有色金属观点更新 20251009 摘要 市场上有传言称几内亚西芒杜铁矿需配套建设冶炼厂才能出口，但我们认为这 种可能性很低。根据我们的测算，如果要在几内亚建设配套的钢铁冶炼厂，每 吨钢需要 150 度电，而几内亚目前的用电量远不足以支持这一需求，其人均用 电量在全球范围内也处于较低水平。此外，几内亚主要依赖天然气和风能发电， 而非传统的煤电或水电。因此，从基础设施角度来看，这种要求不太现实。 中国与 BHP 之间关于结算币种的问题会如何影响市场？ 最近网上有传言称 BHP 与中国矿产资源集团在结算币种问题上存在分歧，并因 此暂停合作。如果这一情况属实，将对中国和澳大利亚的铁矿石贸易产生重大 影响。目前，中国是全球最大的海运铁矿石进口国，而澳大利亚则高度依赖对 中国的出口。从逻辑推理来看，如果双方完全停止合作，将对价格产生长期影 响。然而，目前海外市场反应平淡，BHP 等公司的股票变化不大，而中国 A 股 相关股票如金岭矿业、海南矿业等则涨势明显。这表明国内投资者对这一消息 更为敏感。 几内亚西芒杜铁矿项目预计无需配套冶炼厂即可出口，因当地电力基础 设施难以支持大规模钢铁冶炼，且主要依赖天然气和风能发电。 若 ...

敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 扫码获取更多服务 宏观经济报告 8 月利润同比高增是低基数、反内卷带动上游行业毛利率上行、投资收益非常规节点确认等因素共同作用的结果，随 着基数走高、投资收益对利润的支持减弱，9 月利润同比增速或开始回落。更值得关注的是反内卷带来的上游企业毛 利率上行是否可持续，从大宗商品价格上看，9 月前三周商务部生产资料价格指数持续下滑，均值环比 9 月下滑了 0.5%，需关注后续反内卷对大宗商品价格和企业利润的影响。 风险提示 中美贸易摩擦、关税上调和全球供应链调整，或致出口波动及企业利润下滑等风险加大 国内政策、海外地缘政治等可能持续影响大宗商品价格及相关行业利润表现 关注后续国内基本面变化，跟踪后续景气度波动以及对企业营业收入和利润的影响 8 月规模以上工业企业利润同比大幅回升 21 个百分点至 19.8%，低基数、反内卷下上游行业毛利率改善、个别行业投 资收益确认是推动本月当月利润同比大幅走高的三个主要原因。 按照估算，低基数贡献了 6.7 个百分点1的利润增速回升，位居第三。除基数外，8 月企业利润环比表现并不弱，8 月 企业利润环比增长 15.2%，显著高于过去 3 年-2.5% ...

数据来源：中国海关，智研咨询整理 根据中国海关数据显示：2025年7月中国角钢及型钢出口数量为66万吨，同比增长49.7%，出口金额为 3.61亿美元，同比增长31.1%。 近一年中国角钢及型钢出口情况统计图 相关报告：智研咨询发布的《2025-2031年中国黑色金属行业市场研究分析及前景战略研判报告》 知前沿，问智研。智研咨询是中国一流产业咨询机构，十数年持续深耕产业研究领域，提供深度产业研 究报告、商业计划书、可行性研究报告及定制服务等一站式产业咨询服务。专业的角度、品质化的服 务、敏锐的市场洞察力，专注于提供完善的产业解决方案，为您的投资决策赋能。 ...

