Group 1 - COMEX gold inventory recorded at 1201.73 tons on August 15, a decrease of 0.18 tons from the previous trading day [1][2] - COMEX gold price closed at $3381.70 per ounce on August 15, down 0.02%, with an intraday high of $3394.80 and a low of $3377.70 [1][2] Group 2 - Expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September are rising, while concerns about tariff-related inflation persist [2] - The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) and import prices increased in July, making the upcoming Jackson Hole central bank policy symposium a focal point for the week [2] - India's Prime Minister Modi's proposed reduction in consumption tax is expected to boost the economy without harming government finances, potentially alleviating the impact of U.S. tariffs [2]

Group 1 - The gold price experienced significant volatility last week, influenced by multiple factors, leading to both cautious and optimistic market outlooks [1] - Early last week, gold prices fell below the critical level of $3300 per ounce due to stronger-than-expected US GDP growth and hawkish comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell [1] - The recent revision of US non-farm payroll data altered the previously weak trend of gold prices [1] Group 2 - Citibank raised its gold price forecast for the next three months from $3300 to $3500 per ounce, adjusting the expected trading range from $3100-$3500 to $3300-$3600 [3] - Concerns regarding US economic growth and tariff-related inflation are expected to intensify in the second half of the year, alongside a weakening dollar, which will support a moderate rise in gold prices [3] - Adrian Day, President of Adrian Day Asset Management, believes that the US job market is not as stable as suggested by Powell, and the new employment data increases the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in September, which may lead to a continued rise in gold prices [3] Group 3 - Gold is traditionally viewed as a safe-haven asset during periods of political and economic uncertainty, often performing well in low-interest-rate environments [3] - David Morrison, Senior Market Analyst at Trade Nation, suggests that gold prices need to consolidate for a period before gaining momentum to break through the $3400 level [3] - Chris Vecchio, Head of Futures Strategy and Forex at Tastylive, indicates that tariffs will also have a significant impact on market confidence in gold [4]

Group 1 - The chief economist of KPMG, Diane Swonk, indicates that there will be an increase in inflation related to tariffs [1]

Core Viewpoint - Invesco expects the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates, which may create a buying opportunity for long-term bonds [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Decision - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to decide to keep interest rates unchanged in the upcoming meeting [1] - This decision may encourage investors to increase their holdings in long-term bonds [1] Group 2: Inflation Indicators - Powell may mention initial signs of tariff-related inflation in categories such as furniture, appliances, and sporting goods [1] - These inflation indicators contribute to the committee's inclination to adopt a wait-and-see approach and refrain from immediate rate cuts [1] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The current environment may provide investors with an opportunity to extend along the yield curve and lock in attractive fixed-income asset yields [1] - Rate cuts are still expected to potentially begin later this year, which could benefit investors willing to take on interest rate risk [1]

Core Insights - The employment market remains strong and has not experienced a significant downturn [1] - Caution is advised until there is a better understanding of the inflation situation related to tariffs [1] Employment Market - The current state of the employment market is described as favorable, indicating resilience [1] - There is no immediate indication of a drastic decline in employment conditions [1] Inflation and Tariffs - The need for a cautious approach is emphasized until the implications of tariffs on inflation are fully understood [1] - This suggests potential volatility in economic conditions that could arise from tariff-related inflation [1]