, as it may reduce the likelihood of an unfavorable decision against the Trump administration if the ruling is postponed until late February or later [1] Group 1: Analyst Insights - Analysts from Evercore ISI, including Sarah Bianchi, suggest that a delay in the Supreme Court's decision could favor Trump and tariff supporters [1] - Morgan Stanley analysts, Amy Ho and Joyce Chang, share a similar perspective, indicating that the longer the ruling is delayed, the higher the chances of a favorable outcome for the Trump administration [1] - The analysts note that if the ruling is postponed to February, it may indicate that the Supreme Court views the case as a "significant case," comparable in importance to the Affordable Care Act [1] Group 2: Historical Context - Historically, the Supreme Court tends to reserve its most impactful rulings for the end of its term in June, allowing for extended deliberation [1]

Report Information - Report Date: September 3, 2025 [1][4][9][12][15][17][22][25][26] - Report Title: Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Precious Metals and Base Metals Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - Gold is expected to break through new highs; silver is expected to reach the previous high [2][4] - Copper prices are rising due to improved market sentiment [2][9] - Zinc is expected to trade in a range [2][12] - Lead prices are supported by continuous inventory reduction [2][15] - Tin is expected to trade in a range [2][17] - Aluminum is expected to be moderately strong with fluctuations; alumina is expected to trade in a range; attention should be paid to the progress of policy implementation for cast aluminum alloy [2][22] - Nickel's fundamentals suggest narrow - range fluctuations, while news may stimulate market sentiment; stainless - steel prices are expected to move in a narrow range [2][26] Summary by Commodity Precious Metals Gold - **Price Performance**: The closing price of Shanghai Gold 2510 was 804.32 with a daily increase of 0.47%, and the night - session closing price was 813.00 with a 1.08% increase [5] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of Shanghai Gold 2510 decreased by 114,740 compared to the previous day, and the open interest decreased by 2,067 [5] - **ETF and Inventory**: The SPDR Gold ETF's position increased by 13 to 990.56, and the Shanghai Gold inventory increased by 447 to 40,191 kilograms [5] - **Trend Intensity**: Gold trend intensity is 2, indicating a strong bullish view [7] Silver - **Price Performance**: The closing price of Shanghai Silver 2510 was 9824 with a 0.52% daily increase, and the night - session closing price was 9836.00 with a 0.01% increase [5] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of Shanghai Silver 2510 decreased by 336,732 compared to the previous day, and the open interest decreased by 12,097 [5] - **ETF and Inventory**: The SLV Silver ETF's position (the day before yesterday) increased by 56 to 15,366.48, and the Shanghai Silver inventory increased by 8001 to 1,215,228 kilograms [5] - **Trend Intensity**: Silver trend intensity is 2, indicating a strong bullish view [7] Base Metals Copper - **Price Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 79,660 with a - 0.15% daily decrease, and the night - session closing price was 80410 with a 0.94% increase [9] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper main contract decreased by 16,804 compared to the previous day, and the open interest decreased by 579 [9] - **Inventory and News**: The Shanghai Copper inventory decreased by 699 to 19,501 tons. Free Port's Indonesian branch will complete the maintenance of the Gresik plant in early September [9][11] - **Trend Intensity**: Copper trend intensity is 1, indicating a moderately bullish view [11] Zinc - **Price Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 22325 with a 0.68% daily increase, and the LME Zinc 3M electronic - disk closing price was 2833 with a 0.68% increase [12] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Zinc main contract decreased by 14018, and the LME Zinc trading volume decreased by 5760 [12] - **Inventory and News**: The Shanghai Zinc futures inventory increased by 998 to 38955 tons, and the LME Zinc inventory decreased by 275 to 55600 tons. Eurozone inflation slightly rebounded in August [12][13] - **Trend Intensity**: Zinc trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view [13][14] Lead - **Price Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract was 16850 with a - 0.03% daily decrease, and the LME Lead 3M electronic - disk closing price was 2007 with a 0.50% increase [15] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Lead main contract increased by 2369, and the LME Lead trading volume decreased by 2581 [15] - **Inventory and News**: The Shanghai Lead futures inventory decreased by 373 to 56428 tons, and the LME Lead inventory decreased by 1525 to 258025 tons [15] - **Trend Intensity**: Lead trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view [15] Tin - **Price Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 273,980 with a 0.27% daily increase, and the night - session closing price was 274,130 with a - 0.08% decrease [18] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Tin main contract decreased by 75,860, and the open interest decreased by 1,036 [18] - **Inventory and News**: The Shanghai Tin inventory increased by 48 to 7,263 tons, and the LME Tin inventory increased by 20 to 2,175 tons [18] - **Trend Intensity**: Tin trend intensity is 1, indicating a moderately bullish view [21] Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 20720, and the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 3022 [22] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract decreased by 55120, and the open interest decreased by 7232 [22] - **Inventory and News**: The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory