2026 年 1 月 9 日 总量研究 关注"涨价潮"的扩散 ——2025 年 12 月价格数据点评 作者 分析师：赵格格 执业证书编号：S0930521010001 0755-23946159 zhaogege@ebscn.com 分析师：刘星辰 执业证书编号：S0930522030001 021-52523880 liuxc@ebscn.com 相关研报 CPI 涨势能否延续？——2025 年 11 月价格 数据点评(2025-12-10) PPI 环比转正，谁是拉手？——2025 年 10 月价格数据点评（2025-11-09） CPI 同比何时有望转正？——2025 年 9 月 价格数据点评（2025-10-15） PPI 迎来上行拐点——2025 年 8 月价格数 据点评（2025-09-10） "反内卷"效果初现——2025 年 7 月价格 数据点评（2025-08-09） 核心通胀继续回暖——2025 年 6 月价格数 据点评（2025-07-09） 如何看待分化的物价？——2025 年 5 月价 格数据点评（2025-06-09） 国内物价运行好于预期——2025 年 4 月价 格数据点评（2 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - The steel market shows a pattern of macro - expectation implementation and price fluctuations. The iron ore market has intensifying supply - demand contradictions and wide - range price oscillations. The coking coal and coke market is affected by supply expectations and shows an oscillatory trend. The thermal coal market has weak spot prices and different views at ports [1][2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: The main contract of rebar futures closed at 3,074 yuan/ton, and the main contract of hot - rolled coil at 3,233 yuan/ton. Spot steel transactions were average, with prices rising slightly following the futures. National building materials transactions reached 101,217 [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Building materials' supply - demand fundamentals are improving, with decreasing production and low inventory pressure. Plate prices are suppressed by high inventory, but demand has resilience. Attention should be paid to demand, exports, production cuts, and profit changes during the off - season [1]. - **Strategy**: The unilateral strategy is to expect price oscillations, and there are no cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or option strategies [1]. Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: Iron ore futures prices oscillated. The 2605 contract closed at 753 yuan, down 0.92%. Spot prices fell slightly with few transactions, and steel mills restocked as needed [2]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: This week's iron ore shipments increased by 6.6% week - on - week to 3,592.5 million tons, with Australia up 4.3% and Brazil up 32.7%. Supply - demand contradictions are intensifying, inventory is rising, and some port supplies have weak liquidity, supporting high prices. Some steel mills have started production cuts, and there is an expectation of seasonal decline in molten iron. If port supply liquidity recovers, prices may face pressure [2]. - **Strategy**: The unilateral strategy is to expect price oscillations, and there are no cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or option strategies [2][3]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: Coking coal and coke futures prices oscillated strongly, with coking coal prices rebounding significantly. There was strong market wait - and - see sentiment for imported Mongolian coal [3]. - **Logic and Views**: For coking coal, supply is at a low level, and there is no obvious increase. Mongolian coal customs clearance is high, and overall supply - demand contradictions are not prominent. Steel mills' procurement is mainly for刚需, and the market's restocking willingness is weak. For coke, the second price cut has been implemented, profits are shrinking, supply has declined slightly, and demand is weak due to some steel mill overhauls and lack of winter - storage restocking [3][4]. - **Strategy**: Both coking coal and coke are expected to oscillate, and there are no cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or option strategies [3][4]. Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the production areas, coal prices are weak, and snow has affected shipments. Some coal mines have stopped production. At ports, there are different views. Some traders think coal prices will stabilize due to increased daily consumption in cold weather, while others are selling at reduced prices due to high inventory and turnover requirements. Import coal has great pressure, and the market is inactive [4]. - **Demand and Logic**: Coal prices have been weak due to lower - than - expected downstream consumption and high inventory. Some coal mines will stop production after completing annual tasks, and supply improvement is difficult. In the long - term, supply pattern changes, non - power coal consumption, and restocking should be monitored [4][5]. - **Strategy**: Attention should be paid to coal mine safety supervision, port inventory changes, daily consumption of power and chemical coal, and other unexpected events [6].

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In November 2025, the CPI increased by 0.7% year-on-year, up from 0.2% in the previous month, aligning with market expectations[2] - The main driver for the CPI increase was the turnaround in food prices, particularly fresh vegetable prices, which rose by 14.5% year-on-year, compared to a decline of 7.3% in the previous month[4][5] - Core CPI remained stable at 1.2% year-on-year, with gold prices contributing significantly to this stability, while service prices showed a slowdown due to seasonal demand[6] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The PPI decreased by 2.2% year-on-year in November, slightly worse than the previous month's decline of 2.1%, primarily due to a high base effect from the previous year[8] - PPI showed a month-on-month increase of 0.1%, marking the second consecutive month of growth, driven by rising prices in the coal and non-ferrous metal sectors[8][9] - The "anti-involution" effect is evident as downstream consumer goods prices stabilize, while upstream coal and metal prices continue to rise[11] Group 3: Future Outlook - The CPI is expected to maintain its upward trend in December, supported by low base effects and rising food prices, with a projected average CPI growth rate of 0.7% for the coming year[10] - The PPI's year-on-year decline is anticipated to narrow, influenced by global manufacturing recovery and domestic supply-demand adjustments, although the timing for a return to positive growth remains uncertain[11] - The recovery of domestic demand and the potential for a rebound in pork prices are critical factors that could influence CPI trends in the upcoming months[10]