每经AI快讯，永兴材料（SZ 002756，收盘价：35.73元）9月10日晚间发布公告称，公司第七届第一次 董事会临时会议于2025年9月10日在公司二楼会议室召开。会议审议了《关于选举董事长暨代表公司执 行事务的董事的议案》等文件。 2025年1至6月份，永兴材料的营业收入构成为：黑色金属冶炼及压延加工业占比76.65%，锂矿采选及 锂盐制造业占比23.35%。 截至发稿，永兴材料市值为193亿元。 （记者 曾健辉） 每经头条（nbdtoutiao）——"史上最丑"与"丑上最薄"：iPhone 17系列背后的新战事 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The report provides short - term trend forecasts for various commodities, including precious metals, base metals, energy, chemicals, and agricultural products, based on their fundamentals, market sentiment, and macro - industry news [2][5]. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Expected to break through new highs, with a trend strength of 2 [2][7][9]. - **Silver**: Likely to reach the previous high, with a trend strength of 2 [2][7][9]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Market sentiment has improved, leading to price increases, trend strength is 1 [2][11][13]. - **Zinc**: Expected to trade in a range, trend strength is 0 [2][14][15]. - **Lead**: Decreasing inventory supports prices, trend strength is 0 [2][17]. - **Tin**: Expected to trade in a range, trend strength is 1 [2][20][23]. - **Aluminum**: Expected to be slightly bullish in a volatile market, trend strength is 0 [2][24][26]. - **Alumina**: Expected to trade in a range, trend strength is 0 [2][24][26]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Attention should be paid to policy implementation progress, trend strength is 0 [24][26]. - **Nickel**: Narrow - range fluctuations based on fundamentals, with sentiment influenced by news, trend strength is 0 [2][28][33]. - **Stainless Steel**: Steel prices are expected to fluctuate in a narrow range, trend strength is 0 [2][28][33]. Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: The basis is slightly repaired, and the weak - side oscillation continues, trend strength is 0 [2][34][36]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Market sentiment is more volatile, and attention should be paid to the registration of warehouse receipts, trend strength is 0 [2][37][39]. - **Polysilicon**: Short - term fluctuations are significantly amplified, trend strength is 0 [2][37][39]. - **Iron Ore**: Macroeconomic expectations are volatile, leading to wide - range fluctuations, trend strength is 1 [2][40]. - **Rebar**: Excessive inventory accumulation leads to price oscillations and corrections, trend strength is 0 [2][42][44]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Excessive inventory accumulation leads to price oscillations and corrections, trend strength is 0 [2][42][44]. - **Silicon Ferroalloy**: Expected to trade in a wide range, trend strength is 0 [2][46][48]. - **Manganese Ferroalloy**: Expected to trade in a wide range, trend strength is 0 [2][46][48]. - **Coke**: Expected to trade in a wide range, trend strength is 1 [2][49]. - **Coking Coal**: Expected to trade in a wide range, trend strength is 1 [2][49]. - **Log**: Prices are expected to fluctuate repeatedly, trend strength is 0 [2][51][54]. - **Para - Xylene**: Supply - demand is in a tight balance, and a long - position spread strategy is recommended [2][55]. - **PTA**: A long - position spread strategy for monthly differences, and partial profit - taking for the long - PTA and short - MEG strategy [2][55]. - **MEG**: Partial profit - taking for the long - PTA and short - MEG strategy [2][55]. Others - **LPG**: Macroeconomic risks are increasing, and crude oil costs are rising [5]. - **Propylene**: Spot prices are still supported, but attention should be paid to the risk of price decline [5]. - **PVC**: The downward trend persists, with pressure on prices [5]. - **Fuel Oil**: Prices declined at night, and it may continue to be weaker than low - sulfur fuel oil in the short term [5]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Volatility has increased, and the price spread between high - and low - sulfur fuels in the overseas spot market has risen significantly [5]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: Expected to trade in a wide range [5]. - **Short - Fiber**: Expected to consolidate in a range, and a long - PF and short - PR strategy is recommended [5]. - **Bottle Chip**: Expected to consolidate in a range [5]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: Trading at a low level with limited upward momentum [5]. - **Pure Benzene**: Expected to trade with a weak - side oscillation [5]. - **Palm Oil**: Influenced by macro factors, prices are expected to rebound in a volatile market [5]. - **Soybean Oil**: Prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level, and the spread between soybean oil and palm oil is expected to narrow [5]. - **Soybean Meal**: The significant decline in the good - quality rate of US soybeans has a positive impact on prices [5]. - **Soybean No. 1**: Prices are expected to rebound and fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the market sentiment of the soybean market [5]. - **Corn**: Prices are expected to trade in a range [5]. - **Sugar**: Conab has lowered the production forecast for Brazil [5]. - **Cotton**: Attention should be paid to the listing of new crops [5]. - **Egg**: There is strong near - end game - playing [5]. - **Live Pig**: Market expectations have weakened [5]. - **Peanut**: Attention should be paid to the listing of new peanuts [5].

