1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - This week, the domestic natural rubber futures market declined while the overseas market rose. Due to the improvement in weather in overseas main - producing areas after the holiday, the increase in supply will put pressure on raw material prices, and the cost support may weaken. Although the spot inventory of natural rubber continues to accumulate and some downstream enterprises plan to have short - term maintenance during the "New Year's Day" holiday, after the holiday, funds will return to the market. Affected by the external market during the holiday, with limited self - contradiction driving, it is expected that the natural rubber price will follow the overall trend of the energy and chemical sector and fluctuate slightly stronger [9][102]. - Valuation: The spread between the main contracts of RU and NR remained stable at 2980 yuan/ton, and the spread between mixed standard rubber and the main contract of RU decreased by 65 yuan/ton. Investment strategies include waiting and seeing for RU in the unilateral aspect, waiting for opportunities to short at high prices; observing in the inter - period and cross - variety aspects [103]. 3. Summary by Directory Industry News - In the first 11 months of 2025, Vietnam's total exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber decreased by 5.6% year - on - year, and the total exports to China decreased by 0.6% year - on - year [5]. - On December 31, the Ministry of Commerce and other departments issued the implementation rules for the 2026 automobile trade - in subsidy, expanding the scope of support compared with 2025 [6]. - In the first 11 months of 2025, Thailand's total exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber increased by 4.6% year - on - year, and the total exports to China increased by 24% year - on - year [7]. Market Trends - This week, the domestic rubber futures market declined, while the overseas market rose. For example, the closing price of RU2605 decreased by 1.11% compared with the previous period, and the closing price of Singapore TSR20:2605 increased by 0.17% [9][11]. Price Basis and Calendar Spread - The basis of whole milk - RU05 increased by 26.04% compared with the previous period, and the 05 - 09 calendar spread increased by 100.00% compared with the previous period [12]. Other Spreads - Spreads such as RU - NR, RU - BR, NR - SICOM TSR20, and RU - JPX RSS3 decreased [16]. - This week, most rubber spot prices declined, and futures prices declined more, resulting in a stronger basis [20]. - The spread between whole milk and Thai mixed rubber and the spread between 3L and Thai mixed rubber widened [23]. Substitute Prices - The price of butadiene at the raw material end of butadiene rubber continued to rise, providing obvious bottom support for the short - term market price, and most spot offers maintained a firm price and tried to sell [29]. Capital Trends - The virtual - to - physical ratio and the settled funds of RU and NR both decreased. For example, the virtual - to - physical ratio of RU decreased by 16.46% compared with the previous period, and the settled funds decreased by 11.80% [32][34]. Fundamental Data Supply - Weather in Thai producing areas: The rainy season in southern Thailand is gradually coming to an end with decreasing rainfall, and the rainy season in northeastern Thailand has passed, but the rainfall is higher than the same period [37]. - Weather in domestic producing areas: The rainy seasons in Hainan and Yunnan producing areas have basically ended [39]. - Raw material prices: Due to the easing of overseas geopolitical tensions, raw material prices declined. For example, the price of cup lump in the Hat Yai market in Songkhla Province, Thailand, decreased by 2.54% compared with the previous period [41][43]. - Raw material spreads: The spread between water and cup in Thailand widened, the spread between Hainan glue going into the concentrated latex factory and going into the whole milk factory was stable, and Yunnan has basically stopped tapping [45]. - Upstream processing profit: As raw material prices declined, the rubber processing profit in Thailand generally improved. For example, the production profit of Thai standard rubber increased by 18.53% compared with the previous period [48][50]. - Delivery profit: The delivery profit in Hainan decreased, and Yunnan has basically stopped tapping, so the data update was suspended [53]. - Thai exports: In November, Thailand's natural rubber exports decreased month - on - month, with a slight increase in latex exports and a decrease in the exports of smoked sheets, standard rubber, and mixed rubber [60]. - Thai exports to China: In November, the quantity of Thailand's natural rubber exports to China decreased month - on - month, with an increase in the exports of latex, smoked sheets, and standard rubber and a decrease in mixed rubber [63]. - Indonesian exports: In October, Indonesia's total natural rubber exports decreased significantly year - on - year and month - on - month due to a large decrease in standard rubber exports, while the exports of mixed rubber continued to increase month - on - month. The total exports to China also decreased month - on - month [66]. - Vietnamese exports: In October, Vietnam's natural rubber exports increased month - on - month, with a large increase in latex exports. The exports to China increased seasonally, with large increases in standard rubber and latex exports [72]. - Ivorian exports: In November, Cote d'Ivoire's rubber exports decreased month - on - month, and the quantity of exports to China decreased significantly month - on - month [74]. - Rubber imports: In November, China's imports of natural rubber (including mixed rubber and composite rubber) were 643,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 25.98% and a year - on - year increase of 14.76%. The imports of Thai mixed rubber, Thai standard rubber, and Ivorian standard rubber increased significantly month - on - month, while the imports of Vietnamese standard rubber and mixed rubber decreased year - on - year [78]. Demand - Tire capacity utilization and inventory: Some enterprises have short - term maintenance plans during the "New Year's Day" holiday, mostly for 3 - 5 days, and most enterprises maintain normal production. Tire inventory continued to accumulate last week (the current data has not been updated) [81]. - Tire exports and heavy - truck sales: In