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In October 2025, the CPI increased by 0.2% year-on-year, reversing a decline of 0.3% from the previous month[2] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 1.2%, marking the highest increase since March 2024 and expanding for six consecutive months[6] - The tail effect on CPI was approximately -0.6%, narrowing by 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating reduced drag from previous price declines[6] Group 2: PPI Insights - The PPI decreased by 2.1% year-on-year, but the decline narrowed by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month, marking the third consecutive month of narrowing[2][6] - The PPI increased by 0.1% month-on-month, the first increase of the year, driven primarily by rising international non-ferrous metal prices[6] - General daily goods prices saw a significant month-on-month increase of 0.7%, suggesting improved price transmission[6] Group 3: Sector-Specific Trends - Food prices fell by 2.9% year-on-year, contributing approximately 0.54 percentage points to the CPI decline, while energy prices decreased by 2.4%, impacting CPI by about 0.18 percentage points[6] - Travel prices rose by 2.1% year-on-year, with airfares and hotel prices increasing by 8.9% and 2.8%, respectively, significantly contributing to the core CPI[6] - The prices of household appliances and communication tools related to consumption subsidies have decreased from previous highs, while transportation prices have remained stable for three consecutive months[6] Group 4: Risks and Considerations - Risks include the potential ineffectiveness of growth stabilization policies, unexpected severity of overseas economic downturns, and escalation of geopolitical conflicts[5]

Group 1: PPI Overview - The Producer Price Index (PPI) is primarily influenced by production materials, which account for approximately 75% of its weight, compared to 25% for living materials[6][22] - The internal structure of production materials shows that the price changes in extraction, raw materials, and processing industries generally align, with extraction industries exhibiting the highest volatility[8][9] - Living materials display a more diversified price trend across four categories, with food prices often moving contrary to upstream prices[9][10] Group 2: Industry Impact on PPI - The "Three Black and One Color" industries (black metals, petrochemicals, coal, and non-ferrous metals) significantly dominate PPI trends[17][22] - The highest industry weightings affecting PPI include computer, communication, and other electronic equipment manufacturing at 10.84%, followed by automotive manufacturing at 7.43%[16][20] - The correlation between crude oil prices and PPI is strong, with a coefficient of 0.86 since 2014, indicating that oil prices are a core factor influencing PPI trends[18][21] Group 3: Risk Factors - Key risk factors include geopolitical risks and unexpected increases in international oil prices, which could further impact PPI trends[25]