香 港 交 易 及 結 算 所 有 限 公 司 及 香 港 聯 合 交 易 所 有 限 公 司 對 本 公 告 的 內 容 概 不 負 責 ， 對 其 準 確 性 或 完 整 性 亦 不 發 表 任 何 聲 明 ， 並 明 確 表 示，概不 對 因 本 公 告 全 部 或 任 何 部 分 內 容 而 產 生 或 因 倚 賴 該 等 內 容 而 引 致 的 任 何 損 失 承 擔 任 何 責 任。 海外監管公告 本公告乃根據《香港聯合交易所有限公司證券上市規則》第 13.10B 條作出。 茲載列重慶鋼鐵股份有限公司（「本公司」）於 2 0 2 5 年 8 月 2 8 日在上海 證券報及上海證券交易所網頁（www.ss e . c om. c n）（股票代碼：60 1 0 0 5） 及上海證券報刊載之《2 0 2 5 年半年度報告》。 承 董 事 會 命 重 慶 鋼 鐵 股 份 有 限 公 司 匡 雲 龍 董 事 會 秘 書 中國重慶，2025 年 8 月 27 日 於 本 公 告 日 期 ， 本 公 司 的 董 事 為 ： 王 虎 祥 先 生 （ 執 行 董 事 ） 、 孟 文 旺 先 生 （ 執 行 董 事 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report indicates a significant decline in revenue and net profit for Chongqing Iron and Steel Co., Ltd. in the first half of 2025, attributed to a focus on cost reduction and efficiency improvement amidst challenging market conditions [2][3]. Company Overview and Financial Indicators - The company reported a total revenue of approximately 13.09 billion RMB, a decrease of 13.26% compared to the same period last year [2][3]. - The total profit for the period was a loss of approximately 129.92 million RMB, an improvement from a loss of 812.92 million RMB in the previous year [2][3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was approximately -131.02 million RMB, compared to -689.21 million RMB in the previous year [2][3]. - The company's total assets increased slightly to approximately 35.51 billion RMB, up 0.10% from the previous year [2][3]. Industry and Main Business Situation - The steel industry experienced a decline in crude steel production by 3% year-on-year, while steel product output increased [3][4]. - The average price of imported iron ore decreased by 17.7% year-on-year, impacting the overall cost structure of steel production [3][4]. - The average steel price index in China fell by 13.35% year-on-year, reflecting a challenging pricing environment for steel products [3][4]. Operational Performance Analysis - The company focused on cost reduction and efficiency improvements, achieving a reduction in iron water costs by 490 RMB per ton compared to 2024 [4][5]. - The company reported a 7% increase in cash flow from operating activities, totaling approximately 880.44 million RMB [2][3]. - The company implemented quality management initiatives, resulting in a 40% reduction in quality losses compared to 2024 [4][5]. Future Outlook - The company plans to enhance efficiency across various operational aspects, including resource allocation and inventory management, to mitigate risks associated with the long-term downturn in the steel industry [4][5].

