Report Information - Report Date: September 3, 2025 [1][4][9][12][15][17][22][25][26] - Report Title: Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Precious Metals and Base Metals Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - Gold is expected to break through new highs; silver is expected to reach the previous high [2][4] - Copper prices are rising due to improved market sentiment [2][9] - Zinc is expected to trade in a range [2][12] - Lead prices are supported by continuous inventory reduction [2][15] - Tin is expected to trade in a range [2][17] - Aluminum is expected to be moderately strong with fluctuations; alumina is expected to trade in a range; attention should be paid to the progress of policy implementation for cast aluminum alloy [2][22] - Nickel's fundamentals suggest narrow - range fluctuations, while news may stimulate market sentiment; stainless - steel prices are expected to move in a narrow range [2][26] Summary by Commodity Precious Metals Gold - **Price Performance**: The closing price of Shanghai Gold 2510 was 804.32 with a daily increase of 0.47%, and the night - session closing price was 813.00 with a 1.08% increase [5] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of Shanghai Gold 2510 decreased by 114,740 compared to the previous day, and the open interest decreased by 2,067 [5] - **ETF and Inventory**: The SPDR Gold ETF's position increased by 13 to 990.56, and the Shanghai Gold inventory increased by 447 to 40,191 kilograms [5] - **Trend Intensity**: Gold trend intensity is 2, indicating a strong bullish view [7] Silver - **Price Performance**: The closing price of Shanghai Silver 2510 was 9824 with a 0.52% daily increase, and the night - session closing price was 9836.00 with a 0.01% increase [5] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of Shanghai Silver 2510 decreased by 336,732 compared to the previous day, and the open interest decreased by 12,097 [5] - **ETF and Inventory**: The SLV Silver ETF's position (the day before yesterday) increased by 56 to 15,366.48, and the Shanghai Silver inventory increased by 8001 to 1,215,228 kilograms [5] - **Trend Intensity**: Silver trend intensity is 2, indicating a strong bullish view [7] Base Metals Copper - **Price Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 79,660 with a - 0.15% daily decrease, and the night - session closing price was 80410 with a 0.94% increase [9] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper main contract decreased by 16,804 compared to the previous day, and the open interest decreased by 579 [9] - **Inventory and News**: The Shanghai Copper inventory decreased by 699 to 19,501 tons. Free Port's Indonesian branch will complete the maintenance of the Gresik plant in early September [9][11] - **Trend Intensity**: Copper trend intensity is 1, indicating a moderately bullish view [11] Zinc - **Price Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 22325 with a 0.68% daily increase, and the LME Zinc 3M electronic - disk closing price was 2833 with a 0.68% increase [12] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Zinc main contract decreased by 14018, and the LME Zinc trading volume decreased by 5760 [12] - **Inventory and News**: The Shanghai Zinc futures inventory increased by 998 to 38955 tons, and the LME Zinc inventory decreased by 275 to 55600 tons. Eurozone inflation slightly rebounded in August [12][13] - **Trend Intensity**: Zinc trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view [13][14] Lead - **Price Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract was 16850 with a - 0.03% daily decrease, and the LME Lead 3M electronic - disk closing price was 2007 with a 0.50% increase [15] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Lead main contract increased by 2369, and the LME Lead trading volume decreased by 2581 [15] - **Inventory and News**: The Shanghai Lead futures inventory decreased by 373 to 56428 tons, and the LME Lead inventory decreased by 1525 to 258025 tons [15] - **Trend Intensity**: Lead trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view [15] Tin - **Price Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 273,980 with a 0.27% daily increase, and the night - session closing price was 274,130 with a - 0.08% decrease [18] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Tin main contract decreased by 75,860, and the open interest decreased by 1,036 [18] - **Inventory and News**: The Shanghai Tin inventory increased by 48 to 7,263 tons, and the LME Tin inventory increased by 20 to 2,175 tons [18] - **Trend Intensity**: Tin trend intensity is 1, indicating a moderately bullish view [21] Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 20720, and the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 3022 [22] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract decreased by 55120, and the open interest decreased by 7232 [22] - **Inventory and News**: The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory was 61.60 million tons, and the LME Aluminum inventory was 47.96 million tons [22] - **Trend Intensity**: Aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy trend intensities are all 0, indicating a neutral view [24] Nickel and Stainless - Steel - **Price Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 122,530, and the stainless - steel main contract was 12,960 [26] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Nickel main contract decreased by 43,115, and the stainless - steel main contract decreased by 34,264 [26] - **Industry News**: Canada's Ontario Province may stop exporting nickel to the US; an Indonesian nickel - iron smelting park has suspended production [26][28][29] - **Trend Intensity**: Nickel and stainless - steel trend intensities are both 0, indicating a neutral view [31]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The report provides short - term trend forecasts for various commodities, including precious metals, base metals, energy, chemicals, and agricultural products, based on their fundamentals, market sentiment, and macro - industry news [2][5]. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Expected to break through new highs, with a trend strength of 2 [2][7][9]. - **Silver**: Likely to reach the previous high, with a trend strength of 2 [2][7][9]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Market sentiment has improved, leading to price increases, trend strength is 1 [2][11][13]. - **Zinc**: Expected to trade in a range, trend strength is 0 [2][14][15]. - **Lead**: Decreasing inventory supports prices, trend strength is 0 [2][17]. - **Tin**: Expected to trade in a range, trend strength is 1 [2][20][23]. - **Aluminum**: Expected to be slightly bullish in a volatile market, trend strength is 0 [2][24][26]. - **Alumina**: Expected to trade in a range, trend strength is 0 [2][24][26]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Attention should be paid to policy implementation progress, trend strength is 0 [24][26]. - **Nickel**: Narrow - range fluctuations based on fundamentals, with sentiment influenced by news, trend strength is 0 [2][28][33]. - **Stainless Steel**: Steel prices are expected to fluctuate in a narrow range, trend strength is 0 [2][28][33]. Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: The basis is slightly repaired, and the weak - side oscillation continues, trend strength is 0 [2][34][36]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Market sentiment is more volatile, and attention should be paid to the registration of warehouse receipts, trend strength is 0 [2][37][39]. - **Polysilicon**: Short - term fluctuations are significantly amplified, trend strength is 0 [2][37][39]. - **Iron Ore**: Macroeconomic expectations are volatile, leading to wide - range fluctuations, trend strength is 1 [2][40]. - **Rebar**: Excessive inventory accumulation leads to price oscillations and corrections, trend strength is 0 [2][42][44]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Excessive inventory accumulation leads to price oscillations and corrections, trend strength is 0 [2][42][44]. - **Silicon Ferroalloy**: Expected to trade in a wide range, trend strength is 0 [2][46][48]. - **Manganese Ferroalloy**: Expected to trade in a wide range, trend strength is 0 [2][46][48]. - **Coke**: Expected to trade in a wide range, trend strength is 1 [2][49]. - **Coking Coal**: Expected to trade in a wide range, trend strength is 1 [2][49]. - **Log**: Prices are expected to fluctuate repeatedly, trend strength is 0 [2][51][54]. - **Para - Xylene**: Supply - demand is in a tight balance, and a long - position spread strategy is recommended [2][55]. - **PTA**: A long - position spread strategy for monthly differences, and partial profit - taking for the long - PTA and short - MEG strategy [2][55]. - **MEG**: Partial profit - taking for the long - PTA and short - MEG strategy [2][55]. Others - **LPG**: Macroeconomic risks are increasing, and crude oil costs are rising [5]. - **Propylene**: Spot prices are still supported, but attention should be paid to the risk of price decline [5]. - **PVC**: The downward trend persists, with pressure on prices [5]. - **Fuel Oil**: Prices declined at night, and it may continue to be weaker than low - sulfur fuel oil in the short term [5]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Volatility has increased, and the price spread between high - and low - sulfur fuels in the overseas spot market has risen significantly [5]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: Expected to trade in a wide range [5]. - **Short - Fiber**: Expected to consolidate in a range, and a long - PF and short - PR strategy is recommended [5]. - **Bottle Chip**: Expected to consolidate in a range [5]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: Trading at a low level with limited upward momentum [5]. - **Pure Benzene**: Expected to trade with a weak - side oscillation [5]. - **Palm Oil**: Influenced by macro factors, prices are expected to rebound in a volatile market [5]. - **Soybean Oil**: Prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level, and the spread between soybean oil and palm oil is expected to narrow [5]. - **Soybean Meal**: The significant decline in the good - quality rate of US soybeans has a positive impact on prices [5]. - **Soybean No. 1**: Prices are expected to rebound and fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the market sentiment of the soybean market [5]. - **Corn**: Prices are expected to trade in a range [5]. - **Sugar**: Conab has lowered the production forecast for Brazil [5]. - **Cotton**: Attention should be paid to the listing of new crops [5]. - **Egg**: There is strong near - end game - playing [5]. - **Live Pig**: Market expectations have weakened [5]. - **Peanut**: Attention should be paid to the listing of new peanuts [5].