was 61.60 million tons, and the LME Aluminum inventory was 47.96 million tons [22] - **Trend Intensity**: Aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy trend intensities are all 0, indicating a neutral view [24] Nickel and Stainless - Steel - **Price Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 122,530, and the stainless - steel main contract was 12,960 [26] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Nickel main contract decreased by 43,115, and the stainless - steel main contract decreased by 34,264 [26] - **Industry News**: Canada's Ontario Province may stop exporting nickel to the US; an Indonesian nickel - iron smelting park has suspended production [26][28][29] - **Trend Intensity**: Nickel and stainless - steel trend intensities are both 0, indicating a neutral view [31]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The report provides short - term trend forecasts for various commodities, including precious metals, base metals, energy, chemicals, and agricultural products, based on their fundamentals, market sentiment, and macro - industry news [2][5]. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Expected to break through new highs, with a trend strength of 2 [2][7][9]. - **Silver**: Likely to reach the previous high, with a trend strength of 2 [2][7][9]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Market sentiment has improved, leading to price increases, trend strength is 1 [2][11][13]. - **Zinc**: Expected to trade in a range, trend strength is 0 [2][14][15]. - **Lead**: Decreasing inventory supports prices, trend strength is 0 [2][17]. - **Tin**: Expected to trade in a range, trend strength is 1 [2][20][23]. - **Aluminum**: Expected to be slightly bullish in a volatile market, trend strength is 0 [2][24][26]. - **Alumina**: Expected to trade in a range, trend strength is 0 [2][24][26]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Attention should be paid to policy implementation progress, trend strength is 0 [24][26]. - **Nickel**: Narrow - range fluctuations based on fundamentals, with sentiment influenced by news, trend strength is 0 [2][28][33]. - **Stainless Steel**: Steel prices are expected to fluctuate in a narrow range, trend strength is 0 [2][28][33]. Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: The basis is slightly repaired, and the weak - side oscillation continues, trend strength is 0 [2][34][36]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Market sentiment is more volatile, and attention should be paid to the registration of warehouse receipts, trend strength is 0 [2][37][39]. - **Polysilicon**: Short - term fluctuations are significantly amplified, trend strength is 0 [2][37][39]. - **Iron Ore**: Macroeconomic expectations are volatile, leading to wide - range fluctuations, trend strength is 1 [2][40]. - **Rebar**: Excessive inventory accumulation leads to price oscillations and corrections, trend strength is 0 [2][42][44]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Excessive inventory accumulation leads to price oscillations and corrections, trend strength is 0 [2][42][44]. - **Silicon Ferroalloy**: Expected to trade in a wide range, trend strength is 0 [2][46][48]. - **Manganese Ferroalloy**: Expected to trade in a wide range, trend strength is 0 [2][46][48]. - **Coke**: Expected to trade in a wide range, trend strength is 1 [2][49]. - **Coking Coal**: Expected to trade in a wide range, trend strength is 1 [2][49]. - **Log**: Prices are expected to fluctuate repeatedly, trend strength is 0 [2][51][54]. - **Para - Xylene**: Supply - demand is in a tight balance, and a long - position spread strategy is recommended [2][55]. - **PTA**: A long - position spread strategy for monthly differences, and partial profit - taking for the long - PTA and short - MEG strategy [2][55]. - **MEG**: Partial profit - taking for the long - PTA and short - MEG strategy [2][55]. Others - **LPG**: Macroeconomic risks are increasing, and crude oil costs are rising [5]. - **Propylene**: Spot prices are still supported, but attention should be paid to the risk of price decline [5]. - **PVC**: The downward trend persists, with pressure on prices [5]. - **Fuel Oil**: Prices declined at night, and it may continue to be weaker than low - sulfur fuel oil in the short term [5]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Volatility has increased, and the price spread between high - and low - sulfur fuels in the overseas spot market has risen significantly [5]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: Expected to trade in a wide range [5]. - **Short - Fiber**: Expected to consolidate in a range, and a long - PF and short - PR strategy is recommended [5]. - **Bottle Chip**: Expected to consolidate in a range [5]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: Trading at a low level with limited upward momentum [5]. - **Pure Benzene**: Expected to trade with a weak - side oscillation [5]. - **Palm Oil**: Influenced by macro factors, prices are expected to rebound in a volatile market [5]. - **Soybean Oil**: Prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level, and the spread between soybean oil and palm oil is expected to narrow [5]. - **Soybean Meal**: The significant decline in the good - quality rate of US soybeans has a positive impact on prices [5]. - **Soybean No. 1**: Prices are expected to rebound and fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the market sentiment of the soybean market [5]. - **Corn**: Prices are expected to trade in a range [5]. - **Sugar**: Conab has lowered the production forecast for Brazil [5]. - **Cotton**: Attention should be paid to the listing of new crops [5]. - **Egg**: There is strong near - end game - playing [5]. - **Live Pig**: Market expectations have weakened [5]. - **Peanut**: Attention should be paid to the listing of new peanuts [5].