Manufacturing Sector Insights - The manufacturing PMI for September is 49.8%, a month-on-month increase of 0.4 percentage points, indicating a slight recovery within the contraction zone[3] - The new orders index stands at 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, while the new export orders index increased by 0.6 percentage points to 47.8%[3] - The production index rose to 51.9%, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 1.1 percentage points, indicating active manufacturing activities[3] Price and Demand Dynamics - The major raw material purchase price index remains high at 53.2%, despite a month-on-month decline of 0.1 percentage points[8] - The "anti-involution" policy has supported the prices in certain manufacturing sub-sectors, with the specialized equipment manufacturing price index rising by 2.2 percentage points[2] - However, the overall demand remains weak, as evidenced by declines in finished goods inventory and new orders in the electrical machinery and general equipment manufacturing sectors[2] Non-Manufacturing Sector Overview - The non-manufacturing PMI for September is 50.0%, down 0.3 percentage points, indicating stagnation at the threshold level[4] - The new orders index for non-manufacturing is at 46.0%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points, while the new export orders index improved to 49.8%, up 1.0 percentage points[10] - The employment index in the non-manufacturing sector is at 45.0%, reflecting a contraction with a month-on-month decline of 0.6 percentage points[10] Sector-Specific Performance - The construction sector's PMI is at 49.3%, with a new orders index of 42.2%, indicating continued contraction despite a slight month-on-month improvement[14] - The service sector PMI is at 50.1%, showing a slight decline of 0.4 percentage points, but still within the expansion zone[14] - Notably, the metal products and automotive manufacturing sectors have shown significant month-on-month improvements in their economic performance[16]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the non-ferrous metals industry, particularly focusing on iron ore, copper, cobalt, tin, and antimony markets, as well as the implications of geopolitical factors on these sectors [1][2][3][4][5][6][19][21]. Core Insights and Arguments Guinea Simandou Iron Ore Project - The Guinea Simandou iron ore project is expected to export without the need for a supporting smelting plant due to inadequate local power infrastructure [1][4]. - The project is projected to start logistics in 2025, with potential exports reaching 30 million to 60 million tons in 2026, and possibly 120 million tons in the next 2-3 years, significantly impacting global shipping trade [3]. Iron Ore Trade and Market Reactions - A potential pause in cooperation between China and BHP over settlement currency issues could significantly affect iron ore trade, although current overseas market reactions are muted [1][5]. - Domestic investors are more sensitive to these developments, as evidenced by stock movements in related companies [5]. Steel Industry Dynamics - Short-term control of iron ore imports to manage steel production is unlikely, with supply-side reforms being crucial for long-term industry health [1][6]. - High-quality companies like Baosteel and Hualing Steel are identified as having medium to long-term investment value due to low valuations and high dividend yields [6]. Copper Market Supply and Demand - The copper market is expected to face significant supply disruptions, with major producers like Teck Resources and Efenhau Mine lowering production forecasts [1][8]. - Global copper supply is projected to be tight in the first half of 2026, with prices potentially reaching historical highs of $12,000 to $14,000 per ton [1][12]. AI and Data Center Demand for Copper - The demand for copper is significantly driven by AI and data centers, with each cabinet now using approximately 300 kg of copper, leading to an annual increase in demand of about 100,000 tons from AI-related equipment alone [9][12]. Cobalt Market Trends - Cobalt prices have risen to around 350,000 RMB per ton, with expectations to reach 400,000 to 450,000 RMB in Q4 2025 [1][16]. - Companies like Huayou Cobalt are expected to see profit increases due to rising cobalt prices [1][16]. Tin and Antimony Market Outlook - China's antimony exports have shown a significant increase since August 2025, highlighting its strategic value amid U.S. supply chain concerns [2][19]. - Huaxi Nonferrous is projected to increase tin production by 66%, with profits potentially reaching 1.6 billion RMB [2][19]. Strategic Metal Valuation - The valuation of strategic metals like copper and silver is expected to rise due to increased global focus on these resources [13]. - Companies like Zijin Mining are projected to have significant profit potential based on current market conditions [13]. Other Important Insights - The overall performance of the non-ferrous metals market has been strong, with steel markets also showing positive trends influenced by the Guinea Simandou project [3]. - The importance of supply chain security and strategic resource management is emphasized, particularly in light of geopolitical tensions and trade restrictions [21][25]. - The recovery of tin and antimony supply chains is critical, with disruptions in Indonesia and Myanmar affecting global supply [19][20]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into market dynamics, company performance, and future trends in the non-ferrous metals industry.

Group 1: Profit Growth Analysis - In August, industrial enterprises' profits increased significantly by 21% year-on-year to 19.8%, driven by low base effects, improved upstream industry gross margins, and investment income recognition[4] - The low base contributed 6.7 percentage points to the profit growth, ranking as the third-largest factor[4] - August profits totaled 672.6 billion yuan, with an increase of 111.4 billion yuan year-on-year, where upstream manufacturing contributed 49.9% of this growth[7] Group 2: Sector-Specific Insights - The substantial improvement in upstream industrial profits was primarily from the black metal and non-ferrous metal smelting industries, which saw profit increases of 336 billion yuan and 128 billion yuan respectively[8] - The gross margin for black metal smelting rose to 7% in August from 2% in the same month last year, leading to a gross profit increase of 329 billion yuan[8] - Investment income in August rose by 502 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 66.6%, contributing 45% to the overall profit growth[9] Group 3: Future Outlook and Risks - As the base effects diminish and investment income support weakens, profit growth may decline in September[12] - The price index for production materials has been declining, with a 0.5% decrease in the average from early September, indicating potential impacts on commodity prices and enterprise profits[12] - Risks include increased volatility in exports and profit declines due to U.S.-China trade tensions and global supply chain adjustments[3]

Core Insights - The report by Zhiyan Consulting highlights significant growth in China's angle steel and section steel exports, with a notable increase in both quantity and value in July 2025 compared to the previous year [1]. Export Data Summary - In July 2025, China's angle steel and section steel export volume reached 660,000 tons, representing a year-on-year increase of 49.7% [1]. - The export value for the same period was $36.1 million, showing a year-on-year growth of 31.1% [1]. Industry Analysis - Zhiyan Consulting is recognized as a leading industry consulting firm in China, specializing in in-depth industry research and providing comprehensive consulting services, including feasibility studies and business plans [1]. - The firm emphasizes its commitment to delivering high-quality services and market insights to empower investment decisions [1].

Group 1 - The company Yongxing Materials (SZ 002756) held its first temporary board meeting of the seventh session on September 10, 2025, to discuss the election of the chairman and other related matters [1] - For the first half of 2025, Yongxing Materials reported that its revenue composition was 76.65% from black metal smelting and rolling industry, and 23.35% from lithium mining and lithium salt manufacturing [1] - As of the report date, Yongxing Materials has a market capitalization of 19.3 billion yuan [1]