Core Insights - The July PPI improved on a month-on-month basis but remained unchanged year-on-year at -3.6%, slightly below market expectations, indicating a disconnect in price transmission from upstream raw materials to downstream industries [1][2] - The "anti-involution" policy has led to significant price increases in key commodities such as coal, steel, and lithium, but these increases have not effectively translated into higher industrial product prices [2][3] - The ongoing "pig cycle misalignment" has resulted in CPI slightly exceeding market expectations, driven by unexpected price increases in core goods, energy, and other services [5][6] PPI Analysis - The month-on-month PPI improved due to rising commodity prices, but the year-on-year figure did not show improvement, highlighting weak downstream demand and limited pricing power for enterprises [1][3] - The analysis framework indicates that while upstream raw material prices have improved, the PPI for downstream industries has continued to decline, particularly in the export chain [4] - The dual impact of supply-side policies and demand-side pressures is evident, with the export chain facing significant downward pressure [4] CPI Insights - The CPI for July was reported at 0.0% year-on-year, slightly above the expected -0.1%, driven by durable goods benefiting from trade-in subsidies and rising energy prices [5][6] - The increase in CPI was significantly influenced by the price hikes in gold and platinum jewelry, contributing approximately 0.22 percentage points to the overall CPI [5] - Expectations for CPI improvement are projected for September, considering the ongoing misalignment in the pig cycle and slow recovery in consumer spending [6] Market Implications - The bond market may experience low volatility as CPI and PPI figures align closely with market expectations, with a focus on inflation recovery and potential demand-side policies [7] - The overall economic environment remains sensitive to both domestic policy effectiveness and international trade dynamics, which could influence future market performance [7]

Price Index Insights - In July, the main raw material purchase price index and the factory price index were 51.5% and 48.3%, respectively, increasing by 3.1 and 2.1 percentage points from the previous month[8] - The main raw material purchase price index returned above the threshold for the first time in five months, indicating a strong response from enterprises to price expectations under the "anti-involution" policy[8] - The black metal smelting and rolling industry had the highest factory price index at 88.9%, with a month-on-month increase of 80.1 percentage points and a year-on-year increase of 74.5 percentage points[14] PMI Performance by Sector - The comprehensive PMI for "anti-involution" industries recorded 48% in July, up from 47.8% in the previous month, but still below the critical point[21] - Non-"anti-involution" industries maintained a PMI of 50.1%, down from 50.9%, indicating continued expansion[21] - Different enterprise sizes showed varied performance, with large, medium, and small enterprises' PMI at 50.3%, 49.5%, and 46.4%, respectively, reflecting a decline for large and small enterprises while medium enterprises improved[25] Policy and Seasonal Effects - The July Politburo meeting calibrated market expectations for the "anti-involution" policy, suggesting that the manufacturing PMI may remain below the threshold in August[26] - Extreme weather conditions, including record rainfall in Hebei and Inner Mongolia, are expected to further impact production in July and August, leading to a weaker PMI outlook[39] - The "anti-involution" policy's first month showed a divergence in PMI across sectors and enterprise types, influenced by both policy and seasonal effects[25] Risk Factors - Potential risks include domestic policy effectiveness falling short of expectations and unexpected changes in international geopolitical situations[45] - Measurement errors in PMI indicators related to "anti-involution" industries may arise due to incomplete industry self-regulation[45]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The futures prices of coking coal and coke declined due to market sentiment fluctuations, but the spot market maintained low inventories and strong rigid demand, with price support still in place. The supply - demand of coking coal and coke remained slightly tight, and the fifth round of price increase for coke started. There was a policy bottom, and buying opportunities after price corrections could be considered [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Overview - On July 31, all black - series commodity futures turned down. The closing price of rebar was 3205 yuan/ton, down 4.19%; the hot - rolled coil futures closed at 3390 yuan/ton, down 3.56%; the iron ore futures closed at 779 yuan/ton; coking coal and coke declined, with coking coal hitting the daily limit down [1] Market Analysis - The decline in the futures market cooled the previous positive sentiment. Some traders sold to realize profits, and the increase in auctions narrowed. Extreme rain in coal - producing areas led to a temporary reduction in coal supply. Coking coal demand remained strong due to high downstream coke - enterprise operating rates and high pig - iron production. Coal mine pre - sales would last until mid - August. The inventory of washed coal plants and coking coal mines reached low levels. After the fourth round of price increases for coke, the profits of coke enterprises continued to shrink, some reduced production, and supply tightened. Steel mills and traders had good procurement enthusiasm, and coke inventories at coking plants were low. The coking industry decided to raise coke prices starting from July 31 [1] Investment Suggestions - For iron ore, pay attention to supply - demand changes and inventory levels and avoid chasing high prices. For rebar, take a short - term oscillatory approach and focus on the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar. For hot - rolled coil, take a short - term high - level consolidation approach and focus on supply - demand changes. For coking coal and coke, pay attention to the oscillatory market after the decline stabilizes or the strength - weakness relationship between the two [1]