November, heavy - truck sales increased month - on - month with a higher growth rate, passenger car sales continued to grow but the year - on - year and month - on - month growth rates continued to decline, and tire exports recovered slightly month - on - month [84]. - Road transport turnover: In November, the road freight turnover increased month - on - month, while the passenger turnover decreased month - on - month [88]. Inventory - Spot inventory: The current natural rubber inventory in China continued to accumulate seasonally. Qingdao's inventory increased, and the increase rate of the increase in light - colored rubber inventory compared with the previous period weakened [94][96]. - Futures inventory: The natural rubber futures inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange and the 20 - rubber futures inventory in the Shanghai International Energy Exchange both increased to some extent. For example, the natural rubber futures inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 7.09% compared with the previous week [99].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - This week, the view on natural rubber is to oscillate and consolidate [102] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry News - The European Parliament voted to postpone the implementation of EUDR by 12 months. The new implementation schedule is December 30, 2026, for large - and medium - sized operators and June 30, 2027, for small and micro operators [5] - Floods in southern Thailand may lead to a rubber shortage. At least 13 million rai of rubber plantations were affected, and the rubber production loss exceeded 20,000 tons [6] - In the first 10 months of 2025, Vietnam's total exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber decreased by 3.5% year - on - year, while exports to China increased by 3% [7] 3.2 Market Trends - This week, most domestic and foreign rubber futures closed higher, with NR slightly declining. On November 28, 2025, the closing price of RU2601 was 15,410 yuan/ton, up 1.12% from the previous period; NR2601 was 12,275 yuan/ton, down 0.08% [9][11] 3.3 Basis and Calendar Spread - On November 28, 2025, the basis of whole milk - RU01 was - 410 yuan/ton, down 5.13% from the previous period; the 01 - 05 calendar spread was - 35 yuan/ton, up 56.25% [15] 3.4 Other Spreads - RU - NR, RU - BR, and NR - SGX TSR20 spreads increased, while the RU - JPX RSS3 spread decreased [18] - In the import rubber market, traders mainly engaged in wheel - warehouse replacement. The far - month Thai mixed rubber weakened again after a reduction in buying orders, and the spot of Thai mixed rubber showed a near - end premium [21] - The spread between whole milk and Thai mixed rubber widened, while the spread between 3L and Thai mixed rubber narrowed [24] 3.5 Substitute Prices - The price of butadiene raw materials oscillated narrowly, and the cost did not boost the market price. The production profit of butadiene rubber remained at a good level. The domestic output of butadiene rubber decreased slightly, and the downstream continued to push down prices [30] 3.6 Capital Trends - The virtual - to - physical ratio of RU decreased, and the settled funds increased; the virtual - to - physical ratio of NR increased, and the settled funds also increased [33] 3.7 Fundamental Data 3.7.1 Supply - In Thailand, the southern region entered the rainy season with increased rainfall, while the rainfall in the northeast decreased seasonally. In China, the rainy seasons in Hainan and Yunnan have ended [38][40] - As domestic production areas gradually enter the production - reduction and tapping - suspension season, and there is continuous heavy rainfall and flood risks in southern Thailand and Vietnam, the supply tightening expectation has increased, and domestic raw material prices have remained firm [42] - The water - cup spread in Thailand widened. The spread of Hainan glue into the latex concentrate factory - into the whole - milk factory was stable, while the spread of Yunnan glue widened [46] - The processing profit of natural rubber has generally recovered, and the delivery profit in Hainan and Yunnan has continued to pick up [49][53] - In October, Thailand's natural rubber exports increased month - on - month, mainly contributed by standard rubber and mixed rubber. Exports to China also increased significantly [59][62] - In October, Indonesia's total natural rubber exports decreased year - on - year and month - on - month, mainly due to a significant reduction in standard rubber exports, while the mixed rubber exports continued to increase month - on - month [65] - In October, Vietnam's natural rubber exports increased month - on - month, with a large increase in latex exports. Exports to China rebounded seasonally, with large increases in standard rubber and latex [71] - In October, Cote d'Ivoire's natural rubber exports decreased month - on - month, while exports to China continued to increase year - on - year and month - on - month [73] - In October, China imported 510,800 tons of natural rubber (including mixed and composite rubber), a month - on - month decrease of 14.27% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.89% [77] 3.7.2 Demand - The capacity utilization rate of sample tire enterprises fluctuated. The inventory days of tires decreased, indicating a turning point in the tire inventory accumulation trend [83] - In October, the export of semi - steel tires continued to decline significantly month - on - month, and the export of all - steel tires decreased slightly month - on - month. The sales of heavy - duty trucks and passenger cars increased month - on - month, but the growth rate slowed down [84] - In October, the freight turnover of road transportation decreased month - on - month, while the passenger turnover improved month - on - month [87] 3.7.3 Inventory - The inventory of natural rubber increased significantly, showing a pattern of a decrease in light - colored rubber and an increase in dark - colored rubber. The inventory of dark - colored rubber in Qingdao Port increased at a larger amplitude [94] - The futures inventory of natural rubber and 20 - number rubber increased week - on - week [99] 3.8 This Week's View Summary - This week, the view on natural rubber is to oscillate and consolidate. As of November 23, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.08 million tons, a 1.7% increase. The supply side of tire enterprises is operating weakly [102][103]